$10 NLHE Full Ring: Difficult river fold with TPTK

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 19/9/0.75

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (9 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

CO ($14.74)
Button ($10)
SB ($10.60)
Hero (BB) ($10)
UTG ($10)
UTG+1 ($10)
MP1 ($8.10) This guy is a 19/9 so nothing that really grabbed my attention but playing a little short
MP2 ($8.60)
MP3 ($10.54)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q , A
2 folds, MP1 calls $0.10, 4 folds, SB calls $0.05, Hero bets $0.40, MP1 calls $0.30, 1 fold

Flop: ($0.90) 8 , Q , 7 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.55, MP1 calls $0.55

Ok so with the fairly moist board my C-bet was a little small. I didn't wanna scare him off.

Turn: ($2) 4 (2 players)
Hero bets $1.45, MP1 calls $1.45

Obviosly I need to barrel this turn to protect my hand. He will let me know if he has that flush!

River: ($4.90) Q (2 players)

Ok so I have QQQ with best kicker but I am OOP and concerned about that flush or if he is now sitting full if he flopped a set. He has been calling fairly quickly too.

My standard river bet is about 50% pot but I make it a little more but tell myself I WILL fold if he raises me. Surely if he didnt have the flush he would call and not raise? If he has the other Q but a worse kicker he would worry I had the flush and merely call too...

Hero bets $2.45, MP1 raises to $5.70 (All-In), Hero folds

He is not scared and the board scares me. I force myself to fold!

Total pot: $9.80 | Rake: $0.65

Well played?

Deceitful_Frank said:

Well played?

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No imo. You needed to call $2.25 on the end and there is just too much money in the pot to bet/fold that river. Your hand needed to be good only ~15% of the time for it to be +EV. Your trips are good way more than that.

Yes I know I was getting great odds but seriously, what is he ever going to raise that board with that I can beat?

Unless of course at 10NL he was good enough to sence that my bet of just over 50% pot was a strong blocking bet that he knew I would have to fold to the raise?!

I have used this tactic myself but would consider it quite advanced for an average 10NL player.

wouldn't check/calling be much better than bet/folding this river?

IMO bet/folding>check/calling>bet calling.

If I check then he will shove sensing weakness would he not?

I would sooner make the bet and than call the bet. Both options cost the same but he is never folding if I don't bet is he.

He has the case queen more often than the flush and he would have raised the flop with a set. He can also be bluffing (yeah it should never work because you should be committed but we see that's not the case). This is a NEVER fold situation.

Deceitful_Frank said:

IMO bet/folding>check/calling>bet calling.

If I check then he will shove sensing weakness would he not?

I would sooner make the bet and than call the bet. Both options cost the same but he is never folding if I don't bet is he.

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you really think he is going to shove as a bluff on a flushed board with 2 q out there? if he shoves its not a bluff, its for value, and then its a whole different question whether you think he does it with trips too. either way, you cant fold after making that river bet.

Deceitful_Frank said:

IMO bet/folding>check/calling>bet calling.

If I check then he will shove sensing weakness would he not?

I would sooner make the bet and than call the bet. Both options cost the same but he is never folding if I don't bet is he.

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how is bet/folding any good? he's giving you 4:1 odds on the river, so you only need to win 20% of the time for this to be profitable. He has worse trips at least that often, no? It's also possible that he's grossly misplayed AA or KK, so those two possibilities combined have to be worth more than 20% imo.

As for check/calling, yes, if we check to him he senses weakness... But that's sort of the point, no? Checking opens it up for him to bluff with the ace of spades, missed straight draws, pairs lower than queens, etc. So even if he pots it, he has to have worse only 33% of the time for the call to be correct, so that's a profitable option too I'd say.

Your logic is full of fail imo OP. Let's see...

Deceitful_Frank said:

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 19/9/0.75

Ok so with the fairly moist board my C-bet was a little small. I didn't wanna scare him off.

Do you really think there is anything that will call >1/2 pot here but fold to a pot sized bet? If so please name such holdings.

Turn: ($2) 4

(2 players)
Hero bets $1.45, MP1 calls $1.45

Obviosly I need to barrel this turn to protect my hand. He will let me know if he has that flush!

Betting to protect your hand is a fallacy, you bet for value. Obviously he may not let you know he has the flush because he has position and well that is the power of position.

River: ($4.90) Q

(2 players)

Ok so I have QQQ with best kicker but I am OOP and concerned about that flush or if he is now sitting full if he flopped a set. He has been calling fairly quickly too.

My standard river bet is about 50% pot

It's bad to have a standard river bet size, adjust it for every oponent

but I make it a little more but tell myself I WILL fold if he raises me. Surely if he didnt have the flush he would call and not raise? If he has the other Q but a worse kicker he would worry I had the flush and merely call too...

He does NOT worry about you having the flush. That's fancy play syndrome. (obv. some people might worry but a 10nl random does not)

Hero bets $2.45, MP1 raises to $5.70 (All-In), Hero folds

He is not scared and the board scares me. I force myself to fold!

Total pot: $9.80 | Rake: $0.65

Well played?

