$10 NLHE Full Ring: double barrel against TAG. Call/fold?
Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF):
18/7/4.3 (#136 tracked hands)
8 handed, Villain UTG+2 (stack of $10.00); Hero BTN+1 (stack of $11.29)
all folds to Villain who raises to $.35
folds to me. I just call (reasoning behind this is because this guy has a very tight raising range (7% ==> aka 88+, A10s+, AJo+).
Villain C-bets $.63, I call
Villain Double barrels for $1.58
Hero: Do I call/fold?
Analysis: I'm a known LAG/regular at this table as well as Villain, and he most likely has stats on me. His Raising range is very tight, but Jacks still beat a decent portion. Lets break it down. Please correct me if you see anything wrong in my Combinations.
top 7% of hands (based off ICMizer) is as follows:
88 99 TT JJ QQ KK AA (6 combinations for each pocket pair0 ==> 6*7 =42
AJo AQo AKo (12 combinations for each) ==> 12*3 = 36
ATs AJs AQs AKs (4 combos for each) ==> 4*4 = 16
total combos = (42+36+16) = 94
QQ KK AA are only hands that beat me (6*3) = 18 hand combinations that beat me, (94-18) and 76 that don't. Well, pre-flop, that is.
Factoring in the Ace that he could have that leaves.....the last 36 and 16 combos that are now beating me, so (36+16+18) = 70 that beat me, 24 that don't.
His Aggression factor of 4.3 is also very high to what I am normally seeing, so I would assume him to bet this size whether on a bluff/semibluff/any ace.
idk guys, what do you think considering his pfr/AF/my combinations, etc?