$10 NLHE Full Ring: Am I being a payoff wizard here ?

R

razzor94

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Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 17/10/1.1

$0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 9 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

234 hands on the guy. Steal is 25%, fold to 3bet 50% but only out of 2 hands.
Seems like a reg. Still a small hand sample to know anything about his postflop tendencies. Does he have any bluffs on the river ? He would have to have some FD or FD+pair combos to turn into a bluff. SD+FD probably gets it in earlier. I guess i was looking at that price on the river but am i really ever good here ?

SB: $11.81 (118.1 bb)
BB: $10.68 (106.8 bb)
UTG+1: $11.08 (110.8 bb)
UTG+2: $13.86 (138.6 bb)
MP1: $11 (110 bb)
MP2: $9.65 (96.5 bb)
MP3: $9.44 (94.4 bb)
Hero (CO): $16.13 (161.3 bb)
BTN: $33.21 (332.1 bb)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A
diamond4.gif
K
club4.gif

4 folds, MP3 raises to $0.30, Hero raises to $1, 3 folds, MP3 calls $0.70

Flop: ($2.15) 8
spade4.gif
K
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9
spade4.gif
(2 players)
MP3 checks, Hero bets $1.39, MP3 calls $1.39

Turn: ($4.93) 5
diamond4.gif
(2 players)
MP3 checks, Hero bets $3, MP3 calls $3

River: ($10.93) Q
diamond4.gif
(2 players)
MP3 bets $4.05 and is all-in, Hero calls $4.05

Results: $19.03 pot ($0.86 rake)
Final Board: 8
spade4.gif
K
heart4.gif
9
spade4.gif
5
diamond4.gif
Q
diamond4.gif
 
TheBigFinn

TheBigFinn

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In a nickle dime game TPTK is good on the river about 1/2 of the time, but is it good this half?

What hands does Villain bet call 3B PF? Assuming a 20% opening range I'd guess he calls at least 8%: 77+, A6s+, KJs+, QJs, JTs, T9s, AK, AQ (116 combos). Likely Villain 4 bets AA and KK. Against that range its a coin flip PF.

What range check calls a 8, 9, K flop after you showed strength PF? 88 & 99 for sure and you are getting killed by them but that's 12 combos. You are losing to AA (3 combos) KK (3 combos) and killing QQ & JJ (6 combos each). What else? AK, KQ, KJ, JT? The range only included KQs, KJs JTs AND you have and AK, so there are only 9 - AK combos where you tie, 3 KQs, 3KJs and 4 JTs, 10 total you are ahead of. Throw in AQs and AJs as bluffs and Villain and you a 57/43 favorite. on the flop.

Villain has no 5s in her 3B call range, so nothing changes. Except Villain has only one card to draw to. What does she call the flop with that doesn't call the turn? First AA and KK would have been heard from by now so there out. JJ, KQ and KJ are folding, so its a coin flip after the call on the turn.

I assumed Villain called with QQ and JTs and they just got there, so with the range that called the turn Villain is an 85/15 favorite. Assuming Villain dumped QQ and JTs and she is a 75/25 favorite, after you tie 1/2 of the time.

You have to pay $4 to win $15 on the river shove. Even thought you are a big dog the odds are to close to fold. A classic 'crying call.' Any card below an 8 on the river and you are a 65/35 favorite, but the Q is a killer.

Looking back over the hand, when you raise $3 on the turn Villain has to call $3 to win $8. That prices Villain in with almost her whole range and pretty much commits you to calling the river. I don't think double barreling is a good play. It doesn't fold out any winners and unless it gets QQ to fold, you haven't gained much. Bet to check and call a reasonable river bet, remembering TPTK loses about 1/2 the time on the river.
 
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K

KFlint

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The Q is a pretty terrible card, JTs gets there, KQ and QQ too. You don't beat anything that would play this way. Leading river is quite clear he has it. If he check this river, I check back. Fold against this type of villain, exploitable for sure but you won't be at these stakes.

You can still bet for value on the turn imo, maybe around half pot, and being in position we can normally check it back on the river and you have a 2 streets hand for sure.
 
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c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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Bet a little less on the flop and turn to give yourself options on the river. As played, there's zero way you can fold getting 3.5:1.
 
S

Sidetracked

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As played, I think you have to call. You're going to see some busted flush draws there, as well as some other random crap to make up for the times you're beaten.
 
B

braveslice

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Dunno I know we should be calling, but only hand that makes sense is KsJs (one combo) with frustrated fk-you shove on the river hero beats, we sometimes chop with AK but 6 combos total and this line not many times includes I would guess.

So he has to be many pure bluffs, would he ever expect hero to fold on the river anymore to mini shove, I don’t really think he is.
 
thylmanoid

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Likely Villain 4 bets AA and KK. Against that range its a coin flip PF.
What range check calls a 8, 9, K flop after you showed strength PF? 88 & 99 for sure and you are getting killed by them but that's 12 combos. You are losing to AA (3 combos) KK (3 combos)

If you say villain 4Bets AA and KK, you can't include the 3 combos of AA and 3 combos of KK on the flop. You don't add hands onto a range, you take them away meaning on your range villain does not have AA or KK.

You absolutely have to call here in my opinion. I think you still have good equity against his range. He some KJ, KT, QT, AT, AJ here too. Also the pot odds, you're too heavily committed.
 
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TheBigFinn

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If you say villain 4Bets AA and KK, you can't include the 3 combos of AA and 3 combos of KK on the flop. You don't add hands onto a range, you take them away meaning on your range villain does not have AA or KK.

Good point. Hero is further ahead on the flop than I gave him credit for. Turn and river don't change.
 
R

razzor94

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Thank you for your answers. It's been a while now since I posted this hand. I have been working on my game recently and it heavily involved determining ranges from PF to the river.
When i think about this hand now I think the only realistic and the best bluffs he can have here are TT and JJ without a spade. I could see some AJ or AT of spades but its debatable if he gets to the river with those hands given the action he took.
But if you think about it, if does in fact choose to bluff with those hands, what is he trying to get me off ?
My range should be pretty strong on the river and if i was somehow bluffing he is going to be ahead anyways. Only thing i might fold is AQ.

Now my opinion is against a 10NL full ring player you are rarely good in these spots with TPTK. The most exploitative thing to do here is to fold.
Yes you are at the bottom part but still top of your range, yes you don't have a spade blocker and yes you are getting pretty good odds but believe me i've been playing these stakes for a while now and its best to fold in these spots.

There are just too many value hands and not enough bluffs in his range.
If i remember correctly the villain had JTo.
 
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