$10 NLHE Full Ring: FD and 2 overs otf, c/r'd, get it in?

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 18/14/2

Hand History Converter

MP1: $8.15
Hero (MP2): $10.00
CO: $9.85
BTN: $8.29
SB: $12.13
BB: $10.00
UTG: $8.00
UTG+1: $3.75

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is MP2 with J :heart: A :heart:
3 folds, Hero raises to $0.40, 3 folds, BB calls $0.30

Flop: ($0.85) 3 :heart: 7 :heart: 5 :spade: (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.53, BB raises to $1.30, Hero calls $0.77

Turn: ($3.45) T :club: (2 players)
BB bets $1.80

Hey,

Got to the turn and I thought that I maybe should have just got it in otf, at the time I thought the line looked strong, kinda got a bit of monsters under the bed and was like, meh 30% vs a set, pot odds arent that bad and I can check it back on missed turns sometimes so will maybe get to see the river anyways, he then fires the turn, what do we do now? one card left to come but unless he plays draws aggressively, which we dont know, he's showing some strength.

Thoughts?

Call the turn. We have plenty of money behind, and villain has a decent amount of overpairs in his range. I definitely do not get it in on the flop against a TAG with a tight range.

You're getting just under 3:1 so with just a FD we're not getting odds, but I think saying the A or J is enough to win is pretty likely here b/c villains range is prob 88/99/78 with a few draws/bluffs thrown in. So on the turn I probably call and see what he does. That said, I prefer a re-pop on the flop b/c we're not afraid to get it in here and I'm fine picking up money when bluffs/pairs fold. If we hit our flush he's gonna slow down a lot anyways

I think it's all on how villain perceives us.If you have been cbetting the ever loving hell out of him this is a pretty good board to raise on.If you haven't been running his ass over,this is a set like 80% of the time because of the flat pre.If thats true just figure out if your implied odds are good enough to make the call on the turn imo.

c9h13no3 said:

I definitely do not get it in on the flop against a TAG with a tight range.

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don't you think we have a lot of fold equity against his middle pairs ? Not sure since i don't play these stakes.

It's not standard for a FR $10 18/14 type who flatted from the blinds to C-R medium pocket pairs on the flop IMO.

BelgoSuisse said:

don't you think we have a lot of fold equity against his middle pairs ? Not sure since i don't play these stakes.

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On the turn, sure we can get 88-99 to possibly fold. But I don't think anyone folds overpairs ever at these stakes, especially not after raising the flop.

A pretty good rule about bluffing at low limits is: If your strategy includes getting him to fold top pair or better, its a bad idea.

Like you were saying earlier about 2NL, they may have TAG stats, but they're still likely fish in the grand scheme of things.

c9h13no3 said:

A pretty good rule about bluffing at low limits is: If your strategy includes getting him to fold top pair or better, its a bad idea.

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A better rule is: move up where they respect your raises...