$10 NLHE Full Ring: Can I value bet river?

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siwanat99

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pokerstars, Hold'em No Limit - $0.05/$0.10 - 7 players

(UTG): $10.18 (102 bb) Vpip : 13 PFR : 10 AF : 2
(MP): $11.35 (114 bb)
(MP+1): $10.82 (108 bb)
CO): $8.71 (87 bb)
(BU): $10.71 (107 bb)
Hero (SB): $10.00 (100 bb)\
(BB): $12.20 (122 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.15) Hero is SB with J♥ J♠
(UTG) raises to $0.30, 4 players fold, Hero (SB) calls $0.25, 1 fold

Flop: ($0.70) T♣ J♣ 3♠ (2 players)
Hero (SB) checks, (UTG) bets $0.45, Hero (SB) raises to $1.30, (UTG) calls $0.85

Turn: ($3.30) K♠ (2 players)
Hero (SB) bets $1.80, (UTG) calls $1.80

River: ($6.90) T♠ (2 players)
Hero (SB) value bet?

I'm not sure should I 3Bet preflop his vpip EP is only 8 WTSD 19
 
Alucard

Alucard

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why can't you value bet river?
assuming the sample is small, I'm still 3betting pre & getting it in post flop.
I guess it's fine to flat vs someone like him opening UTG, I'm not exactly sure of it. Because then, what are you 3betting him with? AA & KK only? The other problem is it's hard to make profitable flats from SB (HU mainly) which is why you should 3bet most of the time.

As played, check raising larger to make it easy to GII on riv.
As played still jamming riv
 
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fundiver199

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I think, its fine to just call pre with JJ, when a nit open from early position. And yeah I would absolutely bet the river. You only lose to KK and TT, which is only 4 combos, and even a nit can have other hands that just those two, which are the ultra nuts.
 
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fundiver199

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You have a pot sized bet left, which is honestly a bit awkward, since jamming might get him to fold most worse hands, while not jamming create such a gross spot, if he raise. So I would probably have raised larger on the flop to avoid that situation.
 
Aballinamion

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PokerStars, Hold'em No Limit - $0.05/$0.10 - 7 players

(UTG): $10.18 (102 bb) Vpip : 13 PFR : 10 AF : 2
(MP): $11.35 (114 bb)
(MP+1): $10.82 (108 bb)
CO): $8.71 (87 bb)
(BU): $10.71 (107 bb)
Hero (SB): $10.00 (100 bb)\
(BB): $12.20 (122 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.15) Hero is SB with J♥ J♠
(UTG) raises to $0.30, 4 players fold, Hero (SB) calls $0.25, 1 fold

Flop: ($0.70) T♣ J♣ 3♠ (2 players)
Hero (SB) checks, (UTG) bets $0.45, Hero (SB) raises to $1.30, (UTG) calls $0.85

Turn: ($3.30) K♠ (2 players)
Hero (SB) bets $1.80, (UTG) calls $1.80

River: ($6.90) T♠ (2 players)
Hero (SB) value bet?

I'm not sure should I 3Bet preflop his vpip EP is only 8 WTSD 19

Hi there siwanat99, thank you very much for posting your hand.

Preflop:

Jesus, it is very hard indeed to have pocket J's versus a NIT from UTG out of position.
Pocket Jacks are too good to fold here but it is not so good to 3-bet out of position versus a NIT from the UTG, I think that overall your calling frequency should be higher than 3-bet in a situation like this. (Although it sucks)
We want to pick up better spots where we can utilize our aggression on our side. So we call here and keep the pot small for we are going to missed the flop almost 60% of times and if we start to 3-bet in a reasonable frequency from the SB vs NIT UTG we are going to suffer a lot of 4-bets for value and put ourselves into very tricky spots: where we either fold our strong value hand or we jam and pray for the gods.

