$10 NLHE Full Ring: AK wiffs flop OOP

Matt Vaughan

Matt Vaughan

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Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 18/14/4.86

Villain is TAG-ish, on the aggro side, and I know he's capable of pulling fast ones from time to time.

Merge - $0.10 NL - Holdem - 7 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3: http://www.pokertracker.com

MP: $23.92
CO: $7.90
BTN: $13.54
SB: $10.00
BB: $19.77
Hero (UTG): $13.19
UTG+1: $2.70

SB posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero has :kh4: :as4:

Hero raises to $0.30, fold, MP calls $0.30, fold, fold, fold, fold

Flop: ($0.75, 2 players) :6c4: :6h4: :8s4:
Hero bets $0.50, MP calls $0.50

Turn: ($1.75, 2 players) :jd4:
Hero bets $1.00, MP raises to $3.00, Hero calls $2.00

My thoughts were that on the turn he reps absolutely nothing.

River:

River: ($7.75, 2 players) :9d4:
Hero checks, MP bets $20.12 and is all-in, Hero ($9.39 to call)??

He insta-shoved the river, which made me think it was planned from the turn - ie a two-street bluff.
 
BelgoSuisse

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Even if villain has what he thinks is air that he needs to bluff with, there isn't much air that you beat.
 
JCgrind

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Looks like 88 to me. Why not fold turn? Sure you feel like you're getting exploited up te ying yang but he has pos so w/e IMO. I he's too much hassle I'd seriously just up and leave
 
hackmeplz

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Definitely fold turn. Not a huge fan of the barrel in the first place. If you really think he can do a bunch of spewy stuff just ch/c turn imo.
 
Matt Vaughan

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Even if villain has what he thinks is air that he needs to bluff with, there isn't much air that you beat.

Um? What air do I not beat? Maybe we have different concepts of the word "air."

Looks like 88 to me. Why not fold turn? Sure you feel like you're getting exploited up te ying yang but he has pos so w/e IMO. I he's too much hassle I'd seriously just up and leave

There are only 3 combos of 88. I'm not putting him on one hand on the turn.

Definitely fold turn. Not a huge fan of the barrel in the first place. If you really think he can do a bunch of spewy stuff just ch/c turn imo.

I'm trying to think in terms of ranges here. I don't see the turn as spewy per se... He's a reg who thinks one level above most of the people at 10, but he's not thinking above that really. In other words he knows how to make his hand look scary, but imo he doesn't really rep anything on the turn.

MAYBE he plays 88 like this sometimes, but with 88 why not raise the flop where he can look bluffier on that board? If he's trying NOT to blow me out of the hand when he holds 88 he could even smooth call the turn IP.

And I don't think 88 ever shoves the river. There's no reason for him to think I call an overshove on the river. He's not a spewtard so he's doing it for a reason. He's not thinking on a high enough level to over-shove to induce a hero-call I don't think.
 
ovitoo

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Don't mind cbet but check/fold turn.

Spoiler isn't really a spoiler. It's just the rest of the hand lol.
 
Matt Vaughan

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Don't mind cbet but check/fold turn.

Spoiler isn't really a spoiler. It's just the rest of the hand lol.

I wanted people to think about the turn and the river separately. (Ie consider the turn action without already knowing the river action.)

Again, nobody is making ranges. No offense but saying "check/fold turn" isn't hand-reading, and I'm not really interested in folding a hand because he raised and it looks scary. I want to fold a hand because I put him on enough hands that beat me, and not enough hands I beat that it is not profitable to call or raise, and therefore must fold which is 0 EV.
 
ovitoo

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I wanted people to think about the turn and the river separately. (Ie consider the turn action without already knowing the river action.)

Again, nobody is making ranges. No offense but saying "check/fold turn" isn't hand-reading, and I'm not really interested in folding a hand because he raised and it looks scary. I want to fold a hand because I put him on enough hands that beat me, and not enough hands I beat that it is not profitable to call or raise, and therefore must fold which is 0 EV.

K. If this is your mentality then you should be check/calling ott and river. Not double barrelling if you think you have showdown value.
 
Matt Vaughan

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K. If this is your mentality then you should be check/calling ott and river. Not double barrelling if you think you have showdown value.

The double barrel is more trying to get rid of PP, but I don't think he ever raises those which was I felt comfortable calling OTT. But I see your point and could be okay playing that way. I would just typically rather bet when I think I have FE from some hands that beat me, instead of letting him bet, since he can bet such a huge % of his range OTT imo.
 
