$10 NLHE Full Ring: JJ in pos but got 3 bet frm BB pre ??

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Full Tilt - $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em (9 players)
Full Tilt Hand Converter Tool from CardsChat.com
SB: $9.94
BB: $10.85 VPIP 13% PFR 6% AGG19% HANDS 484 3BETS 2.6%
UTG: $4.88
UTG+1: $10.17
MP: $3.45
MP+1: $3.90
MP+2: $6.03
CO: $15.32
BTN Hero: $10
Pre-flop: ($0.15) Hero is BTN and dealt :jd4: :jh4:
UTG calls $0.10, 5 folds, Hero raises to $0.50, SB folds, BB raises to $1.65, so we calling here?? Or are we crushed:rolleyes:
 
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Oh forgot Utg folded pre i left that out//
 
brank

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I think this is an easy fold pre. 2.6% 3 bet has you crushed.
 
mrmonkey

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Normally I would think 2.6% 3bet from a 6% PFR villain has JJ beat, but since this is a button vs BB situation I'm not entirely sure.

Have you been stealing a lot? This could be a blind defense. Since villain is uber passive with 19% AFq and you have position, I might actually call this and see what the flop brings and how the villain leads. Worst case scenario and villain has QQ+, we still are in position and have decent equity to set mine if we think villain will get stacks in with an overpair.
 
acky100

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Yeah im gritting my teeth, punching the screen and folding unless we've been stealing like this a lot, ive also noticed a lot of fish at 10nl will 3bet from the blinds but a lot of the time you can tell whether they have it on their 3bet sizing 1.65 is more than 3x our raise so im more inclined to fold here compared to when the villain raises to say 1.20, ive also noticed a lot of the 4 dollar ss'ers like to 3bet just under 3x when theyre bluffing you in the blinds and 3x or more when they actually want a call
 
bgomez89

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Normally I would think 2.6% 3bet from a 6% PFR villain has JJ beat, but since this is a button vs BB situation I'm not entirely sure.

Have you been stealing a lot? This could be a blind defense. Since villain is uber passive with 19% AFq and you have position, I might actually call this and see what the flop brings and how the villain leads. Worst case scenario and villain has QQ+, we still are in position and have decent equity to set mine if we think villain will get stacks in with an overpair.

So you're pretty much going to call in position and call down if the board is low or are you folding at some point? Btw we don't have the odds to setmine with 100bb effective
 
mrmonkey

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So you're pretty much going to call in position and call down if the board is low or are you folding at some point? Btw we don't have the odds to setmine with 100bb effective

No, calling with the assumption that villain's range is what was stated. Since villain is extremely passive, we can assume villain has made a hand when he leads OOP and we fold to aggression... and would likely check AQ+ type hands if he missed the flop. If villain shows weakness we have fold equity since he is also pretty nitty... although I'd say our own playing style and stats in villain's HUD need to be taken into consideration.

Regarding set-mining, we have $1.10 to put in with $8.35 behind should we call. It's right on the cusp, but about neutral odds as the odds to hit a set on the flop are roughly 7.5:1
 
bgomez89

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No, calling with the assumption that villain's range is what was stated. Since villain is extremely passive, we can assume villain has made a hand when he leads OOP and we fold to aggression... and would likely check AQ+ type hands if he missed the flop. If villain shows weakness we have fold equity since he is also pretty nitty... although I'd say our own playing style and stats in villain's HUD need to be taken into consideration.

Regarding set-mining, we have $1.10 to put in with $8.35 behind should we call. It's right on the cusp, but about neutral odds as the odds to hit a set on the flop are roughly 7.5:1

I wonder if WVH and Stu would be cool if I quoted them:

As a general rule, unless stacks are deep, you can't profitably set mine in 3bet pots.

Do you think the stacks are big enough?

Is 10:1 really enough for set-mining in a cash game?
Harrington is advising 25:1 and I think Miller 15:1 to make up for the times you hit your set but don't get to play for stacks

Also calling a 3bet just to fold to any bet on any flop that doesn't give us a set seems bad to me
 
mrmonkey

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This isn't simply a call to set mine for set mining sake though.

If someone gave me 7.5:1 odds to set mine, I wouldn't usually take it because there is no edge, no advantage to me even if I'm reasonably sure we can get stacks in if I hit my set.

However, in this scenario it isn't just the 7.5:1 odds -- the call here is more because if BB is 3betting with AQ+ or QQ/KK and the 'wrong' flop comes, he may be checking to us because he is incredibly passive. We gain our edge in this scenario because we then have fold equity.

Mind you, I wouldn't much like folding at the first sign of aggression against most villains in a 3bet pot like this, but remember that we are dealing with a super passive villain here. With the range we assign this particular villain, we can be pretty sure he has what he's representing when he's betting.
 
bgomez89

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if thats the range you give him why aren't we folding?

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 57.255% 56.11% 01.14% 294018108 5977434.00 { JJ+, AQs+, AQo+ }
Hand 1: 42.745% 41.60% 01.14% 217992048 5977434.00 { JJ }

Also, most tight players like this don't 3bet AQ imo so his range is even stronger. So it pretty much just looks like youre hoping he 3bets AK and c/fs any flop that he doesnt hit. I dont think he folds his over pairs to be honest and I think any scare card for him would be a scare card for you too
 
mrmonkey

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Any scare card for him is a card we can use to make villain fold. It's not a scare card to us because we know we are actually already likely beat. At that point we could be holding 27o and it wouldn't matter... the goal is to know what villain holds and since villain is tight/passive it's a lot easier to read based on his actions.

Basically, in any other position other than blinds I think this is a clear fold vs. this villain. However, since it is a blind situation there may be some argument for a call if we think villain is opening his 3-bet range slightly and if we think we can get villain to fold his monsters on scary boards. I think villain does in fact fold QQ/KK to a board with an ace and strong betting as long as our image is tightish and not overly aggressive, and definitely will c/f AK OOP if he misses.
 
KardKlub

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With no history with him I'm folding 10s here so I'm folding jacks too as I class them the same and it helps make the decision easier. Plus he doesn't know what you folded so it doesn't matter
 
c9h13no3

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Pretty easy fold. Just don't give nits action.
 
Stu_Ungar

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Normally I would think 2.6% 3bet from a 6% PFR villain has JJ beat, but since this is a button vs BB situation I'm not entirely sure.

Its true that peoples 3bet range often widen when against a BTN raise / open however if his overall 3bet is under 3% there is just no way his 3bet against BTN range can be wide. (I wouldnt even waste the time checking his 3bet by position stats)
 
mrmonkey

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So for 2.6% (total) 3bet, we assign a range of QQ+ and AK? Or is it even narrower like KK+?

Also, I'm assuming the 2.6% is total 3bet, and not just pf 3bet. Or does it not even matter?
 
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