The Flop:

Here I guess that both donking or check-raising are fine lines. JJ is way too strong and requires a bit of protection here versus the flush draws of clubs, KQ, AK, AQ, etc, those hands in great volume on UTG's opening range.
Calling here is not so good because many turns are going to end action for both players: if it comes another club on the turn, it might scary the hell the UTG and he might give up on investing when it has QQ, KK, AA, even TT. The same goes for Hero/SB, a club turn or another overcard such as Qx, Kx or Ax are not good at all for SB's range, so it is better to extract the maximum value now and becomes more easy to put UTG/Villain all-in on many turns and rivers, given that SPR would be lower and it would be hard for UTG to fold some QQ, KK, AA and TT, if it has it.
Your check-raise is very good sized and UTG calls! When this Nitty guy calls you here, it knows that you either are check-raising two pair with JT or TT or JJ or 33. The bluffs that coud be raising here are the flush draws of clubs.
I believe UTG can call you here with QQ, KK, AA, TT could be shoving, 33 UTG will not have in a high frequency here, KQs, AQs, AKs are hands that can continue paying this check-raise so the Value Range and the bluffing range of UTG in a situation like this should be very, very strong.

The Turn:

This is not the best card in the universe for SB's range however it is not the worse. It completes a Set for KK (UTG could've called check-raise flop with KK as mentioned before) and AQ goes for a straight and the spades opens another flush draw, lol.
Given the connectivity of the turn, I would not go for another bet here, under the risk of turning my Set into a bluff, or only get called by better hands: UTG still has TT, KK and AQ on its range, and have combo draws for clubs or spades, who knows?
There are several turns that we could go for a bet for value but this Ks completes too much Villain's range. People will say "there are only a couple of combos of AQ and KK so bet, bet, bet, this is the micros, etc". We could be value betting any 2x, 3x, 4x, 5x, 6x, 7x, even 9x here, without a clubs of course, but even Tx is not so good for us given that UTG still holds some TT on its range.
I rather bet on this turn with my bluffs such as SD+FD or clubs or spades, is much better with a potential bluff than with a strong value hand such as a Set of Jacks.
And when I bet here on the turn, I love polarizing my range a lot, letting the story very clear for the opponent: either I am bluffing or I am with "the nuts". But my bluffs are not simple air bluffs, are bluffs with a lot of equity potential for many rivers.
Anyways, when I bet this turn I like to polarize my range and I would go for 70% pot or even 120% pot depending on Villain: by betting so little you are simply giving too many odds for whatever UTG has on its range to continue paying and see a cheap river.
When you bet here, you are almost commiting yourself to all the rivers, no matter if they are good or bad for you, it becomes almost impossible to fold.
UTG could be calling you here on the turn with TT, KK, AQ and maybe the flush draws of spades and the flush draws of clubs. Even a bigger maybe some SD+FD with Qx or Ax, but given how passive this player is I wouldn't expect many of these.

The River completes a Full-House?

Thank God poker is still alive and players have good sense and reason to wonder if they should be value betting their Full Houses on a spot like this: many players are not even thinking one second here: they are going all in on the River, in spite that UTG had called check-raise flop and c-bet turn! They think: "Oh, I have A Full House, now they are going to see what I can do ALL-IN on their faces!".
It doesn't matter if we have a Full House if we are never going to get paid by straights or flushes, or even worse, right?
Great question friend, this is how we use to think poker, not simply betting because we have strong hands on our range and not wondering which hands could be calling us flop/turn/
When it comes another Ts on the River we know that UTG called flop/turn with TT and can have a Quads here, no problem. We also know that UTG can have KK on its range with a better Full House.
We know that UTG has Straights and Flushes here too, what we don't know if UTG is going all in here, or calling all in here with straights and flushes, this is why Hero, siwanat99, asked for us if she/he should be value-betting this river. Great question, congratulations!
If we bet this River it would be a very easy fold for AK, AA, QQ, and depending on the sizing easy calls for straights and flushes. However, it sucks when we value bet this river and Villains shoves all-in upon our heads: we are virtually forced to call here.
I don't know man, I would go for checking turn, so the pot doesn't grow too much and I would go for checking river as well expecting Villain to bluff so AA, QQ, AK, KJ? straights and flushes. If UTG doesn't bluff what can we do?
If for some reason this Villain goes all in river when I do not c-bet turn easy fold for my Full House: SB's line is way too strong when you check-raise flop and c-bet 1/2 pot turn, so we picture a even stronger range for UTG too.
We must also consider that there are some nitties that would never fold AA, QQ, AK or any straight or flush here. If this is the kindda of passive nitty you are playing with jam this river and collect the money 80% of times or more.
If this Nitty is a tricky one, I don't see any reason to put ourselves on hard spots.

