$10 NLHE Full Ring: No idea what im doing here. General advice?

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 32/13/2

Villain had N/A for 3betting over like 40 hands. I called with aq because the 3bet was so small...


pokerstars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (9 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP1 ($10)
Hero (MP2) ($11.50)
MP3 ($13.02)
CO ($10)
Button ($10.03)
SB ($8)
BB ($10)
UTG ($18.22)
UTG+1 ($10.13)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with Q , A
UTG bets $0.25, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.25, 1 fold, CO raises to $0.60, 3 folds, UTG calls $0.35, Hero calls $0.35

Flop: ($1.95) Q , A , K (3 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks, CO bets $1.39, 1 fold, Hero calls $1.39

Turn: ($4.73) 3 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $8.01 (All-In), Hero ...

Total pot: $4.73 | Rake: $0.23

Yeah, that's about the grossest thing ever. I guess its a fold, but I'm not happy about it.

I think you should have bet that flop with the flush draw/straight possibilities.
With that shove, I would probably fold. There will be better spots to get it in.

I wasn't confident even on the flop. He hadntz 3bet before so I would think the only hand I'm beating is JJ and surely JJ can be ruled out on the turn

Firstly I really enjoy hand analysis it's by doing this I think that I really learn about poker. This is my first post as I am new to this forum.
The way I will tackle this is by approaching it as if I was analysing one of my own hands.

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 32/13/2
Do I have enough of a sample to base any judgements on? How many hands do I have on him in the data base. If it is not a large enough sample the stats are useless to my decision making.

If it is a large enough sample then with a VPIP of 32, he is a loose player. So he will attempt to play a very wide range of hands. The PFR rate gives an indication that he is normally aggressive preflop but on his raisable hand range. This can be readily worked out from Poker Tracker or HE Manager. On it's own an Af of 2 on it's own adds little to the picture. AF = (Raise% + Bet%) / Call%. He takes the initiative half the time - but a VPIP of 32 will account for a decnt proportion of this.

Villain had N/A for 3betting over like 40 hands.
The sample size is too small to make an inference.

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with Q , A
UTG bets $0.25, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.25, 1 fold, CO raises to $0.60, 3 folds, UTG calls $0.35, Hero calls $0.35


UTG 2.5BB bet is a rather weak raise, although it is early position. There's one caller then CO re-raises. He appears to be a loose/aggressive player. So from late positon this is not a very large re-raise (3.5BB). He also would have a relatively large range of playable hole cards. And he is in the powerful position of last to call after flop.

Flop: ($1.95) Q , A , K (3 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks, CO bets $1.39, 1 fold, Hero calls $1.39

CO needs to be holding - AA,KK,QQ or AK.
There is an opp flush draw.

Any bet would need to make the flush draw less attractive. Making a bet would give the initiative.

Turn: ($4.73) 3 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $8.01 (All-In), Hero ...

Obviously this is the dilema. Why would he go all in?
He has made the nuts or close (KJs or K10s.)
He has been checked into on the flop & river.
No possible Full House showing.
Attempting to take it down to pre-empt a full house.
His hole cards are a pair - and the all in is a bluff.

The question that remains for me is why did CO not attempt to add value?

I've seen donks doing the shove thing with the nuts as if they cant contain their' excitement and shove lol. I don't think it is a big sample size but I think it is enough to guess that he is 3betting only a small portion of his range...

Yes. That's a problem.

Thanks for posting your hand, I really enjoyed thinking about it.

watchtowel said:

I wasn't confident even on the flop. He hadntz 3bet before so I would think the only hand I'm beating is JJ and surely JJ can be ruled out on the turn

Click to expand...

If he had N/A, doesn't that mean he hasn't had an opportunity? So he's 0/0, and you can say nothing (much) about his 3bet range.

^ this, and you cant say that 45 hands is probably enough to say hes 3betting a small range of his hands, in just 45 hands its quite easy for the spewiest of 3bettors to not even get a chance to make some loose 3bets.

But... In general at 10nl people 3bet for value more than they 3bet as a bluff, so i prefer assuming people are 3betting for value until im proven otherwise like 300 hands down the line when i start to see that he's 3betting say 9% of time or whatever.

Just make sure you're not scared on the flop just because its his first 3bet you've seen in 45 hands, if this is the case then fold the AQ preflop to his 3bet because you cant expect to hit any flops better than AQK, i dont think it'd be terrible folding the AQ just you need a plan, either face the fact that you're gonna be oop with AQ and going to have to get it in on scary flops sometimes, or ditch a hand oop that you think is going to be crushed by his range

acky100 said:

if this is the case then fold the AQ preflop to his 3bet because you cant expect to hit any flops better than AQK

Click to expand...

Board: Ah Qh Kc
47.3% { TT+, AQs+, KQs, AQo+, KQo }
52.7% { AsQc }

The flop isn't that great... Against a random set of 3-bet hands we're barely a favorite. Compare that to a queen high flop, or an ace high flop...

Board: Qh 2s 9c
33.2% { TT+, AQs+, KQs, AQo+, KQo }
66.8% { AsQc }

Board: 2s Ac Tc
37.1% { TT+, AQs+, KQs, AQo+, KQo }
62.9% { AsQc }

Now villain has N/A for his 3-betting stats, but given he only raises 13% of hands preflop, and his VPIP split, we can usually assume that this isn't a good reg. He probably plays somewhat weaktightly, and isn't going to be semi-bluff shoving hands like JJ with a flush draw on the turn. This puts our equity at...

Board: Ah Qh Kc 3h
63% { QQ+, AQs+, KQs, AQo+, KQo }
37% { AsQc }

Now our pot odds are 1.6:1, or 38%. So this is pretty much neutral EV, hence why its a tough decision. Generally, in big pots you should lean towards calling. But I'm not sure villain 3-bets KQ, or even AQ, so really our equity could be a lot worse.

Its not an easy decision either way, but I'm leaning towards a fold. Villains at this level typically 3-bet very little, around 3% (rather than the 6% range I've done my equity calcs with). And if you shrink their 3-betting range to 3%, we don't have the equity required to call his overbet.