$10 NLHE Full Ring: double barrel against TAG. Call/fold?

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 18/7/4.3 (#136 tracked hands)

8 handed, Villain UTG+2 (stack of $10.00); Hero BTN+1 (stack of $11.29)

Hero delt:

all folds to Villain who raises to $.35
folds to me. I just call (reasoning behind this is because this guy has a very tight raising range (7% ==> aka 88+, A10s+, AJo+).

Flop: :Ac4: ($.85)

Villain C-bets $.63, I call

Turn: ($2.11)

Villain Double barrels for $1.58

Hero: Do I call/fold?


Analysis: I'm a known LAG/regular at this table as well as Villain, and he most likely has stats on me. His Raising range is very tight, but Jacks still beat a decent portion. Lets break it down. Please correct me if you see anything wrong in my Combinations.

top 7% of hands (based off ICMizer) is as follows:

88 99 TT JJ QQ KK AA (6 combinations for each pocket pair0 ==> 6*7 =42
AJo AQo AKo (12 combinations for each) ==> 12*3 = 36
ATs AJs AQs AKs (4 combos for each) ==> 4*4 = 16

total combos = (42+36+16) = 94

QQ KK AA are only hands that beat me (6*3) = 18 hand combinations that beat me, (94-18) and 76 that don't. Well, pre-flop, that is.
Factoring in the Ace that he could have that leaves.....the last 36 and 16 combos that are now beating me, so (36+16+18) = 70 that beat me, 24 that don't.


His Aggression factor of 4.3 is also very high to what I am normally seeing, so I would assume him to bet this size whether on a bluff/semibluff/any ace.


idk guys, what do you think considering his pfr/AF/my combinations, etc?

Normally this would be a great spot to fold. However, since his aggression is so high I'd probably call a second barrel planning to give up on the river. If a diamond or ace falls on the river call again. He will plan to bluff a diamond, because he likes to use aggression to win and represent stuff. If an ace falls he'll perceive you as less likely to have it and fire again. Everything else fold.

Oh, if a jack falls on the river obviously don't fold.

I agree with the call on the flop, in the polished poker thread we looked at the fact that if you 3 bet JJ and the villain calls then your equity decreases quite a bit as he calls with the overcard type hands with aces kings and queens which reduces your equity. It you call you keep in the 77 88 99 that you crush.
If you are considering folding now then why not fold on the flop?
Your equity on the flop was only 40% against a 7% opening raise range with an ace on the flop. It now sinks to 33% after the turn and you still have no idea if he has an ace.
Your only real hope is to float/bluff but the 2nd barrel suggests he has an ace and imo it will be difficult to shift him off it.
Is he a barreler? how often does he go to showdown once he's seen the flop? These are the questions I'd be looking to answer on the flop and make my plan for the hand at that point, not now on the turn....
JJ is so difficult to play I actually prefer personally to 3 bet them and if called rep any overcards and or bet for value if unders fall. i'm rarely putting another cent in thereafter if they are still calling on the flop.

Figaroo2 said:

Is he a barreler? how often does he go to showdown once he's seen the flop? These are the questions I'd be looking to answer on the flop and make my plan for the hand at that point, not now on the turn....

Click to expand...

Yeah the thing is he does tend to barrel when he decides to play a hand. WTSD is 30%, WT$D is 57%.

Also are you referring to a specific poker thread when you said "polished poker thread"? I was a bit confused as to how you arrived at some of your equity percentages. I thought you just had to take his PFR range like I did with the combinations and figure out how many combos you were ahead. What else am I missing?

When figuring out equity percentages it isn't enough to determine the combos that beat you, the ones that don't, and put it in a fraction.

beats on a board, but the equity isn't 100%.

In order to determine your equity you have to determine your chance against every hand in his range and then find the average. This would take a long time and it is easier to use a poker calculator like Equilab in order to get the job done quickly.

https://www.cardschat.com/forum/cash-games-11/polished-poker-vol-i-study-group-227214//

equity calculation

JJ v 7% opening range preflop, flop and river....

once the A falls on the flop you are only beating 77-10s plus KQ...too many aces around .....fold on that flop, you aren't improving without a jack

Some things you should consider:

1) 136 hands is not enough hands to accurately get a read off stats like turn aggression.
2) Villian is tight so he may be barrelling a lot because he actually has something.
3) villian is raising from EP so his range is likely even stronger than top 7%
4) the ace smashes his very narrow range and he bet big on the flop. you can expect him to have hit the ace a bunch

you should fold on the flop

I agree on folding the flop here. You can't check raise the flop since you are a known LAG. You'll be facing a difficult spot on the river here. There are so many Ace on his UTG+2 preflop raise here.

Easy call here.

Thanks for the responses guys. Figaroo - the link and equity screenshots were especially helpful.

mottotom27 said:

Some things you should consider:
1) 136 hands is not enough hands to accurately get a read off stats like turn aggression.

you should fold on the flop

Click to expand...

Yeah, I hadn't thought about 136 hands not being enough, but for turn AF factor I guess you need hundreds and hundreds.


One thing that I slightly disagree with (or maybe am a little uniformed about) is folding on the flop, and a lot of you were suggesting that. Technically speaking, I have less than 50% equity (40%), but I feel like the times Villain is bluffing or has a lesser pocket pair here, he is still going to C-bet that every time (or at least I would assume a good TAG to C-bet that against a LAG)

If I call his flop C-bet and he doesn't have strong holding, there is a chance he might just check the turn.


Doesn't this make calling the flop still equitable, even though technically I have 40% equity?

glemly said:

One thing that I slightly disagree with (or maybe am a little uniformed about) is folding on the flop, and a lot of you were suggesting that. Technically speaking, I have less than 50% equity (40%), but I feel like the times Villain is bluffing or has a lesser pocket pair here, he is still going to C-bet that every time (or at least I would assume a good TAG to C-bet that against a LAG)
If I call his flop C-bet and he doesn't have strong holding, there is a chance he might just check the turn.
Doesn't this make calling the flop still equitable, even though technically I have 40% equity?

Click to expand...

Yes 40% of the time he will miss the flop and have nothing and you might take it down when he checks the turn...
but 60% of the time he won't and you probably lose..Its simple cash games maths....it negative EV to continue after the flop in this spot...over many trials you will lose money in this spot...so unless you think you can outplay him via some other weakness like floating him and bluffing you should in theory fold.
here the ace hits his range strongly on a non scary flop,,you are never likely to be able to push him off the hand imho.
If he was a fish or a had a wider range you can continue bit against tight opening ranges I would suggest you just fold and wait for softer spots.
You said yourself "70 that beat me, 24 that don't."

You have to look at his range as a whole. You may beat a few pocket pairs but overall there are more hands that beat you than hands you can beat. He also opened from EP so his range is weighted towards big aces. Another indication is his betsizing - he bet close to pot indicating a lot of strength. if he had a hand like a low pocket pair you would expect him to bet more like half pot to risk less for more or less the same information about your hand.

Call / fold to double barrel - This is situational and player specific. You mentioned villain's opening range which is very tight. Usually players who have such a tight opening range tend to not double barrel with air.

So in this situation the flop c-bet is strong but calling off one street is ok although against such tight players a case can be made to fold outright here, but we simply have to give up on the turn as it would be too stubborn to call with our hand here since he is more likely to have an ace. So i think it should be a fairly simple fold on the turn.