Regards;

Carlos 'Aballinamion' Barbosa
 
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siwanat99

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when he called check-raise on the flop I put him on AA KK QQ TT AcKc AcQc I don't think he called check-raise with only gutshot AK AQ
when I bet on the turn I thought he would call with AcKc AA QQ (I played like this when I have FD he could call with overpair and think I have FD or OPES)
I checked this river I don't know which hands will call me
Let's say he has AK AQ AA can I thin value or it's good that we get 30BB with Set vs TPTK or Overpair


He had AA
 
Aballinamion

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when he called check-raise on the flop I put him on AA KK QQ TT AcKc AcQc I don't think he called check-raise with only gutshot AK AQ
when I bet on the turn I thought he would call with AcKc AA QQ (I played like this when I have FD he could call with overpair and think I have FD or OPES)
I checked this river I don't know which hands will call me
Let's say he has AK AQ AA can I thin value or it's good that we get 30BB with Set vs TPTK or Overpair


He had AA

Thank you for your attention. Now you have to put a note on this Villain like this "sticky to pocket aces and similars".
There are many regulars at the micros who would never fold AA, KK, QQ even JJ and AK, so you have to put a note on these "sticky" players, because if they don't fold this simple hands, they are never folding trips, sets, two pair, and absolutely never folding straights and flushes.
Knowing the results becomes the life easier, but when we don't really know what Villain has we use logic to induce the best movement.

Regards;

Carlos 'Aballinamion' Barbosa
 
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fundiver199

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The issue here is, you are not going to check-fold. You are just not. So by checking you allow him to get to a cheap showdown with a hand like AA, while you still lose the same against KK and more rarely TT. If you think, he will fold AA to a large bet, then go for a small bet instead. I dont think, anyone is folding AA, if you bet like 2$ or 20BB on the river. He might fold to a pot sized jam though.
 
Evan Jarvis

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PokerStars, Hold'em No Limit - $0.05/$0.10 - 7 players

(UTG): $10.18 (102 bb) Vpip : 13 PFR : 10 AF : 2
(MP): $11.35 (114 bb)
(MP+1): $10.82 (108 bb)
CO): $8.71 (87 bb)
(BU): $10.71 (107 bb)
Hero (SB): $10.00 (100 bb)\
(BB): $12.20 (122 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.15) Hero is SB with J♥ J♠
(UTG) raises to $0.30, 4 players fold, Hero (SB) calls $0.25, 1 fold

Flop: ($0.70) T♣ J♣ 3♠ (2 players)
Hero (SB) checks, (UTG) bets $0.45, Hero (SB) raises to $1.30, (UTG) calls $0.85

Turn: ($3.30) K♠ (2 players)
Hero (SB) bets $1.80, (UTG) calls $1.80

River: ($6.90) T♠ (2 players)
Hero (SB) value bet?

I'm not sure should I 3Bet preflop his vpip EP is only 8 WTSD 19

I like the flat preflop vs utg

Would probably checkraise to a larger size given how many draws are there.

You can 100% value bet the river (and if you size up on the flop you fold out most of his AQ anyway)

If he jams on you, it's likely KK or TT, but KQ will certainly call a bet, maybe 1/3 pot?

Checkraising is also an option to get value from missed draws, random Tx if he has and KQ which may go for thin value
 
Aballinamion

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In depth analysis: the meta-game

when he called check-raise on the flop I put him on AA KK QQ TT AcKc AcQc I don't think he called check-raise with only gutshot AK AQ
when I bet on the turn I thought he would call with AcKc AA QQ (I played like this when I have FD he could call with overpair and think I have FD or OPES)
I checked this river I don't know which hands will call me
Let's say he has AK AQ AA can I thin value or it's good that we get 30BB with Set vs TPTK or Overpair


