Originally Posted by BelgoSuisse
villain's flat calling range is going to be small and medium pocket pairs, medium connectors and some Ax. On the river he has loads of trips, boats, some backdoor straights that he may play for value. He also has some air that he wants to bluff with. His air range would include AQ, AT, A7s-, underpairs, 79, T9 for missed straight draws that bink a supposedly worthless pair on the river. And obviously he doesn't turn that range into a bluff 100% of the time.
I think his value range is bigger than his bluff range, and you're not even ahead of his bluff range.
Originally Posted by baudib1
Of course you are going to be good sometimes but you aren't giving enough information to make this a call. "He can pull fast ones" isn't really helpful. You need to reason to suggest his river overbet shove range is heavily weighted to AQ- to make this call and you haven't given that. Something like this would work:
A. Floats paired boards to bluff.
B. He'll raise turn as a bluff.
C. Capable of turning marginal made hands into a bluff but then checks most of them back on river.
D. Would never flat JJ+ pre.
E. Significant history that suggests he knows you are capable of big folds.
The best hands for him to turn into a bluff would be some sort of 8x/QJ/97/T9/A9 hand (Because overbet shoving Jx/8x/9x is essentially turning his hand into a bluff) that blocks a lot of boat/overpair combos and you lose to all of those.
Ty for the vastly improved posts - sorry for the less-than-specific read.
@Belgo: If he was bluffing the turn and binked a pair on the river, I think it's possible he shoves, but there's no chance he insta-shoves. If he plans to shove river as a bluff, and then gets some showdown value, for most players (and this one) that isn't a change to an auto-value-shove without at least some thought.
@baudib: Good point. I'll try to add what info I can, but I'm less-than-good about note-taking. A lot of it is tendencies but I'll address the specifics that you mentioned.
A. He definitely floats some boards with the intention of bluffing later. I wouldn't have said paired boards specifically though.
B. He'll raise turn as a bluff. Yes. Seen it on multiple occasions against various player types.
C. Less sure on this one but from how I've seen him play some hands I'd say he's more likely to take SDV-ish approach to marginal made hands. Not saying impossible for him to turn them into a bluff at times but I've never seen it happen.
D. Obv I can't say he would literally NEVER flat JJ+ pre, but I have no reason to think that he would.
E. He's a (relatively) thinking reg but I have no reason to suspect he takes notes or has any specific read on me that comes from something other than a HUD.
Obviously (or maybe not - I know I'm prob the worst player ITT) I'm not able to consider ALL these factors with a 15 second timer or whatever it is, so a lot of it I have to attribute to what it seemed his play would be consistent with based on my feel of his style. Which isn't the best, so I appreciate the more scientific approach to the hand - thanks guys.