$10 NLHE Full Ring: Flopping set on a flush board

RodneyC86

RodneyC86

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$10 NLHE Full Ring: Flopping set on a flush board

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 23/13/7

I normally fold sets to flop aggression on these boards.... but this time I decided to go offroad, I have 35% pot equity anyway. Should I have just called the flop and see his reaction?

Party Poker - $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Holdem (6 players)
Party Poker Hand Converter Tool from CardsChat.com

SB: $4.21
BB Hero: $10.10
UTG: $15.06
MP: $11
CO: $13.75
BTN: $5

Pre-flop: ($0.15) Hero is BB and dealt :8c4: :8s4:
UTG calls $0.10, MP raises to $0.40, 3 folds, Hero calls $0.30, UTG calls $0.30

Flop: ($1.25) :8d4: :10d4: :6d4: (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $1, MP folds, Hero raises to $3.20, UTG raises to $14.66 (All-in), Hero calls $6.50 (All-in)

Turn: ($25.61) :8d4: :10d4: :6d4: :9d4: (2 players)

River: ($25.61) :8d4: :10d4: :6d4: :9d4: :4h4: (2 players)

Final Pot: $25.61

Showdown below:
BTN mucks his hand
Outcome: UTG wins $4.96
BTN mucks his hand
Outcome: UTG wins $19.72


EDIT: Well I won't normally fold to a single bet, just to a check raise, but doesn't apply here obv
 
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mrmonkey

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How many hands are villain's stats over? Given villain's aggression I'm OK with getting it in here. I see plenty of top pair + flush draw type hands in his range or gutshot straight draw + flush draw hands as well, so I think we have good equity. Some bad aggro villains at these stakes will also overplay TPGK+ hands even without a diamond.
 
mrmonkey

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Well, I'm still getting it in vs. a relatively unknown. The only way I play this differently is if effective stacks are very deep or if I have a ton of history on villain with a very high VPIP and know for a fact they basically never 3bet postflop.
 
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JCgrind

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nh wp. never fold this. the amount of times villain shows up here w overs + 1 diamond, overpair w 1 or NO diamonds (lol) TP + diamond etc etc is huge so ye my moneys on like JdJx-AdAx (i dont think he jams the nut flush on the flop like this ever)
 
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doomasiggy

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Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 23/13/7

I normally fold sets to flop aggression on these boards....

Don't. He basically never has a flush here. Can't remember what exactly the odds are of flopping a flush are but it's tiny. He has like Ax flush draws, top pair good kicker, lots of combos that you beat.
 
Ronaldadio

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Don't. He basically never has a flush here. Can't remember what exactly the odds are of flopping a flush are but it's tiny. He has like Ax flush draws, top pair good kicker, lots of combos that you beat.

I think it is about 0.9%
 
RodneyC86

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I think it is about 0.9%

Well I guess folding 8 set is folding the third nuts.... When you think about it, it's like folding QQ preflop in a 25bb deep stack since 4/100 bb is already in after preflop. Ship away :) thanks guys
 
wagon596

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I don't claim to be a pro (that's for sure) but I thought I would throw my two cents in. Of course it's easy to say things after the fact. If you had just called the original one dollar bet,,,, and then the turn came with another straight and flush card that would really be scary.
I guess what I'm trying to say is yes, I think it was the right move. But with saying that, I don't think I have what it take to make that call. That's why I play micro stakes. I couldn't see who won. Did you win the hand?
 
RodneyC86

RodneyC86

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I don't claim to be a pro (that's for sure) but I thought I would throw my two cents in. Of course it's easy to say things after the fact. If you had just called the original one dollar bet,,,, and then the turn came with another straight and flush card that would really be scary.
I guess what I'm trying to say is yes, I think it was the right move. But with saying that, I don't think I have what it take to make that call. That's why I play micro stakes. I couldn't see who won. Did you win the hand?

I lost in the end' he flopped the nuts and my set did not improve to a full house.
Already priced in to call though because even against a nut flush I have 35% equity
 
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Sori

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I'm never folding here, like you said you have 35% against the nut flush and so many times he shows worse.
 
JCgrind

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I lost in the end' he flopped the nuts and my set did not improve to a full house.
Already priced in to call though because even against a nut flush I have 35% equity

oh i didnt even look at effective stack, i thoguht you were way deeper. ye obv 100% call simply on the maths
 
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