$10 NLHE Full Ring: 10NL Rush, JJ on Q high board vs Nit

Full Tilt - $0.10 NL RUSH - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

MP: $10.00
MP+1: $15.38
LP: $2.14
Hero (CO): $10.20
BTN: $12.02
SB: $5.80
BB: $14.16
UTG: $4.25
UTG+1: $10.50

SB posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero has J:diamond: J:heart:

fold, UTG+1 raises to $0.35, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls $0.35, fold, SB calls $0.30, fold

Flop: ($1.15, 3 players) 2:club: Q:diamond: 6:heart:
SB checks, UTG+1 bets $0.90, Hero calls $0.90, fold

Turn: ($2.95, 2 players) 6:spade:
UTG+1 checks, Hero checks

River: ($2.95, 2 players) T:spade:
UTG+1 bets $1.40, Hero calls $1.40


Villain was a 9/7 over a good sample, had a cbet of 56 and therefore I thought the flop was so dry I was likely to be ahead of his cbetting range. I checked back on the turn and river for pot control and to possibly induce from some weaker PPs and Ahigh type hands.

But does a 9/7 ever bet check bet with anything less than a queen? Something I honestly didn't consider when I played out the hand.

MaxiRodriguez said:

Villain was a 9/7 over a good sample, had a cbet of 56 and therefore I thought the flop was so dry I was likely to be ahead of his cbetting range.

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56% c-bet is low.

MaxiRodriguez said:

But does a 9/7 ever bet check bet with anything less than a queen? Something I honestly didn't consider when I played out the hand.

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Nope, I really doubt he's v-betting worse, so you need him to be bluffing. Nits typically aren't the bluffy type.

I think the interesting decision here is what to do preflop.

56% is pretty low, but surely if your going to be pretty selective in which flops to cbet surely this is one? On the other hand there are 3 of us in the pot so...

I flatted here as Villain's fold to 3bet was pretty high high I believe it was 89. I thought I could extract more value flatting in position. Although given how tight he's playing and the fact he's UTG+1, I guess his range is AJ+ 99+ (maybe all PPs but I doubt it). The only thing I could hope for would be for him to have AJ and flop a J, very unlikely or possibly TT/99 on a low flop?

If I 3bet I fold out everything I can beat and I'm now facing a hand which most likely dominates me.

Lol contradictions.

c9h13no3 said:

I think the interesting decision here is what to do preflop.

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Ya, vs a 9/7 I would check a couple stats to make my decision here.

EP PRF% and ATS. If he has a high ATS that would mean that a lot of his 7% PFR are steals in LP. This also means that his EP openings are a way tighter range. Add in the actual PFR% in EP stat and you can make an easeir decision.


If hes ridic tight in EP and you flat call PF you're essentialy set mining with JJ.

MaxiRodriguez said:

56% is pretty low, but surely if your going to be pretty selective in which flops to cbet surely this is one? On the other hand there are 3 of us in the pot so...

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56% is very low considering he's a 9/7 so he's always got something worth cbetting on virtually any board.

brank said:

If hes ridic tight in EP and you flat call PF you're essentialy set mining with JJ.

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Nothing wrong with that.

I am being persuaded that he's gonna have a hand always on that flop with his c-bet but I'm notorious for floating with that type of hand and that flop.

We need to know exactly how tight he is up front and if he's playing 88/99/TT, if not we have to fold flop. If they're in his range then I see myself playing the flop/turn exactly the same.

River is tricky but I'm calling if I played it that way for the reasons above. He's so turning up with TT tho lol.

Edit: Changed my mind, fold river, we're basically hoping he has 88/99/ (if they're in his pre-flop range) or AK and not TT/QQ/KK/AQ. I'm gonna stove it.

Nom nom, lots of stats:

Just generic pre-flop range including some middle PP's:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 56.206% 57.29% 00.22% 42182331 163678.50 { JdJh }
Hand 1: 43.794% 44.59% 00.22% 32831688 163678.50 { 88+, AQs+, KQs, AQo+ }

Flop, if he bets them all:

Board: 2c Qd 6h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 48.042% 47.27% 00.77% 30420 495.00 { JdJh }
Hand 1: 51.958% 51.19% 00.77% 32940 495.00 { 88+, AQs+, KQs, AQo+ }

Turn:

Board: 2c Qd 6h 6s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 50.350% 49.58% 00.77% 1418 22.00 { JdJh }
Hand 1: 49.650% 48.88% 00.77% 1398 22.00 { 88+, AQs+, KQs, AQo+ }

River:

Board: 2c Qd 6h 6s Ts
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 45.968% 45.16% 00.81% 28 0.50 { JdJh }
Hand 1: 54.032% 53.23% 00.81% 33 0.50 { 88+, AQs+, KQs, AQo+ }

Tighter range:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 43.540% 42.47% 01.07% 39993426 1010779.00 { JdJh }
Hand 1: 56.460% 55.39% 01.07% 52161736 1010779.00 { JJ+, AQs+, KQs, AQo+ }

Flop for tighter range (both c-betting and pre-flop range):

Board: 2c Qd 6h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 31.354% 30.29% 01.06% 14094 495.00 { JdJh }
Hand 1: 68.646% 67.58% 01.06% 31446 495.00 { JJ+, AQs+, KQs, AQo+ }

Turn:

Board: 2c Qd 6h 6s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 33.075% 32.01% 01.06% 662 22.00 { JdJh }
Hand 1: 66.925% 65.86% 01.06% 1362 22.00 { JJ+, AQs+, KQs, AQo+
Board: 2c Qd 6h 6s Ts
Dead:

River:

Board: 2c Qd 6h 6s Ts
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 35.106% 34.04% 01.06% 16 0.50 { JdJh }
Hand 1: 64.894% 63.83% 01.06% 30 0.50 { JJ+, AQs+, KQs, AQo+ }


So erm, fold?

I think you should do this next time haha

No, not really anything wrong with set mining JJ as long as you remember thats how your goin to play them, essentially playin them like 22. Even if you flop an OESD with them you're not that happy vs this range with all the reverse implied odds.

I think I'd float one street with JJ on a Q-high board against anyone, but the river is a fold against this nit, he totally has TT and that gives you an idea of the range of his bluffs on this board.

Thanks for all the advice guys.

He had AQ, I wasn't paying 100% attention and a few classic rush 2 outers had just hit me so was slightly tilted and the only thought than ran through my mind on the river was if he had a Q he's barrelling the turn. Obvs not lol.