$10 NL HE Full Ring: All-in bluff with striaight flush draw... an equity question.
10nl Rush Poker - zero history with Villian.
Hero (UTG) ($9.97)
: Hero is UTG with 7
, 9[image: http://www.handhistoryconverter.com/poker-cards/heart.gif]
Hero bets $0.30
, 2 folds
, MP2 raises $0.50
, 1 fold
, CO calls $0.50, 3 folds
, Hero calls $0.20
: ($1.65) J[image: http://www.handhistoryconverter.com/poker-cards/spade.gif], 10[image: http://www.handhistoryconverter.com/poker-cards/heart.gif], 2[image: http://www.handhistoryconverter.com/poker-cards/heart.gif] (3 players)
Hero checks, MP2 checks, CO checks
: ($1.65) Q[image: http://www.handhistoryconverter.com/poker-cards/spade.gif] (3 players)
Hero bets $1.65
, MP2 raises $3.30
, 1 fold
, Hero raises $7.82 (All-In)
Total pot if CO calls:
Alright, yeah, yeah, I know calling a 3bet oop with 79s is very -EV . I did it to practice hand reading and playing in marginal situations. I'll pay $.20 for a chance to learn something anyday. My question involves whether or not I correctly understanding pot equity.
I put villian on JJ+AQ+. With my flat call, he probably puts me on 88-JJ AK-AJ maybe QQ. Maybe doesn't even think about what I have given the stakes - I reason fold equity is low because of this. The LP dude is probably set mining.
I pick up the open-ended straight and flush draw on the turn minus 3 of the 4 king outs (which probably gives him the nut straight if he doesn't have it now).
After he raises the turn bet, I gotta figure about 20% equity in the pot if he 3bet with AK-JJ+. If I understand correctly, shoving there with my remaining $7.82 and the pot is $20.59 if he calls, I retain $4.12 and lose ~$3.70 over the long term?
Also, bonus question: Do you think the shove is +EV when FE is factored in with the straightened board? Thanks.