$10 NLHE Full Ring: Facing big overbet shove on the river

T

ThunderPT

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Apr 28, 2010
Total posts
336
Chips
0
So, I've been getting crushed at $10NL for reasons I don't understand since I'm crushing $5NL (so I get my BR high enough to return to $10NL so I can lose some more) and I don't thing there's a big difference between these stakes. I used to blame it on tilt, since most of my bad plays would come after horrible beats, but I don't believe in that anymore. So, I decided that everytime a hand comes along that leaves me wondering if, not only did I play it bad but also, if I did make a mistake, it's the kind of mistake that could make me lose a lot of money. I need to get rid of the big mistakes I may still be doing before worrying about the close decisions.

Here's the hand in question. The Villain has been at a table for less than 50 hands and playing tight, so I have no reads on him other that he's been very passive. Also, he posted the BB on the CO instead of waiting for the BB and, though he bought in for the maximum, he didn't reload it to $10 after losing a bit, which are two factors pointing to fishy. Another factor to have in mind is, in the very previous hand, he limped with 88 and called 3 streets only to see his opponent's boat, so there's tilting possibility too.

full tilt poker $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players - View hand 1019605
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

UTG+1: $7.44
Hero (MP1): $18.50
MP2: $3.71
CO: $11.20
BTN: $11.41
SB: $12.79
BB: $10.00
UTG: $10.00

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is MP1 with 8
club.gif
8
diamond.gif

1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.10, Hero raises to $0.40, 5 folds, UTG+1 calls $0.30

Flop: ($0.95) Q
club.gif
J
club.gif
Q
spade.gif
(2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $0.60, UTG+1 calls $0.60

Turn: ($2.15) 2
heart.gif
(2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero checks

River: ($2.15) T
diamond.gif
(2 players)
UTG+1 bets $6.44 all in


Pretty standard PF, on the flop both plays (cbetting or checking) are alright and should be mixed up, on the turn I should check. Now, for the river decision, what would you do? My first thought was "he's bluffing" because it's a huge overbet, but I had more trouble trying to decide what could he be bluffing with.

So, trying to break this down, he has:
A boat with 22 or TT: Of course, most players would raise with TT PF, but he hasn't raised a single hand so far. He limped with 88, guess he could have limped with TT too. Explains the postflop action.
A straight with AK or 98s: what was said for TT could be said for AK. His VPIP would suggest he doesn't play suited connectors, but under 50 hands, we can't trust it.
A small pair: what I was putting him on by the river before he shoves. Fits all the action before the river. The overbet doesn't make sense though.
A bluff: If it's a bluff, he had a flush draw, the straight draws either got there or paired the T. Kind of explains the limp with a suited ace and the call on the flop.

Not a whole lot of bluffing hands, though I thought the bet sizing made them more likely. The problem is, I'm obviously getting terrible odds. If he's bluffing here 40% of the time, I still don't have the odds to call... He's he bluffing more often than this here?
 
brank

brank

Back in!
Silver Level
Joined
Dec 15, 2009
Total posts
1,354
Chips
0
I think you have a decent handle on the situation.

I fold here for the same reasons you stated. This line at the micros from a tighter player tends to be from someone who was hoping you'd bet the turn and lost value so is trying to make up for it by overbetting the river. Like you said this could also be TT getting there but seems less likely. You'd have to be pretty damn sure they are bluffing to make this a profitable call.
 
bgomez89

bgomez89

Resident Thugmaster
Silver Level
Joined
Jan 3, 2009
Total posts
3,127
Chips
0
As played i definitely would fold the river, not worth the gamble imo. I would however bet the turn because he could be calling a flop bet with small pairs, straight and flush draws and since the turn is a blank i think i'm fine with bet/folding. If he calls my turn bet then i just check back the river or fold if he bets
 
GotaLovePoke

GotaLovePoke

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Oct 30, 2008
Total posts
247
Chips
0
Fold 100%, he won't be shooting a blank the way you play the hand.

Who cares how fishy he is, he either has a pair of 10, a set of 10, a straight, a pair of jacks.

ANYTHING he would bring there beats your hand.
 
Pascal-lf

Pascal-lf

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Feb 26, 2010
Total posts
3,161
Awards
1
Chips
1
Ignore
 
Last edited:
T

ThunderPT

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Apr 28, 2010
Total posts
336
Chips
0
So, can we establish it was a pretty bad call?

Because I called. He showed Ac4c and I was like "YES, I KNEW IT! WHAT A CALL!!!". But later, when I was reviewing the hand, I didn't like my call at all. Sure, I was right this time and he is bluffing a good amount of time, but I needed him to be bluffing over 43% of the times (if I remember the numbers correctly) and that's a lot when there are some strong hands that also explain the action.

I went with my gut and a lot of players would say that's what I've got to do, but I don't agree. The question to ask isn't "Is he bluffing here?" (to which my gut answered yes), it's "How often is he bluffing here?" and I needed the answer to be at least 43% to call...
 
cjatud2012

cjatud2012

¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Silver Level
Joined
Mar 12, 2009
Total posts
3,904
Chips
0
I went with my gut and a lot of players would say that's what I've got to do, but I don't agree. The question to ask isn't "Is he bluffing here?" (to which my gut answered yes), it's "How often is he bluffing here?" and I needed the answer to be at least 43% to call...

you hit the nail right on the head.
 
C

ComplexPlaya

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Apr 14, 2008
Total posts
1,347
Chips
0
So, can we establish it was a pretty bad call?

