re: Poker & $10 NLHE Full Ring: AQo on Btn ?
I think there are good arguments to fold preflop with AQo but now that you are in what can you put him on? He is solid and called your cold-call of a 3-bet; so what could he have?
--I'd exclude QQ-AA because he would have 4-bet them
--He might have AK (6) or possibly AQ (6), but I think he would fold AJ, AT, A9s
--I think he would call with 22-JJ (60). Only 99 hit the flop, and there were 3 combinations (given the 9 on the flop). Everything else misses and folds the flop
--He could have had suited connectors, say 67-KQ (28), of which 7 were diamonds. If we think he would play suited gappers, that's double.
Given the betting pattern, the hands that make sense are:
--Any diamond suited connectors (JT, 87, 76, 65)
--Any diamond suited gappers (KJ, T8, 86, 75)
A lot of the suited hands make sense--JT, KJ, T8, 86 would all shove here with a lot of outs. Actually I'd shove the flop with KJ or JTs.
Only 9 of the 23 hands are ahead of you, and the pot odds
are 2.5 to 1. Seems like a clear call. Someone can run poker stove to see what your equity is against this range, but I think it's about 47% or so (you are a 3:1 favorite over 8 of his hands).
If you think he wouldn't shove the turn with the drawing hands, then you fold. (You would be 6 out of 15 to chop.)
If you think he might flat the 3 bet and the overcall with AA or KK pre flop (a tricky and very risky play OOP), then you have 4 more hands crushing you on the turn. But I think the math still justifies a call on the turn, even in this case.