BelgoSuisse

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villain's flat calling range is going to be small and medium pocket pairs, medium connectors and some Ax. On the river he has loads of trips, boats, some backdoor straights that he may play for value. He also has some air that he wants to bluff with. His air range would include AQ, AT, A7s-, underpairs, 79, T9 for missed straight draws that bink a supposedly worthless pair on the river. And obviously he doesn't turn that range into a bluff 100% of the time.

I think his value range is bigger than his bluff range, and you're not even ahead of his bluff range.
 
RodneyC86

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villain's flat calling range is going to be small and medium pocket pairs, medium connectors and some Ax. On the river he has loads of trips, boats, some backdoor straights that he may play for value. He also has some air that he wants to bluff with. His air range would include AQ, AT, A7s-, underpairs, 79, T9 for missed straight draws that bink a supposedly worthless pair on the river. And obviously he doesn't turn that range into a bluff 100% of the time.

I think his value range is bigger than his bluff range, and you're not even ahead of his bluff range.

+1

Let's not call down with A high this time okay?
 
B

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Of course you are going to be good sometimes but you aren't giving enough information to make this a call. "He can pull fast ones" isn't really helpful. You need to reason to suggest his river overbet shove range is heavily weighted to AQ- to make this call and you haven't given that. Something like this would work:

A. Floats paired boards to bluff.
B. He'll raise turn as a bluff.
C. Capable of turning marginal made hands into a bluff but then checks most of them back on river.
D. Would never flat JJ+ pre.
E. Significant history that suggests he knows you are capable of big folds.

The best hands for him to turn into a bluff would be some sort of 8x/QJ/97/T9/A9 hand (Because overbet shoving Jx/8x/9x is essentially turning his hand into a bluff) that blocks a lot of boat/overpair combos and you lose to all of those.
 
Matt Vaughan

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villain's flat calling range is going to be small and medium pocket pairs, medium connectors and some Ax. On the river he has loads of trips, boats, some backdoor straights that he may play for value. He also has some air that he wants to bluff with. His air range would include AQ, AT, A7s-, underpairs, 79, T9 for missed straight draws that bink a supposedly worthless pair on the river. And obviously he doesn't turn that range into a bluff 100% of the time.

I think his value range is bigger than his bluff range, and you're not even ahead of his bluff range.


Of course you are going to be good sometimes but you aren't giving enough information to make this a call. "He can pull fast ones" isn't really helpful. You need to reason to suggest his river overbet shove range is heavily weighted to AQ- to make this call and you haven't given that. Something like this would work:

A. Floats paired boards to bluff.
B. He'll raise turn as a bluff.
C. Capable of turning marginal made hands into a bluff but then checks most of them back on river.
D. Would never flat JJ+ pre.
E. Significant history that suggests he knows you are capable of big folds.

The best hands for him to turn into a bluff would be some sort of 8x/QJ/97/T9/A9 hand (Because overbet shoving Jx/8x/9x is essentially turning his hand into a bluff) that blocks a lot of boat/overpair combos and you lose to all of those.

Ty for the vastly improved posts - sorry for the less-than-specific read.

@Belgo: If he was bluffing the turn and binked a pair on the river, I think it's possible he shoves, but there's no chance he insta-shoves. If he plans to shove river as a bluff, and then gets some showdown value, for most players (and this one) that isn't a change to an auto-value-shove without at least some thought.

@baudib: Good point. I'll try to add what info I can, but I'm less-than-good about note-taking. A lot of it is tendencies but I'll address the specifics that you mentioned.

A. He definitely floats some boards with the intention of bluffing later. I wouldn't have said paired boards specifically though.
B. He'll raise turn as a bluff. Yes. Seen it on multiple occasions against various player types.
C. Less sure on this one but from how I've seen him play some hands I'd say he's more likely to take SDV-ish approach to marginal made hands. Not saying impossible for him to turn them into a bluff at times but I've never seen it happen.
D. Obv I can't say he would literally NEVER flat JJ+ pre, but I have no reason to think that he would.
E. He's a (relatively) thinking reg but I have no reason to suspect he takes notes or has any specific read on me that comes from something other than a HUD.


Obviously (or maybe not - I know I'm prob the worst player ITT) I'm not able to consider ALL these factors with a 15 second timer or whatever it is, so a lot of it I have to attribute to what it seemed his play would be consistent with based on my feel of his style. Which isn't the best, so I appreciate the more scientific approach to the hand - thanks guys.
 
