$10 NLHE Full Ring: Generic issue - premium pair OOP vs obvious draw

LD1977

LD1977

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Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (8 handed) - Full Tilt Converter Tool from http://www.flopturnriver.com

BB ($16.32)
Hero (UTG) ($12.68)
UTG+1 ($10)
MP1 ($10)
MP2 ($5.29)
CO ($13.79)
Button ($11.12)
SB ($16.54)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q
heart.gif
, Q
club.gif

Hero raises to $0.40, 3 folds, CO calls $0.40, 3 folds

Flop: ($0.95) J
spade.gif
, 10
spade.gif
, 6
heart.gif
(2 players)
Hero bets $0.80, CO calls $0.80

Turn: ($2.55) J
club.gif
(2 players)
Hero bets $1.40, CO calls $1.40

River: ($5.35) 9
spade.gif
(2 players)
Hero bets $2.50, CO raises to $11.19 (All-In), Hero folds

Total pot: $10.35 | Rake: $0.51

Results below:
CO didn't show
Outcome: CO won $9.84

OK so this guy is a weekend fish, 58/0, AF 1, only 20 or so hands.

Is there any way I am not getting raped here mathematically, short of shoving flop or blank turn? He always has odds if he is willing to bluff all my river checks/weak blockers (fish love blocking bets and recognize them well).

Fish like this one love betting missed draws on the river, especially if he chased a straight of some kind (T9, random gutshots) and whiffed it, so check/calling might be best but I am getting an allergy when thinking about it since I am trying to get rid of that crap.

Anyway, he is basically in position to rape me with this line while expanding zero effort, so obviously there is something wrong here and certain people told me that overbetting vs known draws is "losing value" (this line is SO much better obviously, I am just too stupid to see it).

Opinions?
 
Aces2w1n

Aces2w1n

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Soon as that board paired your in danger... Though it cancels out their low bs 2 pair hands because fish love showing up with 10 6 :)

Well due to all the extreme danger out there J's and the straights... You should always be folding the river... don't marry your hand and yes it's frustrating this happened but if he plays badly all the time it's only a matter of time before you win it back.
 
IPlay

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Should of bet a little over pot on turn to push him off. Who knows though, fish love draws.
 
Mr Sandbag

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Should of bet a little over pot on turn to push him off. Who knows though, fish love draws.

Not a fan of that. You want villains to chase draws when they have a bad price. They'll hit sometimes, but not enough to make it unprofitable for us. You also don't wanna overbet the pot because you risk pushing out worse hands that might otherwise pay us off.

Anyway, I like your betting line for the most part, and folding was best. I don't see how villain could shove with anything less than trip Jacks. He would have to be just as worried about the Jack as you are if he doesn't have one. Overpairs would have 3-bet pre in most cases.

The only thing I might change is betting a bit more on the river so as to not seem "scared." I doubt the fish picked up on it, but some better players might.

Good fold.
 
John A

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You played it fine, minus you need to bet more on the turn.
 
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matiusaa

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I think your fold is correct, but if youwere sure that he was chasing the draw why did you bet the river when the spade came??? On the river I would play check-call, if his bet is reasonable
 
Mr Sandbag

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I think your fold is correct, but if youwere sure that he was chasing the draw why did you bet the river when the spade came??? On the river I would play check-call, if his bet is reasonable

Actually, I'm gonna take back what I said about the river and go with this. You can either bet 3/4 of the pot and fold to a raise, or you can check and call a similarly sized bet and at least showdown.

I'd like to hear other opinions on this though. It's a spot that comes up rather frequently.
 
LD1977

LD1977

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John - Even with bigger turn bet he still has odds to chase a draw (FD or OESD). That is my problem... whatever I do he is in perfect position. Turns out I can't play this flop theoretically profitably.

