$10 NLHE Full Ring: Classic Baluga Theorem - gtfo??

Only 14 hands on villain but he was running something like 64/7.

Merge - $0.10 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3: http://www.pokertracker.com

BTN: $10.98
Hero (SB): $10.00
BB: $34.84
UTG: $4.64
UTG+1: $6.00
MP: $11.11
MP+1: $12.63
LP: $10.00
CO: $13.14

Hero posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10, UTG+1 posts DB $0.10

Pre Flop: ($0.25) Hero has Jh As

fold, UTG+1 checks, fold, fold, fold, CO calls $0.10, fold, Hero raises to $0.50, fold, UTG+1 calls $0.40, fold

Flop: ($1.20, 2 players) Jc 7c 9h
Hero bets $0.90, UTG+1 calls $0.90

Turn: ($3.00, 2 players) 2s
Hero bets $2.00, UTG+1 raises to $4.60 and is all-in, Hero??


Is this just Baluga theorem all the way and a super-standard fold? I'm 95% sure I should be betting the turn because I'm still way ahead of his calling range on the flop, but I doubt I'm ahead of his shoving range on the turn.

Baluga Theorem:

Re-evaluate your 1-pair hands as c/c c/r beats overpairs.

Since you're OOP he can't c/r. For sure he is shoving all better hands but with his stack he'd shove worse hands, too. Getting almost 4-1 there's no way you can fold, your sizing is not good if you wanted to be able to b/f turn after flopping TPTK on a super wet board. Call.

Against a competent player with a full stack this would be an easy fold.

Against this likely fish I'd probably call the extra $2.60 because I think he does this with enough worse Jx hands and draws to be +EV. If he has a monster (set or better) he'd be more inclined to flat the turn I think. It's close though.

Don't try to hero fold TPTK 60bb deep. Especially against a fish.

For $2.60 more into a pot of what? $7, agree with everyone else, he is still shoving all Jx hands, (JT and J8 come to mind in particular.) Then hands like 9Ts etc. So there is still a bunch of hands you beat here although you are probably beat most of the time, but I dont think you fold for nearly 4:1 ye

The pot odds are nice, but what's the villain's range when he shoves? Is a loose passive doing this with many hands worse than TPTK? More to the point, how likely are you to have 20% equity against his range?

Arjonius said:

The pot odds are nice, but what's the villain's range when he shoves? Is a loose passive doing this with many hands worse than TPTK? More to the point, how likely are you to have 20% equity against his range?

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This was more my thought. "Good" pot odds are only good if they are bigger than card odds. And I'm just not so sure he can call flop then raise with some rando Jx. But if he can it's a definite call.

I'm obv not PLANNING to bet/fold against a loose passive -> the main plan is to value bet the hell out of TPK. I definitely have to keep betting the turn BECAUSE it's so draw-y. I doubt people would recommend to make it smaller turn sizing either??

Ducky7 said:

For $2.60 more into a pot of what? $7, agree with everyone else, he is still shoving all Jx hands, (JT and J8 come to mind in particular.) Then hands like 9Ts etc. So there is still a bunch of hands you beat here although you are probably beat most of the time, but I dont think you fold for nearly 4:1 ye

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What makes you think a loose passive player is calling flop then shoving turn with top pair + gutshot??

I've definitely seen it happen, where a bad player realizes he's pot committed, has no real fold equity and just sticks it in. Of course, I've seen the opposite as well, where they just call down and even fold the river getting like 10-1.

If you're not bet-folding then don't bet-fold. If you want to bet a lot because the board is drawy, then pot the flop and shove the turn.

Scourrge said:

What makes you think a loose passive player is calling flop then shoving turn with top pair + gutshot??

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Coz they see top pair and are ready to bet their car, house and job on it

Ducky7 said:

Coz they see top pair and are ready to bet their car, house and job on it

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Loose PASSIVE -> you kind of ignored my point. If he's willing to stick it in with top pair he's def raising the flop right?

@baudib: yeah I definitely didn't plan my bet-sizing appropriately for the hand. Still something I'm working on, big time.