$10 NLHE Full Ring: How to play this overpair?

UTG+1: $11.86 - VPIP: 53, PFR: 14, 3B: 0, AF: 1.2, hands: 64
Hero (MP1): $10.68 - VPIP: 18, PFR: 16, 3B: 5.1, AF: 4.4, Hands: 127465
MP2: $11.72 - VPIP: 32, PFR: 32, 3B: 0, AF: 0.0, Hands: 41
CO: $9.00 - VPIP: 35, PFR: 0, 3B: 0, AF: 5.7, Hands: 48
BTN: $10.00 - VPIP: 27, PFR: 16, 3B: 8, AF: 1.0, Hands: 79
SB: $3.45 - VPIP: 13, PFR: 13, 3B: 0, AF: 0.0, Hands: 63
BB: $10.00 - VPIP: 13, PFR: 9, 3B: 3, AF: 3.2, Hands: 520
UTG: $4.25 - VPIP: 9, PFR: 9, 3B: 0, AF: 0.0, Hands: 70

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is MP1 with
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.10, Hero raises to $0.40, 1 fold, CO calls $0.40, 4 folds

Flop: ($1.05) (2 players)
Hero bets $0.70, CO raises to $1.40, Hero calls $0.70

Turn: ($3.85) (2 players)
Hero bets $2.50, CO calls $2.50

River: ($8.85) (2 players)
Hero bets $2.90, CO raises to $4.70, Hero calls $1.80

I put him on KT, AT,QT on the flop, I think villain is fishy. What do you guys think about this play?

I think you should be aiming to get his whole stack in. There is zero reason to bet small on the turn or the river here. Just bet $3.25 or so on the turn and stick the rest in on the river.

Dont actually mind the turn bet sizing because it sets us up nicely for a river jam but for some reason we bet 1/4 the pot instead of just shoving river.
Any particular reason why we are leading the turn after being raised on the flop? Kinda like a c/rai there because villain has high AF(tiny sample,but still seems aggro) and never folds to a jam after betting turn.
Checking turn would be very villain dependent though.

I'm leaning more toward S93, but we don't have a lot of info yet, though with those stats so far, he might not last long anyways.

And yeah, why the tiny river lead? Is this to induce him to shove, or did you expect him more likely to call 1/4 pot?

Yes guys,I know, I'm not too happy about that river bet. I should've shoved. I wanted to see if I took the right decisions. And if you are interested the fish showed me TT and beat me with a full. I smelled something from the flop, I think that's why I played so weird. Anyway is this a bad beat or not?

I'm fairly sure this is one of those fish who will call most anything preflop and fold to a ton of flop bets.

Any min raise at these stakes in a postflop situation is close to the nuts. I'm always folding unless he is an aggrotard.

FWIW with the tiny sample size AF doesn't mean anything. I'm fairly sure AF doesn't calculate folds so if he sees a ton of flops and folds 95% of them then his AF won't go down when in reality he is super nitty postflop.

No. All of this guys aggression is postflop since we've never seen him raise pre. Folding to any raise he makes postflop holding an overpair is going to be wrong (even based on this sample).

Turn bet makes no sense to me at all.

ScottishMatt said:

FWIW with the tiny sample size AF doesn't mean anything. I'm fairly sure AF doesn't calculate folds so if he sees a ton of flops and folds 95% of them then his AF won't go down when in reality he is super nitty postflop.

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AF is bets and raises divided by calls, so yes, no folds. This appears to be a fit or fold ish player post (and I have no problem using 48 hands to make that inference) which is why I can't understand the bet ott.

I dunno WV. I play against these guys just about every session. I don't see him min-raising anything that JJ beats. Sure if he is min-raising every second hand then GII for sure, I highly doubt that he is actually doing that. If a passive player wants to get all his money in and I'm outta there.

Flop call doesn't make much sense. He has made it clear he has a hand that he wants to go all in with, if you feel that JJ beats enough of that range then shove over him OTF. Calling only makes you susceptible to overcards coming.


Flop seems like an all in or fold, for me I fold here most of the time.

ScottishMatt said:

I dunno WV. I play against these guys just about every session. I don't see him min-raising anything that JJ beats. Sure if he is min-raising every second hand then GII for sure, I highly doubt that he is actually doing that. If a passive player wants to get all his money in and I'm outta there.

Flop call doesn't make much sense. He has made it clear he has a hand that he wants to go all in with, if you feel that JJ beats enough of that range then shove over him OTF. Calling only makes you susceptible to overcards coming.


Flop seems like an all in or fold, for me I fold here most of the time.

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A lot of 10x hands and smaller than JJ pairs would play this way at the micros. Passive???? Only pre flop AF is higher than our hero. Its bet bet shove if he has AA-QQ A3 23 34 or caught 66 77 so be it, I believe he has a lot worse hands to make it +ev

actually i think waiting until the river is a mistake given this hand and here is why: if you expect villain to be raising with TP and spewing out like he is, then why would he fold if you reraised him on the flop or turn? He wouldn't. If he is a fishier player (which I'm assuming based on small sample) and he jizzes himself over top pair, then why wait till the river and risk having other scare cards hurt your action? (for example if villain has KT,JT,QT,or AT and the turn is a card higher than a T that he doesnt have, it might make him slow down a bit and decreases the value you get from the hand.) So in conclusion based on him being a fish I would've made a large 4bet on the flop and got it in on the turn.