$10 NLHE Full Ring: JJ in MP2 overpair to the board

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orangepeeleo

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$10 NL HE Full Ring: JJ in MP2 overpair to the board

Stats on the villain are over 282 hands

poker stars, $0.05/$0.10 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 8 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

SB: $8.85 (88.5 bb)
BB: $2 (20 bb)
UTG+1: $6.65 (66.5 bb)
MP1: $13 (130 bb)
Hero (MP2): $10.85 (108.5 bb)
MP3: $2.20 (22 bb)
CO: $10.70 (107 bb)
BTN: $2.25 (22.5 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is MP2 with J
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J
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2 folds, Hero raises to $0.40, MP3 folds, CO calls $0.40, 3 folds

Flop: ($0.95) 3
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T
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9
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(2 players)
Hero bets $0.80, CO calls $0.80

Turn: ($2.55) 3
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(2 players)
Hero bets $2.10, CO calls $2.10

River: ($6.75) 5
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(2 players)

This is going to be the first of a few hands i post here today that are kinda similar in nature, i seem to be having a lot of trouble playing overpairs at 10nl so just need a little help concerning how my line's look and how somebody would play the same hand.

Is firing 2 barrels here ok?? It's not a very drawy board so should i have maybe checked the flop or turn to keep the pot a bit smaller?? Now what do i do on the river?? Try and check it down or check/call a small river bet??

Edit: Villain stats are at 28/9/0, don't know why they didnt display as usual???
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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Well basically you're only afraid of 3x, an overfull, or QQ+, all of which are pretty unlikely. Much less likely than top pair or 88 that can't let go or whatever.

I'm value betting this almost all the time, but there's a case for check-calling if we don't think he'll call another bet with Tx/9x and will bluff busted draws.
 
Steveg1976

Steveg1976

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You can probably bet $2.00 here and still expect to be called by hands you beat if he shoves with an AF of 0 I think you have to fold.
 
GunslingerZ

GunslingerZ

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Checking the turn for pot control has its pros and cons. The board is fairly dry, and you might get value on the river from a weaker hand by checking. However, your jacks are more vulnerable to an overcard falling on the river.

As played, do you have a WTSD stat? If this is >30%, it would indicate villain is pretty stationy, and calling the flop/turn with more holdings. With an aggression factor that low, his range of hands that will call a river bet is much wider than his range that will bet if you check to him, so I think betting for value is good here. Similarly, if he raises you, you're beat and you can chuck it.
 
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