Mr Sandbag - Point of bet/fold is to get calls from his 2 pair hands, since he will raise only hands that beat me (possibly not trips). If I check he could check back 2 pair hands (although he could bet some % of those too) and bet all hands that beat me (trips+).


I am trying to implement more bet/folding into my game since check/calling is questionable as far as extracting value goes.

The question is not if fold is correct (I am certain it is) but if it is even possible to play this hand profitably vs an unknown draw.
 
John A

John A

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John - Even with bigger turn bet he still has odds to chase a draw (FD or OESD). That is my problem... whatever I do he is in perfect position. Turns out I can't play this flop theoretically profitably.

Mr Sandbag - Point of bet/fold is to get calls from his 2 pair hands, since he will raise only hands that beat me (possibly not trips). If I check he could check back 2 pair hands (although he could bet some % of those too) and bet all hands that beat me (trips+).


I am trying to implement more bet/folding into my game since check/calling is questionable as far as extracting value goes.

The question is not if fold is correct (I am certain it is) but if it is even possible to play this hand profitably vs an unknown draw.

huh? You are not understanding something about odds and equity if you think this.

Hypothetically, let's say what you're saying is true, which it's not... do you think you're behind his range on the flop or turn, and thus your at an equity disadvantage? I'd assume you'd say no, and if that's the case, how do you win at NL? You invest the most money you can, when you have an equity advantage.
 
Mr Sandbag

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I'm not following. Are you saying that it is like he has an OESD/FD because he is in position, knows you don't have either, and is willing to bluff if either one shows up? So even if he has complete air, he's able to rep it well enough to be "drawing?"

Wouldn't this line of thinking be villain-dependent? The villain in this hand looks to be a complete fish, so the bet/fold should be good. But if you were up against a competent player, I feel like the check-call would be the way to go if you believe he has the ability to rep the draw enough to make calling profitable.
 
LD1977

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Lets say he has some kind of flush draw (which was probably the case here).

- On the flop his equity is 35% or more (I plugged various suited stuff into PokerStove), he calls 0.80 (pot is 2.55)... good for him.

- On the turn, lets say I did bet bigger (2.00), his equity is now around 20%, he calls 2.00 and the pot is 6.55... not great for him if I am psychic and if flush hits I check/fold (Which is supposed to be a weak line, right? He might have had a straight draw here easily.), BUT if I bet/fold then my half pot river bet (lets say 3.30) makes the pot 9.95 and this makes his turn call retroactively profitable.

River bet smaller than half pot is questionable since he can see weakness and can raise a lot of stuff here, and I have to fold a lot.

This is only if he has a baby FD (32s, 43s) and nothing else, if he has anything better (nut FD, FD + pair, or FD + gutshot, which is not unlikely with this board) this is even better for him. So I do have equity edge but can't improve (even a Q is arguably not a great turn card for me) and I can't make any draws unprofitable unless I overbet.

Mr Sandbag - Fish always assume you have a big pair with this line and act accordingly. It is not rocket science, they are drawing to what they think is nuts and to hell with any further thinking (this is great if in fact you have a better draw and you play it aggressively and you hit, but whatever).

Also quite a few of them are willing to take a river shot if their draw misses but another one hits and PFR finally checks, and then I have to hero call (questionable + explicitly stated on the recent workshop to be bad and I tend to agree) or fold (also questionable since there are plenty of bluffs here and I would have pot odds to justify a call).

Problem is I just don't see how this situation can be made clearly profitable with normal line such as the one I took here, and this stuff comes up super super often in 10NL, especially on weekends.
 
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Mr Sandbag

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Well it seems that you have eliminated bet/fold and check/call as profitable lines. Maybe check/fold is the best line here. It seems to be the only thing that makes it unprofitable for villain to continue drawing out. A flush or straight card is only going to hit the river ~33% of the time, so for every time you will have check/folded the river, you will have bet and won the pot twice.
 
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John A

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Lets say he has some kind of flush draw (which was probably the case here).

