$10 NLHE Full Ring: AA faces chheck-raise on flop

Villain is unknown. Only 30 hands on him. Should this be a fold?


poker stars $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players - View hand 1106032
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

Hero (BTN): $10.00
SB: $4.00
BB: $11.03
UTG: $9.85
UTG+1: $10.49
MP1: $17.87
MP2: $8.27
CO: $16.44

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is BTN with A :club: A :spade:
UTG calls $0.10, 1 fold, MP1 calls $0.10, 2 folds, Hero raises to $0.50, 2 folds, UTG calls $0.40, MP1 calls $0.40

Flop: ($1.65) J :spade: 6 :diamond: 7 :spade: (3 players)
UTG checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets $1.50, UTG folds, MP1 raises to $5.40, Hero???

Raiser bigger preflop (at least a little bit).

I'd say you're likely flipping against his range 66/77/67 and lots of straight/flush draws. With the $$s already in the pot I call and expect it to be slightly +EV. Having the As helps a little with some BD equity but it cuts down on the number of FDs he can realistically show up with so meh, close one but I don't really think you should be folding overpairs on drawy boards.

WVHillbilly said:

Raiser bigger preflop (at least a little bit).

I'd say you're likely flipping against his range 66/77/67 and lots of straight/flush draws. With the $$s already in the pot I call and expect it to be slightly +EV. Having the As helps a little with some BD equity but it cuts down on the number of FDs he can realistically show up with so meh, close one but I don't really think you should be folding overpairs on drawy boards.

Click to expand...

I agree, also the check-raise is big which is a little less likely from a set I would think. 10nl usually a set would raise to a standard 3x or somewhere around there but unknown so who knows, he might be trying to charge flush draws or something.

A bit nasty but I can't fold.

Melkor said:

I agree, also the check-raise is big which is a little less likely from a set I would think. 10nl usually a set would raise to a standard 3x or somewhere around there but unknown so who knows, he might be trying to charge flush draws or something.

A bit nasty but I can't fold.

Click to expand...

u can't rule out a set because u think his c/r is bigger than normal....especially with an unknown villain

Aren't you using a HUD of any kind? With having 30 hands on him you should start to get an idea of his style of play. His flop aggression is completely ridiculous and looks like a maniac's style of play, I'd shove. Even in most normal cases with really loose aggressive players they won't raise that much when they have you beat.

WSOP13 said:

u can't rule out a set because u think his c/r is bigger than normal....especially with an unknown villain

Click to expand...

He didn't rule out a set, just said that the c/r size might be less indicative of a set. 66/77 are still clearly in his range.

Dont call, shove.

If we are behind we wont be folding to his river bet.

If we are ahead, we are ahead of AJ and a couple of big draws.

Given the size of the pot a shove is +EV

Personally I think we have less than 40% equity but as long as we have over 30% the shove is fine.

the 67J board means (if he is very agressive) he could be doing this with combo draws (straight + flush)

Sets make sense here, everyone at 10NL fears FDs when the have a set so the big raise size could easily be a set.

As we hold the Ace he cant be doing this with nut FDs (although I doubt he would anyway) most people are calling these.

So the range I give him is simply AJo (so as to not include all AJ combos)

AJo 66 77 67 89s 9Ts 45s BUT I would take out say the 9Ts just to reflect that people dont nessicarilly play all of their range in the same way.

What I am trying to achieve is to give him a fairly nutty range and then to see if we have enough equity against that range. We do.

Then if he bluffs / spews our equity increases further but we arent relying on that equity to make the shove. (but its nice to know that as a minimum we have a bit more than 35% equity.

If he is very passive then its basically a set and we should fold.

TorreyB said:

Aren't you using a HUD of any kind? With having 30 hands on him you should start to get an idea of his style of play. His flop aggression is completely ridiculous and looks like a maniac's style of play, I'd shove. Even in most normal cases with really loose aggressive players they won't raise that much when they have you beat.

Click to expand...

A lot of people (especially passive players) are terrified of Fd's.

We arent expecting bet sizes to make perfect sense at 10NL

Stu_Ungar said:

Dont call, shove.

Click to expand...

Yeah this, I don't think I said it but I did mean it.

BTW there are still a lot of people I could find a fold with this.

Whats making me shove is the presence of the big combo draws which people often play like the nuts on the flop.

There are players who are still too passive to raise these but medium agrro types should still be raising them.

Thanks for your replies. I did what you said and shoved thinking it was close between sets and whatever else. Didn't think people would do that with draws. He turned over pocket sixes which made me think on a board like that there isn't much else he would have and I made a bad play...

Yeah, you're probably going to see sets/67 here more than half the time but with the odds you're getting it's the other 40 - 45% of the time that makes shoving profitable. Your play was fine imo.

ryanmccauley211 said:

Thanks for your replies. I did what you said and shoved thinking it was close between sets and whatever else. Didn't think people would do that with draws. He turned over pocket sixes which made me think on a board like that there isn't much else he would have and I made a bad play...

Click to expand...

Depends on how passive he is.

The combo draws give you a bit more equity. I figured you for about 35% in this hand... which makes it slightly +EV

Slightly +EV means you will still lose a lot.

You guys think folding is fine here too then with it being so close?

No.

ryanmccauley211 said:

You guys think folding is fine here too then with it being so close?

Click to expand...

There isnt much in it.

All depends on his aggression level.

If you think he raises AJ here shove.

You think he raises AJ then he must raise his combo draws, shove.

You think he is too passive to raise AJ then its a fold.

Is this the first flop you have seen him raise? or has he raised one or two?

Is he a calling station?

Even if he dosent raise AJ often you arent massively behind. If its possible he could decide to make this the one and only time he bluffs in the session then you move ahead.

The thing to remember is this.

This is a marginal situation.

Everyone tries to over-analyse marginal situations.

By definition they are neither very profitable or very unprofitable in the long-run.

Whatever you do in a marginal spot will have very little effect on your overall winrate.

If you are ahead, you are slightly ahead, if you are behind you are slightly behind.. it all averages out to zero no matter what you do!

Stu_Ungar said:

The thing to remember is this.

This is a marginal situation.

Everyone tries to over-analyse marginal situations.

Click to expand...

Are you quoting from Tommy Angelo?

ComplexPlaya said:

Are you quoting from Tommy Angelo?

Click to expand...

I wasnt, but its the kind of thing he would say!