$10 NLHE Full Ring: AK vs nit: fold turn?

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 10/7/4

Stacks:
UTG - UTG ($10.26)
UTG+1 - UTG+1 ($9.80)
MP - MP ($5.59)
MP2 - MP2 ($14.45)
CO - CO ($10.00)
BTN - BTN ($4.64)
SB - SB ($10.87)
BB - Hero ($10.00)

Preflop: ($0.15, 8 players) Hero is BB with K:diamond: A:heart:
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $0.30, 5 folds, Hero calls $0.20

Flop: 8:heart: 2:spade: A:diamond: ($0.65, 2 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 bets $0.40, Hero calls $0.40

Turn: Q:heart: ($1.45, 2 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 bets $0.90, Hero calls $0.90

River: 8:spade: ($3.25, 2 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 bets $2.20, 1 fold, Uncalled bet of $2.20 returned to UTG+1

Total Pot: $3.25

UTG+1 wins $3.10

I decided to just flat pre since nit raised EP. x/c flop seems obvious. On the turn he bets again his range is probably AK, AQ, QQ so since at best i'm flipping w AK should I just fold turn? On river same reasoning applies but also not sure he'd bet AK on all 3 streets so i just gave it up

Why would you fold the river here ?? makes no sense to fold with AK ...

Your flat pre flop is tricky so villain will have no clue about the strength of your hand. He will never put you on AK so he can bet any ace on the river for value so there is a good chance that you have the villain out kicked which is why i don't understand the fold.

Some ambitious players might even raise the river taking some risk to get more value out of the hand if they played it like you did. Folding is just the worse play there.

He has an aggression factor of 4 which means he'll continue betting with a wide part of his tight preflop range.With an aggression factor of 4 I would not be surprised to see AK here and also AJ. He could be triple barreling with JJ or some other bluff since the flop hits his perceived range well. Obviously made hands are playing this way as well.

You shouldn't be too excited about calling the river, but I don't think folding is correct. You should definitely call.

Call pre is fine

Bet/bet/bet-call

If you play this more aggressively you won't be put in these tough spots as often. I think it would help you to be more aggressive post flop.

Tough spot on turn/river.

I think you should not be on that spot if you bet on the flop.

I think we're talked about this before, but you shouldn't be checking to nitty players because they won't be bluffing. He seems like he has decent aggression, but I'm not sure over what sample. You should at the very least be bet / folding the river.

Call down to river. You'd better 3bet preflop

Definitely not folding turn as played. I would be inclined to check raise the flop (fold to 4bet), then bet/ fold the turn. On that flop you only fear AA or 88, and you hold an Ace. You might even get another AK to fold, since most people check raising there tend to have sets.

If you call the turn, then call the river.

tomnovember said:

If you call the turn, then call the river.

Click to expand...

I agree with this if you decide to call the turn the river is a relative brick so we should also call on the river nothing has changed. The Q on the turn means it is just as likely to have AK as AQ.
as high aggression is high he can likely barrel his whole range. Which we can guess is pretty tight UTG +1 but you didn't say exactly what his EP opening is.
we win versus KK AJ JJ TT assuming we put the last 3 hands in his range
Lose to AA AQ QQ. spilt with AK.
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