- On the flop his equity is 35% or more (I plugged various suited stuff into

No, it's not. That's his equity with 2 cards to come.
 
LD1977

LD1977

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Sure, but in the end I have to actually win the pot somehow, no?

The chance he hits the next card is 9/47 (actually 9/45 since I hold no blockers) = 19% but the amount is small compared to the final pot size unless I am willing to give free turn card.

If I understand you correctly, I am "earning" money since he is paying individual cards too much?

There is still the problem of what to do on the river since my river bet retroactively justifies the previous call and checking is suspect. Also I pay 10% of my winnings to the house (rake is 5% on the total pot) so any actual profit (if it exists) comes from rakeback :D this can't be right.
 
B

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bet/folding river is totally standard, any other line is probably spewy. c/f > c/c
 
John A

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Sure, but in the end I have to actually win the pot somehow, no?

The chance he hits the next card is 9/47 (actually 9/45 since I hold no blockers) = 19% but the amount is small compared to the final pot size unless I am willing to give free turn card.

If I understand you correctly, I am "earning" money since he is paying individual cards too much?

There is still the problem of what to do on the river since my river bet retroactively justifies the previous call and checking is suspect. Also I pay 10% of my winnings to the house (rake is 5% on the total pot) so any actual profit (if it exists) comes from rakeback :D this can't be right.

Like I said in my previous post, you aren't understanding odds or equity correctly at all. I'd suggest reviewing this past of your game, so you can come to a firm understanding of it. There's lots of material out there that covers this, including my ebook. Tons of free articles that you can search for on google.
 
LD1977

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I checked my math and it seems correct (see below)?

I am not talking about range vs. range here but about playing a typical situation that comes up nonstop, meaning how to barrel for value vs whatever type of hand that has 35% flop equity (usually some kind of flush draw).

We can discuss that his calling range has combo draws or overcard FDs (which have much better flop equity than 35%) and some OESDs/gutshots (which likely fold turn) and also of course sets/slowplayed AA/KK in unknown frequencies but all this is just clouding the issue. Typically I am playing most of the time vs. flush draws and this 35% scenario is giving me trouble.

Last time:

1) Flop: Pot is 0.95$, my equity is 65% and his is 35%. I bet 0.80, he calls.

2) Turn: Pot is 2.55$. I bet 2.00, he calls.

3) River: Pot is 6.55$. Flush card hits, I try for a bet/fold line with half pot bet (3.30$).
(For simplicity - he never bluffs and never calls with worse hand (1 pair), I never call river raise if draw hits.)

Now:

65% of the time I have won 2.80$ post flop (his flop and turn calls).
35% of the time I lost 5.10$.

Total line EV = 0.65 * 2.80 - 0.35 * 5.10 = 1.82 - 1.785 = 0.035$

We both profit from collecting the flop pot (0.95$), but there is obviously 5% total pot rake which eats into the profits and this is the final kicker - I just can't squeeze out anything vs this type of scenario.

There are times where the opponent walks into non-flush 2 pairs and I might walk into a set... I am really not sure what the frequencies are for these cases (yup, this is the hole in my knowledge), arguably those are the only showdowns we will see in this line unless I get stupid and call his river raises or he just calls with 2 pairs.
 
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Mr Sandbag

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He has 35% equity with two cards to come, but he doesn't know what is going to happen on the turn or if he is even going to be able to see both the turn and river. He missed his flush on the turn, which means he is going to need about 4:1 on his money to continue chasing, but you gave him a bad price with your $2 bet. If he calls your turn bet with just a flush draw, he's making a mistake. He can't chase on the flop with only ~2:1 on his money because he's supposed to fold if he misses and you price him out.
 
LD1977

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I understand the theory but the problem is that I can't be really 100% certain what a fishy station has except that if they raise river it is always 2 pairs+ (I do observe others play too :D) and before that it is either a draw or a slowplay of something.

