$10 NLHE Full Ring: Facing big overbet shove on the river
So, I've been getting crushed at $10NL for reasons I don't understand since I'm crushing $5NL (so I get my BR high enough to return to $10NL so I can lose some more) and I don't thing there's a big difference between these stakes. I used to blame it on tilt, since most of my bad plays would come after horrible beats, but I don't believe in that anymore. So, I decided that everytime a hand comes along that leaves me wondering if, not only did I play it bad but also, if I did make a mistake, it's the kind of mistake that could make me lose a lot of money. I need to get rid of the big mistakes I may still be doing before worrying about the close decisions.
Here's the hand in question. The Villain has been at a table for less than 50 hands and playing tight, so I have no reads on him other that he's been very passive. Also, he posted the BB on the CO instead of waiting for the BB and, though he bought in for the maximum, he didn't reload it to $10 after losing a bit, which are two factors pointing to fishy. Another factor to have in mind is, in the very previous hand, he limped with 88 and called 3 streets only to see his opponent's boat, so there's tilting possibility too.
View hand 1019605
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Hero (MP1): $18.50
($0.15) Hero is MP1 with 8
, UTG+1 calls $0.10, Hero raises to $0.40
, 5 folds
, UTG+1 calls $0.30
($0.95) Q[image: http://static.deucescracked.com/images/club.gif] J[image: http://static.deucescracked.com/images/club.gif] Q[image: http://static.deucescracked.com/images/spade.gif] (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $0.60
, UTG+1 calls $0.60
($2.15) 2[image: http://static.deucescracked.com/images/heart.gif] (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero checks
($2.15) T[image: http://static.deucescracked.com/images/diamond.gif] (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $6.44 all in
Pretty standard PF, on the flop both plays (cbetting or checking) are alright and should be mixed up, on the turn I should check. Now, for the river decision, what would you do? My first thought was "he's bluffing" because it's a huge overbet, but I had more trouble trying to decide what could he be bluffing with.
So, trying to break this down, he has:
A boat with 22 or TT: Of course, most players would raise with TT PF, but he hasn't raised a single hand so far. He limped with 88, guess he could have limped with TT too. Explains the postflop action.
A straight with AK or 98s: what was said for TT could be said for AK. His VPIP would suggest he doesn't play suited connectors, but under 50 hands, we can't trust it.
A small pair: what I was putting him on by the river before he shoves. Fits all the action before the river. The overbet doesn't make sense though.
A bluff: If it's a bluff, he had a flush draw, the straight draws either got there or paired the T. Kind of explains the limp with a suited ace and the call on the flop.
Not a whole lot of bluffing hands, though I thought the bet sizing made them more likely. The problem is, I'm obviously getting terrible odds
. If he's bluffing here 40% of the time, I still don't have the odds to call... He's he bluffing more often than this here?