He had AA

I told you that a possible line against this Villain could be checking turn and checking river, which seems preposterous for many regulars here at the forum.
Besides, SB almost always has a very obvious and capped range, so, when SB cold calls versus UTG, I am always expecting strong hands, except AA, KK and AK, the rest, even many regulars are calling. I am calling myself as I described in the first post.
Very interesting here to put myself, or if you try to put youself into UTG's shoes, with AA, in situatio where SB called capped preflop and check-raised flop: of course it has sets, two pair and good equity bluffs.
When SB value bet this river, either is overplaying some TPTK, Two Pair or Set, because straights would be checking this a ton. So this is why the check-line on the turn doesn't seem so ludicrous, because it seems that we got "scared of the straight" and we are just leaving our hand, giving up the pot, the check induces UTG with AA to think something like: "okay, SB could be checking some straights but it is not very likely so I'll try a stab at the pot".
Many players simply do not have the discipline and the patience! Of course you extract more with your line, but versus a harder player you will not extract that much! Ever!
When we from the SB check-turn and check-river, UTG will be almost 100% of times its pocket aces, because it believes that we gave up our hand.
Anyways, your line worked just fine and your question was very good, because as I said before, 99% of players are not even asking if they should be value betting here, they are jamming, and I am also jamming a lot of times a hand like this at the micros.
However I love the meta-game way of thinking and it will helps us a lot as we are going up the stairs.

Regards;

Carlos 'Aballinamion' Barbosa
 
Alucard

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Checking the river is pretty bad vs a nit. He'll xb a lot of AA,KJ,AK & maybe perhaps even AQ since the board paired.
Also I don't like thin value betting here. I don't see any balance in that. Just a heavily exploitative line. Which is fine, but the nits range is heavily capped so if I'm not jamming then I'm at least betting 60%+

Just stop making assumptions of what he'll do & just bet bet bet & get value with your good hands.
I used to try & trap like this but it rarely work & most hands that'd bet would've called a bet as well.
And I've started making more money by just getting aggressive & just value betting the shit out of your good hands.
Concern about something like TT,KK is highley irrevalant. Because we are getting the money in anyway. So stop thinking about coolers & just extract the max value.
 
Aballinamion

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Checking the river is pretty bad vs a nit. He'll xb a lot of AA,KJ,AK & maybe perhaps even AQ since the board paired.
Also I don't like thin value betting here. I don't see any balance in that. Just a heavily exploitative line. Which is fine, but the nits range is heavily capped so if I'm not jamming then I'm at least betting 60%+

Just stop making assumptions of what he'll do & just bet bet bet & get value with your good hands.
I used to try & trap like this but it rarely work & most hands that'd bet would've called a bet as well.
And I've started making more money by just getting aggressive & just value betting the shit out of your good hands.
Concern about something like TT,KK is highley irrevalant. Because we are getting the money in anyway. So stop thinking about coolers & just extract the max value.

I respect that. Although we are not trying to make assumptions, but simply trying to enter into the mind of our opponent to force it to make more mistakes than usual.
I like this ideia of John Anhalt of if you don't know what to do, simply bet, because it is better to make an err on the side of aggressiveness than for the side of passiveness. (quoting Polished Poker Vol 1, which I know you are aware of).
However, I really like to choose very well the spots where I can really use my aggressive side, because I consider myself a Tight player: this means that if I begin to bet, bet, bet in every spot that I believe that I am "okay", I will not be a Tight anymore but an aggro donkey and that I cannot accept.
Being Tight, IMO, is know when to be passive and when to be aggressive and both are equally profitable. Balancing passive/aggressive gaming is much more profitable than simply go by check-calling too much or the contrary, check-raising too much.
Anyways, anyone has its own style of playing and if your styles is profitable for you, good enough. My style is profitable for me, so no reason or point on debating what we should do or what we shouldn't do, since is the group of gathered information of many posters here on the forum that will form the particular style of the player who is questioning.
Thank you very much for you patience, candor and attention to this post, it is very important for me and for all of us here.

Regards;

Carlos 'Aballinamion' Barbosa
 
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IMO it's villan dependant if you 3 bet pre I'm mostly 3 betting here OOP. If a nit has opened UTG his range is usually stronger. I would of check raised larger on the flop.As played you can absolutely go for value on the river your beat by 3 combos of KK and one combo of TT. You might be thinking I'm not going to get called by worse but theres only 4 combos that beat you so most of his hands are going to be worse. Personally I like a large bet on the river here he is unlikely to spaz out with AA and would more than likely check back
 
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The other problem is it's hard to make profitable flats from SB (HU mainly) which is why you should 3bet most of the time.