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Obv. bad fold given the pot odds. Even for your own sanity and to learn the game you should call, otherwise you'll never know what ppl can have in these situations.

I too like check/calling better, it's cheaper and can possibly induce bluffs (though unlikely from this guy on this board). Obv you will miss some value against Qx hands but lose more against flushes/straights. Most of his range being draws will fold here, and you don't like the range that calls/raises you. So you accomplish nothing.

Deceitful_Frank said:

Yes I know I was getting great odds but seriously, what is he ever going to raise that board with that I can beat?

Unless of course at 10NL he was good enough to sence that my bet of just over 50% pot was a strong blocking bet that he knew I would have to fold to the raise?!

I have used this tactic myself but would consider it quite advanced for an average 10NL player.

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You cant bet this river and fold to a min raise.

I agree that when he shoves you are may be beat but the price is far too good to fold.

I would suggest not making large bets on scary boards with the intention to folding to a raise.

You could have checked / bet really small on this river and then folded to a shove, but as played you are wrong to fold even though you are likley beat. The problem isnt "am I right to fold?" the problem is "was I right to bet so much with the intention of folding?"

Stu_Ungar said:

You cant bet this river and fold to a min raise.

I agree that when he shoves you are may be beat but the price is far too good to fold.

I would suggest not making large bets on scary boards with the intention to folding to a raise.

You could have checked / bet really small on this river and then folded to a shove, but as played you are wrong to fold even though you are likley beat. The problem isnt "am I right to fold?" the problem is "was I right to bet so much with the intention of folding?"

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You don't sound so sure that I played this badly.

I feel that I was right to bet but perhaps the bet size was in conceived. I left myself commited but then was there any amount that I could have bet that wouldn't?

If my bet was too small it would be recognised as a weak blocking bet. Obviously I wouldn't want this.

I really don't like bet/calling but I can see a place for check/calling and perhaps shove/failing! Perhaps he would not have shoved it all in and it would have cost me less than $2.45?

WVH reckons he will have trips more often than the flush. Perhaps I need to consult a book on poker math!

PS you are not trying to goad me again Stu... are you?

"moist board"

Deceitful_Frank said:

You don't sound so sure that I played this badly.

The bet/fold on the river is the largest mistake made in the hand. River mistakes are always the most costly so whilst you only made one big mistake, it was made on the most costly street.

Other than that the flop should be a bigger bet.

Up until the river its ok but the river is where it goes wrong. (I am assuming that you bet the turn as a value bet rather than a "I really hope he folds" bet)

I feel that I was right to bet but perhaps the bet size was in conceived. I left myself commited but then was there any amount that I could have bet that wouldn't?

If my bet was too small it would be recognised as a weak blocking bet. Obviously I wouldn't want this.

I really don't like bet/calling but I can see a place for check/calling. Perhaps he would not have shoved it all in and it would have cost me less than $2.45?



WVH reckons he will have trips more often than the flush. Perhaps I need to consult a book on poker math!

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...

this is a snap call.

Bet more on the flop, shove on the river.

forsakenone said:

this is a snap call.

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Definately.

This could be a bluff.

This could be a value bet from a weaker hand.

The odds are just too good.

atlantafalcons0 said:

Bet more on the flop, shove on the river.

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Personally I would shove the river because I want to maximise the value from the times I am ahead.

If I bet 1/2 pot (and I am pot committed) then I lose more money to bigger hands than I extract from smaller hands.

Stu_Ungar said:

Personally I would shove the river because I want to maximise the value from the times I am ahead.

If I bet 1/2 pot (and I am pot committed) then I lose more money to bigger hands than I extract from smaller hands.

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maximize value by shoving because if we bet 1/2 pot on the river sometimes villian will just call with KQ, QJ, Q10 etc?

And if we are beat we have to call when they shove anyway?

atlantafalcons0 said:

maximize value by shoving because if we bet 1/2 pot on the river sometimes villian will just call with KQ, QJ, Q10 etc?

And if we are beat we have to call anyway?

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Yes.

Stu_Ungar said:

Personally I would shove the river because I want to maximise the value from the times I am ahead.

If I bet 1/2 pot (and I am pot committed) then I lose more money to bigger hands than I extract from smaller hands.

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This is much easier to understand.

Note to self:

If on the river you are in a position where you would have to call the raise to your blocking bet. Its probably best to shove all-in.

I like this much better than the check/call line of play. Mainly because I can actually get my head around it!

Deceitful_Frank said:

This is much easier to understand.

Note to self:

If on the river you are in a position where you would have to call the raise to your blocking bet. Its probably best to shove all-in.

I like this much better than the check/call line of play. Mainly because I can actually get my head around it!

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If you think about it.. if you are ever in a position where you have to call a raise over your blocking bet.. it isnt actually blocking anything.

Stu_Ungar said:

...

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Some people just don't like free advice. They don't deserve extra after that imo

ComplexPlaya said:

Some people just don't like free advice. They don't deserve extra after that imo

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What do you mean by that?

You keep saying your river bet is a blocking bet. At 10nl most opponents don't even know what a blocking bet is let alone recognise one in a hand and try to counter it. People see you bet on the river and think you either have a hand or you don't, that's about it...