JCgrind

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villain's flat calling range is going to be small and medium pocket pairs, medium connectors and some Ax. On the river he has loads of trips, boats, some backdoor straights that he may play for value. He also has some air that he wants to bluff with. His air range would include AQ, AT, A7s-, underpairs, 79, T9 for missed straight draws that bink a supposedly worthless pair on the river. And obviously he doesn't turn that range into a bluff 100% of the time.

I think his value range is bigger than his bluff range, and you're not even ahead of his bluff range.

This is pretty much what I meant. I don't necessarily c/f turn nor put him on 88. I put him on 88 once I see the river action (I doubt he is spew bluffing, as when you x2 barrel and then call a raise, so you look super strong- most of your air 3bs or folds turn, value hands just call, so your turn call looks like something big. Then he proceeded to overbet jam the river. I don't see how his isn't value. 88 just makes the most sense to me. Sure AK could be good, but unless he's a complete idiot, this is a snap fold. I just don't see what he can float the flop with, then decide to raise a totally non blank card that hits your percoeved range and then when you call (in a spot where there are literally no draws/air in your range and you have to be pretty damn strong) and then still jam the river. Its just way too stupid to bluff here. It has to be a value bet.

Was thinking it shouldnt be JJ, but since you're UTG that line would totall make sense too...
 
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Matt Vaughan

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I agree JJ is a particularly scary hand to consider, but why wouldn't he raise JJ on the flop? Just b/c I raised UTG doesn't mean I hold QQ+/AK. And why wouldn't he raise 88 on the flop? How can he ever expect me to fold any of my range on that flop to a raise?

I could be wrong but it just looks so air-floatish to me. What concerns me most is that I can't make anything that makes sense on the turn make sense in the context of his flop play, and nothing I expect him to float the flop with improves on the turn and makes him play like that - nothing except air. And I don't have to put much air into his range to make the river call okay.

Imo the turn is the most marginal spot. I agree it was a pretty iffy call on my part on the turn but I really think the river is a call.

I just don't see what he can float the flop with, then decide to raise a totally non blank card that hits your percoeved range and then when you call (in a spot where there are literally no draws/air in your range and you have to be pretty damn strong) and then still jam the river. Its just way too stupid to bluff here. It has to be a value bet.

Was thinking it shouldnt be JJ, but since you're UTG that line would totall make sense too...


I don't see the J as hitting my perceived range that strongly tbh but your overall assessment makes sense to me. But my perceived range is something like AT or AJ+, maybe KQ, and obv JJ+. For arguments sake we'll say AJ+ and JJ+. The J only improves 15 out of 65 of my combos.

I guess I may have placed a little too much weight onto "this doesn't add up," when it could just be a line that I didn't understand. I think there's still interesting discussion going on so I'll hold off on results for at least another day or so.

Edit: If anything, if I think he's bluffing the turn a lot (or ever turning marginal hands into a bluff) I could just shove over (kind of a huge bet) or raise to blast him out of the pot, and he could potentially fold marginal hands like TT or even Jx hands, as a big turn 3b would almost always look like an overpair, right? (I don't really bluff 3b turns... like ever.)
 
ovitoo

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I'm over it. I spent a few hours going over 200+ hands of yours. And your still on about this misplayed one.
 
Matt Vaughan

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o_O

I can't tell if that's dismissive or you're actually pissed? And thanks again for reviewing my hands... >.<
 
Matt Vaughan

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Anyway sorry if I'm just 100% wrong about this hand and "got lucky" or whatever, but I can't help playing devil's advocate when I saw what happened and it didn't line up at all with what anyone was saying.

It's always possible that I caught him tilt-spewing or something and it'll never happen again in a million years, but it's tough to completely discount how the hand actually played out.

Cheers and thanks again for the input everyone. :)
 
ovitoo

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Anyway sorry if I'm just 100% wrong about this hand and "got lucky" or whatever, but I can't help playing devil's advocate when I saw what happened and it didn't line up at all with what anyone was saying.

It's always possible that I caught him tilt-spewing or something and it'll never happen again in a million years, but it's tough to completely discount how the hand actually played out.

Cheers and thanks again for the input everyone. :)

+1:icon_thum

Not bad to post, just think it may belong in the brags/beats section lol.

GL!
 
ovitoo

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Everyone, every once in awhile, makes a "-ev decision" based off reads. Just doesn't make for good hand analysis.
 
Matt Vaughan

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Everyone, every once in awhile, makes a "-ev decision" based off reads. Just doesn't make for good hand analysis.

