$10 NLHE Full Ring: All-in bluff with striaight flush draw... an equity question.

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chattin35

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$10 NL HE Full Ring: All-in bluff with striaight flush draw... an equity question.

10nl Rush Poker - zero history with Villian.

MP3 ($22.59)
CO ($7.88)
Button ($9.95)
SB ($10)
BB ($9.97)
Hero (UTG) ($9.97)
UTG+1 ($4.01)
MP1 ($10)
MP2 ($10.70)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 7
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, 9
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Hero bets $0.30, 2 folds, MP2 raises $0.50, 1 fold, CO calls $0.50, 3 folds, Hero calls $0.20
Flop: ($1.65) J
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, 10
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, 2
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(3 players)
Hero checks, MP2 checks, CO checks
Turn: ($1.65) Q
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(3 players)
Hero bets $1.65, MP2 raises $3.30, 1 fold, Hero raises $7.82 (All-In)

Total pot if CO calls: $20.59

---

Alright, yeah, yeah, I know calling a 3bet oop with 79s is very -EV :D. I did it to practice hand reading and playing in marginal situations. I'll pay $.20 for a chance to learn something anyday. My question involves whether or not I correctly understanding pot equity.

I put villian on JJ+AQ+. With my flat call, he probably puts me on 88-JJ AK-AJ maybe QQ. Maybe doesn't even think about what I have given the stakes - I reason fold equity is low because of this. The LP dude is probably set mining.

I pick up the open-ended straight and flush draw on the turn minus 3 of the 4 king outs (which probably gives him the nut straight if he doesn't have it now).

After he raises the turn bet, I gotta figure about 20% equity in the pot if he 3bet with AK-JJ+. If I understand correctly, shoving there with my remaining $7.82 and the pot is $20.59 if he calls, I retain $4.12 and lose ~$3.70 over the long term?

Also, bonus question: Do you think the shove is +EV when FE is factored in with the straightened board? Thanks.
 
cjatud2012

cjatud2012

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This guy is a min-raise fiend, that's obnoxious. But anyway.

97s is a fold for me UTG in a full ring game, especially in Rush, where there is really no need to mix up your play. I understand trying to work on post-flop play, but my tip is this: playing post-flop is a lot easier if you have position. So if you have 97s, 54s, etc. on the button or cutoff, then I would suggest a raise. As played, calling the min-raise is pretty much mandatory.

Are we planning to c/c or c/r this flop? Either play would be better if we were in a heads-up pot, or we had the relative last position. This is why we typically don't play bad hands out of position (again, you said this was by design, but generally speaking this is not a winning play).

On the turn, I hate that we're getting min-raised again, but we probably need to fold, even though we have more than half our stack in the pot at this point. The reason is that we have the dummy end of the straight draw, our flush draw is weak, and we have no fold equity. I'm not sure what the $EV is, but it's not positive. I would bet less on this turn so that we can get away to a strong raise.
 
KardKlub

KardKlub

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Hand reading with no history? Now that would be a skill.

Practising or not you'll get hands like this in better positions all the time. The reason you shouldn't play it like you did is because the hand looks too good to fold to the min raise and you loose the prespective of whether you raised for value or as a bluff.

Try to polorise your range more.

As for Ev on the turn your way behind a made hand lets say best 20% and maybe 30% with the nuts flush draw. you'll have next to zero fold equity so we can't include that.

Bet on the flop when your equity and jamming fold equity is alot higher. If your not betting your draws then how do you get people to play with you when you hit a set on a two tone board etc.
 
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chattin35

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Bet on the flop when your equity and jamming fold equity is alot higher. If your not betting your draws then how do you get people to play with you when you hit a set on a two tone board etc.

That's a great point - thanks for the reply. If you have 50% equity, a shove is always going to be profitable with FE factored in. People with Aces and Kings will pay you off when you hit a set too if you are the precieved agro-donk shoving with a draw at the table.

Does my math look close? With 20% equity, you'll win $4.12 long term and net ~($3.70) by shipping it in there? Just wanted to make sure I understand the concept correctly.
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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Donk the flop. As played, check/call the turn.
 
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