Lets say he has some kind of flush draw (which was probably the case here).
- On the flop his equity is 35% or more (I plugged various suited stuff into PokerStove), he calls 0.80 (pot is 2.55)... good for him.
- On the turn, lets say I did bet bigger (2.00), his equity is now around 20%, he calls 2.00 and the pot is 6.55... not great for him if I am psychic and if flush hits I check/fold (Which is supposed to be a weak line, right? He might have had a straight draw here easily.)
, BUT if I bet/fold then my half pot river bet (lets say 3.30) makes the pot 9.95 and this makes his turn call retroactively profitable.
River bet smaller than half pot is questionable since he can see weakness and can raise a lot of stuff here, and I have to fold a lot.
This is only if he has a baby FD (32s, 43s) and nothing else, if he has anything better (nut FD, FD + pair, or FD + gutshot, which is not unlikely with this board) this is even better for him. So I do have equity edge but can't improve (even a Q is arguably not a great turn card for me) and I can't make any draws unprofitable unless I overbet.
Mr Sandbag - Fish always assume you have a big pair with this line and act accordingly. It is not rocket science, they are drawing to what they think is nuts and to hell with any further thinking (this is great if in fact you have a better draw and you play it aggressively and you hit, but whatever).
Also quite a few of them are willing to take a river shot if their draw misses but another one hits and PFR finally checks, and then I have to hero call (questionable + explicitly stated on the recent workshop to be bad and I tend to agree) or fold (also questionable since there are plenty of bluffs here and I would have pot odds
to justify a call).
Problem is I just don't see how this situation can be made clearly profitable with normal line such as the one I took here, and this stuff comes up super super often in 10NL, especially on weekends.