Really good point. I may have been looking for verification on what was mostly a gut-based decision haha. Cheers anyway :) (to the brag section it goes! :D )
 
JCgrind

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I agree JJ is a particularly scary hand to consider, but why wouldn't he raise JJ on the flop? why would he raise JJ OTF. i agree bc you raised it doesnt mean QQ+ AK, but if he raises JJ OTF wtf is in your UTG range that can call that he beats? its like TT only. i srsly think raising JJ on that flop is super bad and that most people know thatJust b/c I raised UTG doesn't mean I hold QQ+/AK. And why wouldn't he raise 88 on the flop? How can he ever expect me to fold any of my range on that flop to a raise?this is a good point, but i think mostly bc just calling looks super floaty and there isnt much you can have if you arent holding QQ+

I could be wrong but it just looks so air-floatish to me. What concerns me most is that I can't make anything that makes sense on the turn make sense in the context of his flop play, and nothing I expect him to float the flop with improves on the turn and makes him play like that - nothing except air. And I don't have to put much air into his range to make the river call okay.

Imo the turn is the most marginal spot. I agree it was a pretty iffy call on my part on the turn but I really think the river is a call.

I don't see the J as hitting my perceived range that strongly tbh but your overall assessment makes sense to me. But my perceived range is something like AT or AJ+, maybe KQ, and obv JJ+. For arguments sake we'll say AJ+ and JJ+. The J only improves 15 out of 65 of my combos.ahhh really? tbh i just assumed J would hit your percieved range fairly hard, since you didnt give your UTG or overall PFR and i dont play that tight UTG @ 10NL since everyones bad and i can profitably open any2paint UTG @ most tables. if you are super duper tight UTG and your table isnt sqzy(which i assume its not) then i can totally see him calling 57s/97s pre, which imo could play exactly the same as he played it and is just as likely as a boat. gross though bc the 9 OTR gives him a better hand, even w 97 but obv no way he thinks the bare 9 is good. so ye its just the wooooooorst board for a hero call imo

I guess I may have placed a little too much weight onto "this doesn't add up," when it could just be a line that I didn't understand. I think there's still interesting discussion going on so I'll hold off on results for at least another day or so.

Edit: If anything, if I think he's bluffing the turn a lot (or ever turning marginal hands into a bluff) I could just shove over (kind of a huge bet) or raise to blast him out of the pot, and he could potentially fold marginal hands like TT or even Jx hands, as a big turn 3b would almost always look like an overpair, right? (I don't really bluff 3b turns... like ever.)this is what i wouldve done. its pretty lol but it looks so fkn strong and like you said, just blasts them out of the pot and gets thru like 99% of the time cos they just cant call without a monster

but ye, when you posted it here, you obv called and were good i think. but i reaaally doubt thats something for the future playbook. i think vil was just 100% awful and 200% tilted (definitely x% retarded aswell). what did he have?
 
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Matt Vaughan

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but ye, when you posted it here, you obv called and were good i think. but i reaaally doubt thats something for the future playbook. i think vil was just 100% awful and 200% tilted (definitely x% retarded aswell). what did he have?

Lol I agree with most of your analysis... But I don't see him getting into the hand with a weak suited 9x too much.

Anyway, frankly I think he was trying to play me like I was a nitty non-hand reading reg or something. Just raising cause he can and he wants me to go "OMG HE RAISED I HAVE TO GTFO HERE."

But tilt is def a possibility haha - he's a winning player at 10nl so far as I can tell, but my impression is he'd get killed one level up. He had AQo lol. :D
 
bgomez89

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Turn call is pretty bad imo. The raise shows a lot of strength for a few reasons. The ones that stand out to me are:

  1. You're UTG
  2. You double barreled
  3. You say he's playing you like 'a nitty non-hand reading reg or something'

To expand a little more on the last point. If he doesn't think you can read hands/perform analysis, how can he expect you to fold to his turn raise? You obviously have a hand that you like (you raised utg and you fired twice) and, from what you said, he already views you as kind of a nit.

Trying to bluff a nit (i.e. someone who only plays good hands) who can't hand read, seems like suicide to me.

Another reason to fold is because calling OOP puts you in awkward situations and you'll probably end up folding anyway if you don't bink an A or K.
 
Nathan Williams

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Pre and flop are obviously standard. Turn is ok, it's not the best card for you to try and rep but not the worst either. Calling the turn is just spewing money badly here. Even if he doesn't rep much as you say what are you going to do about it? You don't have anything. Most players do not raise turns or rivers at these stakes with nothing as you suggest. The only way you can win the hand with this line is by betting big on the river and hoping he somehow folds. This line looks very bluffy and is frankly ridiculous fancy play syndrome at NL10.
 
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