Because I called. He showed Ac4c and I was like "YES, I KNEW IT! WHAT A CALL!!!". But later, when I was reviewing the hand, I didn't like my call at all. Sure, I was right this time and he is bluffing a good amount of time, but I needed him to be bluffing over 43% of the times (if I remember the numbers correctly) and that's a lot when there are some strong hands that also explain the action.

I went with my gut and a lot of players would say that's what I've got to do, but I don't agree. The question to ask isn't "Is he bluffing here?" (to which my gut answered yes), it's "How often is he bluffing here?" and I needed the answer to be at least 43% to call...

Calculate the flush draw/straight draw combos you think are in his range and see what % those hands are of his total shoving range here, that's probably air or nuts. It's probably higher than 43%, but I don't know how to calculate those things yet. Please do if you can, I am interested.

Then there is the problem - does he always shove his missed draws here, or does he do it 1 in 2 hands, 1 in 3 hands etc.

Gut feeling - that's not based on air, it's your unconscious, subconcious and body interpreting situations before your concsious mind can. I wouldn't dismiss it all that easily.
 
Stu_Ungar

Stu_Ungar

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
May 14, 2008
Total posts
6,236
Chips
0
Bet the turn for value rather than checking.

Then he wont have such an easy time bluff shoving.

When you start making big calls like this at micros you will loose more money than you make.
 
Stu_Ungar

Stu_Ungar

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
May 14, 2008
Total posts
6,236
Chips
0
Gut feeling - that's not based on air, it's your unconscious, subconcious and body interpreting situations before your concsious mind can. I wouldn't dismiss it all that easily.

Unfortunately a beginners "gut" will tell him to call more often than to fold or bluff reraise.

If the single biggest mistake made at micros is to call then there are a lot of players making mistakes by listening to their gut.

You will have an easier time calling bluffs in games where people are bluffing a high % of the time; unfortuantly this isnt the case with the micros.. people bluff but not with a high enough frequency to make hero calls with 4th pair
 
C

ComplexPlaya

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Apr 14, 2008
Total posts
1,347
Chips
0
Unfortunately a beginners "gut" will tell him to call more often than to fold or bluff reraise.

If the single biggest mistake made at micros is to call then there are a lot of players making mistakes by listening to their gut.

You will have an easier time calling bluffs in games where people are bluffing a high % of the time; unfortuantly this isnt the case with the micros.. people bluff but not with a high enough frequency to make hero calls with 4th pair

Yes because gut feeling is wrong for them, because they have a negative pattern buit up in their unconscious mind that they made a habit of without even knowing. So the gut feeling is the reflection of that, basically.
If your habits are good however this won't happen.

Anyway, I don't know what to say about the bluffing at micros, if it's from standard / passive players you are right, but I guess it depends where you play as well. At least on my site, most fish are uber aggro - maniacs these days at 10NL so you either call them down light or they run you over. I'm talking people like 40/35/5 or something like that, or worse. Obv. not the case for villain in this hand
 
Stu_Ungar

Stu_Ungar

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
May 14, 2008
Total posts
6,236
Chips
0
Yes because gut feeling is wrong for them, because they have a negative pattern buit up in their unconscious mind that they made a habit of without even knowing. So the gut feeling is the reflection of that, basically.
If your habits are good however this won't happen.

I would say that noone at micros has sufficient experience that their gut feeling would lead them in the right direction. I agree with subconcieous vs concios decisions etc, but the micros are full of beginners and by definition you wouldnt expect then to have developed a gut feeling.

Anyway, I don't know what to say about the bluffing at micros, if it's from standard / passive players you are right, but I guess it depends where you play as well. At least on my site, most fish are uber aggro - maniacs these days at 10NL so you either call them down light or they run you over. I'm talking people like 40/35/5 or something like that, or worse. Obv. not the case for villain in this hand

I tend to table select such that Im against the weakest players I can find. As the standard raises your winrate decreases. There is nothing to be gained by staying at tables where the opponents are more unpredictable than the normal.

A lot of people do this thinking this is the way they will become better, but as each successive stake is more aggressive than the last, why learn to deal with agro players when they are not the norm. Once you move up a level or two you will learn to beat these players as they become the norm.
 
ljove

ljove

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Sep 14, 2009
Total posts
233
Chips
0
I don't see problem to fold here.
You have 88 and there are T,J,Q on the board.
This is easy fold.
There are lot of cards that beats your hand
 
C

ComplexPlaya

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Apr 14, 2008
Total posts
1,347
Chips
0
I tend to table select such that Im against the weakest players I can find. As the standard raises your winrate decreases. There is nothing to be gained by staying at tables where the opponents are more unpredictable than the normal.

A lot of people do this thinking this is the way they will become better, but as each successive stake is more aggressive than the last, why learn to deal with agro players when they are not the norm. Once you move up a level or two you will learn to beat these players as they become the norm.

I agree wiht you man, but that's just not a choice for me where I play. The aggros outnumber the passives. It''s good to learn to play against them though, but highly costly imo. ANd big variance obviously, but they can be the fast track to a lot of quick BI's.
 
T

ThunderPT

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Apr 28, 2010
Total posts
336
Chips
0
Bet the turn for value rather than checking.

Why? I have a SDV type hand, why would I want to make the pot bigger? What I lose by being called by the hands that beat me outweights the risk of giving him a free card when he's drawing, imo... Thoughts?
 
WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Nov 7, 2007
Total posts
22,973
Chips
0
Why? I have a SDV type hand, why would I want to make the pot bigger? What I lose by being called by the hands that beat me outweights the risk of giving him a free card when he's drawing, imo... Thoughts?

Bet the turn because the board is drawy and villain can call with worse. The river is where you should be checking behind with your SD value.
 
Top