$10 NLHE Full Ring: KK in 3b pot on 963: standard stack off vs reg?

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mottotom27

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Stacks:
UTG - UTG ($10.26)
MP - MP ($11.71)
CO - CO ($10.41)
BTN - BTN ($10.71)
SB - Hero ($10.05)
BB - BB ($1.49)

Preflop: ($0.15, 6 players) Hero is SB with K:diamond: K:spade:
UTG raises to $0.30, 3 folds, Hero raises to $1.10, 1 fold, UTG calls $0.80

Flop: 9:diamond: 6:diamond: 3:club: ($2.30, 2 players)
Hero bets $1.50, UTG raises to $4.20, Hero ?

Villian is 15/12/2.7 over 735 hands. However i looked at is flop aggression and it was only 39%. does this mean he's always gonna have a set here?
 
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mottotom27

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This was actually a full ring table with 6 players left
 
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doomasiggy

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Stacks:
UTG - UTG ($10.26)
MP - MP ($11.71)
CO - CO ($10.41)
BTN - BTN ($10.71)
SB - Hero ($10.05)
BB - BB ($1.49)

Preflop: ($0.15, 6 players) Hero is SB with K<font color='red'>♦</font> K<font color='black'>♠</font>
UTG raises to $0.30, 3 folds, Hero raises to $1.10, 1 fold, UTG calls $0.80

Flop: 9<font color='red'>♦</font> 6<font color='red'>♦</font> 3<font color='black'>♣</font> ($2.30, 2 players)
Hero bets $1.50, UTG raises to $4.20, Hero ?

Villian is 15/12/2.7 over 735 hands. However i looked at is flop aggression and it was only 39%. does this mean he's always gonna have a set here?

Nope. He can have a ton of draws and a few overpairs as well. Dunno if he's even raising all pairs pre from utg although he should be. I'd say his range is probably something like ATdd-AQdd, 33, 66, 99-QQ, 78s, 45s. Doubt he calls all of them off though, so I call his raise planning on stacking all diamond turns, K turns, and board pairing turns (since that reduces the combos of sets in his range) if he barrels and checking back if he checks the turn.
 
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mottotom27

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I'd say his range is probably something like ATdd-AQdd, 33, 66, 99-QQ, 78s, 45s.

I think we can safely eliminate 87s and 45s from his UTG raising range. We're also OOP so "checking back" turn doesn't apply. But i agree with you he could definitely have a hand like AQdd, but if he does why not get the money in now to charge max for him to draw? Also i don't see why he'd raise/fold a hand like QQ or JJ, so wouldn't shoving now be best to maximise value before an overcard comes?
 
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erlanditas

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I think we can safely eliminate 87s and 45s from his UTG raising range. We're also OOP so "checking back" turn doesn't apply. But i agree with you he could definitely have a hand like AQdd, but if he does why not get the money in now to charge max for him to draw? Also i don't see why he'd raise/fold a hand like QQ or JJ, so wouldn't shoving now be best to maximise value before an overcard comes?

He have a straight draw + flush draw or just he thought maybe that you have AK so reraised you? but possibly its big draw, if he can too have 1010 JJ
 
akaRobbo

akaRobbo

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Okay, he doesn't have a straight draw. Its a nit reg UTG in a 3bet pot 100BB deep, dunno why yous are suggesting that.

Aces and Kings both 4 bet pre.

I think 3s and 6s both fold to your 3bet pre.

So his range is 99, TT, JJ, QQ, AKdd, AQdd

With the two diamonds there I think you have to GII. If he's slow played Aces or he got his set then its just GG I think.
 
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Karametric

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There probably aren't that many hands that are calling that 3bet

AQ-A10 diamond is a flip. qq-10 10 you crush. 99 crushes you. Everything else folded preflop (or 4bet preflop) or will fold when you raise.

my bet is they have QQ or JJ and are reraising part from value and part from not wanting you to see another diamond (maybe you would have AK diamond? their thoughts) I'd go allin. several hands you crush, several hands you flip, and one hand crushes you.

All thanks to 3betting preflop to get rid of other scary options.
 
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mottotom27

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He did have 99, but i now see i was ahead of his range. I've just been questioning so many decisions i make at 10nl since my shot hasn't been going well so far (down 5BI) but i guess i've just been running bad. today the variance continues, ran KK into AA, someone hit a two outer and nut flush lost to full house.
 
akaRobbo

akaRobbo

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He did have 99, but i now see i was ahead of his range. I've just been questioning so many decisions i make at 10nl since my shot hasn't been going well so far (down 5BI) but i guess i've just been running bad. today the variance continues, ran KK into AA, someone hit a two outer and nut flush lost to full house.

I went down 5BI, then went up 6BI all in one day yesterday at 10nl.

Swings happen. Just make sure you keep your cool and manage tilt.
 
suby_rafael

suby_rafael

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We have to shove here, no matter what villain has.

Advice :- Don't put people on sets and don't fold overpairs in such situations. :p
 
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Dagr3at0ne

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Reraise the flop is best play because there are so many suited connector hands which would call your 3 bet. very unlikely that he would reraise with 99 or 1010. Sounds like a drawing hand to me, since you made standard C bet.
 
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nygmen2007

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Based on the the information at hand is a nut flush draw or aa qq jj... I mean there was a chance he had a set... it wound up he did it is just bad luck.. I have run into that so many times already... just have to regrind..
 
duggs

duggs

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don't think this is half as clear as people are making out, range seems like 99/77 at least most of the time given positions
 
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tomnovember

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Based on the the information at hand is a nut flush draw or aa qq jj... I mean there was a chance he had a set... it wound up he did it is just bad luck.. I have run into that so many times already... just have to regrind..

Maybe also with sets for TT
 
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hffjd2000

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In my personal assessment, few hands we lose and many hands we will gonna win.

I go for shove here even though you actually lost. Its just a bad break and not a bad read.
 
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