They do often call flop with gutshots/overcards/whatever and this is profitable when they give up on the turn, but this type of hand is a constant annoyance and I don't see a good way to play it... checking turns for pot control is a disaster when I try it even though there are 1-2 winning regs who manage to profit with that line.

In practice with a FD/OESD/combo draw they always call flop and always call anything normally sized on turn and then on the river I am screwed since I can't actually be 100% certain they had exactly flush draw so I can check/fold comfortably.

I just hate every river line here.

Maybe they had 98s/Q9s (KQ has actually hit the straight) and now they have a worse pair... if I check they can bluff here profitably and often do bet river checks so it seems that bet/fold is best but the math shows it isn't really great either.

I don't have enough of my own hands with this line since I like playing good draws aggressively so I can't check how I am doing as IP caller in these situations :(
 
John A

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I don't know LD, but just seems like when I read your posts, your PM's to me etc, you act as if you know. So not sure why you are asking me. I've tried to help you, and I've said that your explanation is not correct, and why it isn't. I have no problem trying to help you, but I think if you don't understand something, it's easier if you just take it from that approach rather than trying to defend your misunderstanding. It's not just this post that I'm referencing.

So again, you are not understanding equity and expected value correctly. Your comment would be correct if you were getting it in on the flop, but that's not what's happening. I've offered some suggestions on how to understand this better. Perhaps someone else can try a different approach. There are lots of nice CC members here.
 
LD1977

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John, you are acting like I am not making an effort to explain my thinking? If I didn't want to get to the bottom of this I wouldn't bother.

I am not saying "I know", I am saying "I did the work and this is what math shows about this line in painful detail".

From villain's perspective I see it as a good implied odds (the magic word that is specifically mentioned in literature for calling with draws IP without proper pot odds) scenario. He is passive with his draw but counts on PFR either giving up when a scare card hits or giving him a river bet as an extra. That river bet is the key of the problem (hitting the turn is even better for him so lets not even go there).

There is no other explanation for the massive prevalence for this kind of line in showdowns which actually see completed draws. Not necessarily my own hands but I see it all the time while playing, on weekends pretty much every 3rd-4th hand with a FD possibility features this line... and yup flush cards hit on turns/rivers quite often when I am multitabling so there are loads of examples of how this stuff plays out. OOP players seem to get destroyed here by the fish collective (basically The Borg, mindless but effective :D).

Most regs just give up on every flush card that hits, I guess I am one of the stupid ones here since I try to make this work (which nets me losses AND I get insulted on the forum, double fun).

Since this is an OOP issue and I suck when playing OOP (as I have admitted and you have noticed the imbalances in my game due to this issue), I don't see how you think I am ignoring your advice?
 
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John A

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It just doesn't come off that way in a lot of your posts.

Any ways, like I said, no your math is not correct, and how you're thinking about the situations is not correct. If it were, no one would bet against a draw. Also, you aren't considering the money you make on your opponents busted draw attempts. If you do get to the river, you'll have X number of combos of value hands that beat you, and Y number of draw hands that missed. So in most situations it's profitable to turn your hand into a bluff catcher with a large portion of your range (even the bottom of it) because your opponent will have way more busted draw combos they can bluff versus better value hands (this is a general statement of course).
 
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I have to start rereading the basics. I struggled following the entire thread. Seems like I have big problem without pokerstove with the equity against a range . And this is 2NL. Still the same situation could happened with a fish at higher stakes. Good spot to miss a chance of making money.
Thx for the lesson
 
LD1977

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John - So what you are saying is that check/call is the best in this line if I am doing this with an overpair (paired board in this concrete hand validates Jx hands and makes the scenario worse for me, but generally speaking)? There are more draw combos than value combos, but villain probably doesn't bet them all - or more specifically, some villains do but a percentage of villains don't :D also, the whole check/call thing is supposed to be bad most of the time, no? This is why I try to implement more bet/folding.
 
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