Can someone expand on the why of this? Is it bc of being oop?
 
Aballinamion

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PokerStars, Hold'em No Limit - $0.05/$0.10 - 7 players

(UTG): $10.18 (102 bb) Vpip : 13 PFR : 10 AF : 2
(MP): $11.35 (114 bb)
(MP+1): $10.82 (108 bb)
CO): $8.71 (87 bb)
(BU): $10.71 (107 bb)
Hero (SB): $10.00 (100 bb)\
(BB): $12.20 (122 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.15) Hero is SB with J♥ J♠
(UTG) raises to $0.30, 4 players fold, Hero (SB) calls $0.25, 1 fold

Flop: ($0.70) T♣ J♣ 3♠ (2 players)
Hero (SB) checks, (UTG) bets $0.45, Hero (SB) raises to $1.30, (UTG) calls $0.85

Turn: ($3.30) K♠ (2 players)
Hero (SB) bets $1.80, (UTG) calls $1.80

River: ($6.90) T♠ (2 players)
Hero (SB) value bet?

I'm not sure should I 3Bet preflop his vpip EP is only 8 WTSD 19

Hello siwanat99, thank you very much for posting it.

The Preflop

Well, having a VPIP of 8, I picture its PFR as 6, 5, something like this. Induces me to assume that its 3-bet range is very narrow, so no point in 3-betting here because if this NIT 4-bets we must fold TT-QQ 100% of times.
WTSD is irrelevant, unless you have played at least 10.000 hands with Villain.

The River

IMO, you should be value betting here, because UTG will have only 3 combos of KK and 1 combo of TT that are beating us, but infinite more combos that could be paying: it can pay with straights, flushes, Two Pairs, you name it.

Regards;

Carlos 'Aballinamion' Barbosa
 
Aballinamion

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Hi there siwanat99, thank you very much for posting your hand.

Preflop:

Jesus, it is very hard indeed to have pocket J's versus a NIT from UTG out of position.
Pocket Jacks are too good to fold here but it is not so good to 3-bet out of position versus a NIT from the UTG, I think that overall your calling frequency should be higher than 3-bet in a situation like this. (Although it sucks)
We want to pick up better spots where we can utilize our aggression on our side. So we call here and keep the pot small for we are going to missed the flop almost 60% of times and if we start to 3-bet in a reasonable frequency from the SB vs NIT UTG we are going to suffer a lot of 4-bets for value and put ourselves into very tricky spots: where we either fold our strong value hand or we jam and pray for the gods.

The Flop:

Here I guess that both donking or check-raising are fine lines. JJ is way too strong and requires a bit of protection here versus the flush draws of clubs, KQ, AK, AQ, etc, those hands in great volume on UTG's opening range.
Calling here is not so good because many turns are going to end action for both players: if it comes another club on the turn, it might scary the hell the UTG and he might give up on investing when it has QQ, KK, AA, even TT. The same goes for Hero/SB, a club turn or another overcard such as Qx, Kx or Ax are not good at all for SB's range, so it is better to extract the maximum value now and becomes more easy to put UTG/Villain all-in on many turns and rivers, given that SPR would be lower and it would be hard for UTG to fold some QQ, KK, AA and TT, if it has it.
Your check-raise is very good sized and UTG calls! When this Nitty guy calls you here, it knows that you either are check-raising two pair with JT or TT or JJ or 33. The bluffs that coud be raising here are the flush draws of clubs.
I believe UTG can call you here with QQ, KK, AA, TT could be shoving, 33 UTG will not have in a high frequency here, KQs, AQs, AKs are hands that can continue paying this check-raise so the Value Range and the Bluffing range of UTG in a situation like this should be very, very strong.

