$10 NLHE Full Ring: JJ facing pot bet on the river with A on the board

$10 NL HE Full Ring: JJ facing pot bet on the river with A on the board

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 15/13/5

Got 193 hands on the villain.

poker stars, $0.05/$0.10 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

UTG: $10 (100 bb)
Hero (UTG+1): $10.40 (104 bb)
MP1: $10 (100 bb)
MP2: $2.95 (29.5 bb)
MP3: $10.30 (103 bb)
CO: $10.65 (106.5 bb)
BTN: $10.05 (100.5 bb)
SB: $19.40 (194 bb)
BB: $9.30 (93 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is UTG+1 with J J
UTG folds, Hero raises to $0.40, 2 folds, MP3 calls $0.40, 4 folds

Flop: ($0.95) 2 2 5 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.70, MP3 calls $0.70

Turn: ($2.35) A (2 players)
Hero checks, MP3 checks

River: ($2.35) 9 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP3 bets $2.30

My plan here on the river was to check it and call a small bet, his AF is at 5 so i didnt want to face a check-raise but that also points to calling on the end b/c he's aggresive and could be betting a lot of hands here, not necessarily an ace, would anybody have taken a different line?? My check on the turn and river look weak i guess so this would have encouraged an aggro player to bet out, I'm now leaning more towards calling on the end, but could this be the case where someone is betting big to make me think he's bluffing and he actually has the goods?? My stats were 16/12/2 if that helps.

check, check does beg the villian to take the pot away and it is possible he floated you on the paired flop and hit a back door flush, I think it is worth a call. Just note how the hands turns out whether he bluffed a scary board when checked to twice or value towned your there on the river.

K so looking at villains stats he looks like a decent TAG. Honestly I think this is an Ace that floated the paired board alot of the time or it is a bluff. (Also random back door flush possibility) I think most good players check back the turn when they hit the ace to induce a call on the river from exactly the hand you have.

Now that I think about I think I kind of like turning our hand into a bluff here and raising river, as most TAG villains fold their ace in this spot to a river C/R.

I'm with steve on this one.

According to poker stove it is exactly 50:50

Its worth a call just for infomation, and the price is cheap.. plus its still a coin flip, so its infomation that might also win you a bet.

With a raise you may simply be putting more money into a pot you have already lost

Thanks guys, I never did call the river bet but for that price i agree, should have called if only to get some information on how he played it, what looks to be a 15/13 TAG reg is somebody it's going to be helpful getting information on.