$10 NLHE Full Ring: BB 3 bets my pocket pair

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 35/14/1.7

(SB) $24.76 - VP:15 PFR:8 AF:1.2 W:35|40 STL:42|72 3B:4|83 CB:70|38 N:-20.82 hands:357
(BB) $11.37 - VP:35 PFR:14 AF:1.7 W:13|50 STL:50|0 3B:4| CB:75|50 N:3.04 Hands:51
(UTG) $5.36 - VP:33 PFR:33 AF:Inf. W:0| STL: 3B:0|100 CB:100| N:0.01 Hands:6
(MP) $11.70 - VP:21 PFR:13 AF:3.0 W:19|88 STL:50|71 3B:3|67 CB:63|50 N:28.10 Hands:256
(MP) $10 - VP:31 PFR:16 AF:1.2 W:19|25 STL:33|75 3B:8|0 CB:71|29 N:-20.47 Hands:77
Me(MP) $12.12 - VP:26 PFR:18 AF:2.1 W:32|52 STL:56|56 3B:8|3 CB:73|37 N:-23.02
(LP) $20.46 - VP:17 PFR:9 AF:6.5 W:15|75 STL:41|50 3B:0|0 CB:67|80 N:10.76 Hands:168

(CO) $20.94 - VP:21 PFR:17 AF:2.7 W:31|45 STL:46|67 3B:3|50 CB:59|50 N:4.25 Hands:193
A3F(BTN) $5.22 - VP:27 PFR:0 AF: W:0| STL:0|100 3B:0|100 CB:|100 N:-0.95 Hands:11


Pre Flop: Me(MP) with [8s,8h]
(UTG) raises 0.35, (MP) folds, (MP) folds, Me(MP) calls 0.35, (LP) folds, (CO) folds, (BTN) calls 0.35, (SB) folds,
(BB) raises 1.15, (UTG) folds, Me(MP) calls 0.90, (BTN) folds


Flop: (7c,Ks,4c) (2 players)
(BB) bets 1.54

I find myself in these types of spots a ton while multitabling. If i Don't hit a set I usually fold or maybe call. I am not aggressive in these situations. Am i losing value with the mid to low pocket pairs or what have you had success doing with these types of hands?(33-88) He's not raising a ton but playing a lot of hands. K's are def in his range but enough to fold here?

good fold imo

Fold is the safe play. Keep in mind if he's 3 betting there out of position, with his HUD stats, at 10NL, he likely has you beat preflop. Also, if u know ur set mining then u should readily fold when u don't hit.

IF u were to float him here, u should probably do it when u know u can steal on the turn since ur hand is probably not getting better. Only a good option if u have a read on him (bet size pattern, dbl barrel tendency, etc).

what I meant was fold preflop...

Because they either have AK or pockets at this stage especially if you include the caller... Sure it's a squeeze play and villains can be wider as a rule of thumb but he is squeezing an utg raiser so I doubt he'll be bluffin

Fold pre. You're paying far too much to hit a set.

This is a fold? Seems tight

nope cause bb is raising against utg which screams strength

Folding pre here is very tight. Ur calling 0.90 to stack him for $11 (while ur odds of hitting are 1:7). Only correct if u think he will fold to u when u hit ur set...

RakeMyLife said:

Folding pre here is very tight. Ur calling 0.90 to stack him for $11 (while ur odds of hitting are 1:7). Only correct if u think he will fold to u when u hit ur set...

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Hero has $10. Also the odds of hitting a set are 8:1. 1:7 are the odds against hitting your set.

Anyway. Even with $11 stacks, you're getting 12:1 to call. Therefore, you are assuming that you get stacks in 50% of the time. Not happening. It also doesn't include the times you continue with an overpair and are beat and the times you go set over set and bust.

Thanks everyone. Considering no fold equity with just a call. All the combos that can beat a set and the fact I'm 8-1 to hit just a set this does seem -ev overall

seventhsense said:

Hero has $10. Also the odds of hitting a set are 8:1. 1:7 are the odds against hitting your set.

Anyway. Even with $11 stacks, you're getting 12:1 to call. Therefore, you are assuming that you get stacks in 50% of the time. Not happening. It also doesn't include the times you continue with an overpair and are beat and the times you go set over set and bust.

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That's incorrect. 1:7 means odds of HITTING set. For every 1 time you hit, 7 times u will not.

As I said, you would call there believing you will stack him 100% IF you hit ur set. Also, the odds of set over set are neglible, and if you're set mining then ur not concerned about any other scenario. Again, I am not saying folding is incorrect, just that there are reasons to call here that can be profitable.

RakeMyLife said:

That's incorrect. 1:7 means odds of HITTING set. For every 1 time you hit, 7 times u will not.

As I said, you would call there believing you will stack him 100% IF you hit ur set. Also, the odds of set over set are neglible, and if you're set mining then ur not concerned about any other scenario. Again, I am not saying folding is incorrect, just that there are reasons to call here that can be profitable.

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I have never seen the maths done like that. 8.5/1 is the odds of hitting a set.

You said 'folding pre is very tight'. It isn't. Calling is actually quite loose.

seventhsense said:

I have never seen the maths done like that. 8.5/1 is the odds of hitting a set.

You said 'folding pre is very tight'. It isn't. Calling is actually quite loose.

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Not trying to belabor the point here, but ur confusing odds with probability. Odds = 1:7, probablilty = 1/8. Both equal to the same thing (12.5%). The distinction is important when calculating pot odds though. Pot ODDS are expressed as x:x, which is what ur considering when making a call for example...

RakeMyLife said:

Not trying to belabor the point here, but ur confusing odds with probability. Odds = 1:7, probablilty = 1/8. Both equal to the same thing (12.5%). The distinction is important when calculating pot ODDS though. Pot ODDS are expressed as x:x, which is what ur considering when making a call for example...

Click to expand...

If they are get to the same solution then there is no correct answer. You sound like my maths old maths teacher.

Anyway, probability is 1/8. Odds are 8/1. The 1/8 in odds is a huge favourite instead.

For example, Bolt could be 1/8 to win the 100m. While Gatlin is 8/1. Just an example. That is how odds work.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Odds

Source for confirmation of debate win.