The Turn:

This is not the best card in the universe for SB's range however it is not the worse. It completes a Set for KK (UTG could've called check-raise flop with KK as mentioned before) and AQ goes for a straight and the spades opens another flush draw, lol.
Given the connectivity of the turn, I would not go for another bet here, under the risk of turning my Set into a bluff, or only get called by better hands: UTG still has TT, KK and AQ on its range, and have combo draws for clubs or spades, who knows?
There are several turns that we could go for a bet for value but this Ks completes too much Villain's range. People will say "there are only a couple of combos of AQ and KK so bet, bet, bet, this is the micros, etc". We could be value betting any 2x, 3x, 4x, 5x, 6x, 7x, even 9x here, without a clubs of course, but even Tx is not so good for us given that UTG still holds some TT on its range.
I rather bet on this turn with my bluffs such as SD+FD or clubs or spades, is much better with a potential bluff than with a strong value hand such as a Set of Jacks.
And when I bet here on the turn, I love polarizing my range a lot, letting the story very clear for the opponent: either I am bluffing or I am with "the nuts". But my bluffs are not simple air bluffs, are bluffs with a lot of equity potential for many rivers.
Anyways, when I bet this turn I like to polarize my range and I would go for 70% pot or even 120% pot depending on Villain: by betting so little you are simply giving too many odds for whatever UTG has on its range to continue paying and see a cheap river.
When you bet here, you are almost commiting yourself to all the rivers, no matter if they are good or bad for you, it becomes almost impossible to fold.
UTG could be calling you here on the turn with TT, KK, AQ and maybe the flush draws of spades and the flush draws of clubs. Even a bigger maybe some SD+FD with Qx or Ax, but given how passive this player is I wouldn't expect many of these.

The River completes a Full-House?

Thank God poker is still alive and players have good sense and reason to wonder if they should be value betting their Full Houses on a spot like this: many players are not even thinking one second here: they are going all in on the River, in spite that UTG had called check-raise flop and c-bet turn! They think: "Oh, I have A Full House, now they are going to see what I can do ALL-IN on their faces!".
It doesn't matter if we have a Full House if we are never going to get paid by straights or flushes, or even worse, right?
Great question friend, this is how we use to think poker, not simply betting because we have strong hands on our range and not wondering which hands could be calling us flop/turn/
When it comes another Ts on the River we know that UTG called flop/turn with TT and can have a Quads here, no problem. We also know that UTG can have KK on its range with a better Full House.
We know that UTG has Straights and Flushes here too, what we don't know if UTG is going all in here, or calling all in here with straights and flushes, this is why Hero, siwanat99, asked for us if she/he should be value-betting this river. Great question, congratulations!
If we bet this River it would be a very easy fold for AK, AA, QQ, and depending on the sizing easy calls for straights and flushes. However, it sucks when we value bet this river and Villains shoves all-in upon our heads: we are virtually forced to call here.
I don't know man, I would go for checking turn, so the pot doesn't grow too much and I would go for checking river as well expecting Villain to bluff so AA, QQ, AK, KJ? straights and flushes. If UTG doesn't bluff what can we do?
If for some reason this Villain goes all in river when I do not c-bet turn easy fold for my Full House: SB's line is way too strong when you check-raise flop and c-bet 1/2 pot turn, so we picture a even stronger range for UTG too.
We must also consider that there are some nitties that would never fold AA, QQ, AK or any straight or flush here. If this is the kindda of passive nitty you are playing with jam this river and collect the money 80% of times or more.
If this Nitty is a tricky one, I don't see any reason to put ourselves on hard spots.

Regards;

Carlos 'Aballinamion' Barbosa

Well, as you can see I am also learning poker and I changed my mind from the first time I posted. OTR it is crystal clear that UTG will have a ton of dominated hands.

Regards;

Carlos 'Aballinamion' Barbosa
 
Q

quant1986

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K on the turn is probably the worst card for your check-raise range and I think you should check the turn and villain would have more AQ combos with backdoor flush draws and top set .
Given V didn't raise on the turn, I think his turn calling range is something like KcQc,AcQc, AcKc, TT and some AA combos, so I would bet-fold river like 33%.
 
Vilgeoforc

Vilgeoforc

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Need to set. A check-raise with such a player may not work. It is necessary to put, but to put a little. Approximately 1/3 or 1/2 of the pot to get from straights, flushes, possibly with AK.
 
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