$10 NLHE Full Ring: 16nl, bluff river shove with the Ad vs unknown

just wanted opinions, flop call is pretty bad but planned on taking it away/raising a lot of turns since his donking range is weak.. (pairs + gutters/ airballs/pure gutters/2nd pair etc) he doesn't donk out with FD's often enough imo.

my range is flushes/set/good 2 pair hands here vs thinking players but that doesn't matter as much since the focus is on his range.

- 1/4 pot on turn indicates weakness + scared of flush
- we have Ad so he never has the nuts
- a fish is always betting more on the river with the stronger part of his range which makes this a blocker bet in my eyes

wish we could have more behind for more FE but I still think it gets through enough.

pokerstars - $0.16 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3: http://www.pokertracker.com

CO: $15.76
BTN: $28.46
SB: $52.77
BB: $18.39
UTG: $18.51
UTG+1: $32.41
MP: $18.14
MP+1: $7.40
Hero (LP): $16.00

SB posts SB $0.08, BB posts BB $0.16

Pre Flop: ($0.24) Hero has Qh Ad

fold, UTG+1 calls $0.16, fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.64, fold, fold, SB calls $0.56, fold, UTG+1 calls $0.48

Flop: ($2.08, 3 players) 7c 3d 4d
SB checks, UTG+1 bets $0.96, Hero calls $0.96, fold

Turn: ($4.00, 2 players) 9d
UTG+1 bets $0.96, Hero raises to $2.40, UTG+1 calls $1.44

River: ($8.80, 2 players) 8c
UTG+1 bets $3.84, Hero raises to $12.00 and is all-in

...

Stats on villain. Convert your hand.

I like it vs. the right person. I apologize/take responsibility if he called.

I think if he's going to fold at any point in that hand its either on the turn when you raise, or he's c/f ing the river after calling the turn. I can't see him b/f'ing that.

Iso bigger pre, but as played I would have liked to raise the turn too as his 96c bet does look weak, but when he calls the raise anyways I dont think he's going away, number 1 fish leak at the micros is to call it off when they shouldn't

Turn: I like the raise with the scare card + weak bet + backdoor equity. I am not completely sold on your sizing though, just in case you need to value bet the river. I prefer something like $4, because you are not on a stone cold bluff.

River: Once villain leads he is never getting away from the hand. His bet sizing and action makes me think he is a fish so I doubt he is hand reading your nut blocker. Yes you are repping strength, but no, this is just not working often enough to be profitable. I think if checked to on the river you can squeeze out a 30-40% sucker bet bluff.

Deco, I wrote unknown because I have no stats.. pokertracker says 25/25 over 4 hands so thats hardly helpful.

thanks for the input guys, will wait until I wake up properly to answer in full.. keep em coming!

Campbell92 said:

Deco, I wrote unknown because I have no stats..

Click to expand...

Ye sorry I never read the title of threads when looking for information on villains.

I fold the flop, I'd still fold HU but defo folding with someone behind me. Limp calling ranges are weak, generally a mixture of low cards, drawing hands and mid to low pocket pairs. Thing is that range hits a flop like this decently and we've no reason to believe villain is a) bluffing and b) Not double barrelling the turn.

When he is bluffing he's likely got pretty good equity as well. Just let it go.

As played we fold the river, villain may be an unknown but once he open limps we can be pretty sure he's a fish. Fish will have lots of suited cards that made flushes on the turn and they will be more likely to call the river without a flush (plenty of two pairs/straights out there that will donk/call). Bluffing fishes is generally a bit shite.

never read your post deco..

maybe i'm the only one who thinks he can have super weak hands here?

imo he doesn't donk FD's..

just pairs, sets maybe.

i'm repping the flush way more than he is and its so blatantly obv what I have he might even fold weak 2 pairs here.

but yeah i'm going round in circles, my thought process is up top