$10 NLHE Full Ring: $10nl NLHE FR: Value betting the nuts, until they aren't and villain overbets

RoyalFish

RoyalFish

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Jan 14, 2009
Total posts
240
Chips
0
$10 NL HE Full Ring: $10nl NLHE FR: Value betting the nuts, until they aren't and villain overbets

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 70/20/43

Full Tilt, $0.05/$0.10 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

MP3: $2.56 (25.6 bb)
CO: $6.31 (63.1 bb)
RoyalFish (BTN): $19.23 (192.3 bb)
SB: $9.80 (98 bb)
BB: $10 (100 bb)
UTG+1: $2.24 (22.4 bb)
UTG+2: $13.60 (136 bb)
MP1: $11.28 (112.8 bb)
MP2: $22.50 (225 bb)

Pre-Flop: RoyalFish is BTN with 6
spade.gif
7
spade.gif

UTG+1 calls $0.10, UTG+2 calls $0.10, MP1 folds, MP2 calls $0.10, MP3 folds, CO calls $0.10, RoyalFish calls $0.10, SB folds, BB checks

Flop: ($0.65) 4
club.gif
5
heart.gif
3
diamond.gif
(6 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 checks, MP2 checks, CO checks, RoyalFish bets $0.35, BB folds, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 calls $0.35, MP2 folds, CO calls $0.35

Turn: ($1.70) T
club.gif
(3 players)
UTG+2 checks, CO checks, RoyalFish bets $0.60, UTG+2 calls $0.60, CO folds

River: ($2.90) 7
club.gif
(2 players)
UTG+2 bets $5.25, RoyalFish wonders WTF to do now?!?

Villain was 70/20/43, but only over 14 hands, so I didn't give that a huge amount of credit, but I flopped the nuts and wanted to milk it. Should I have bet more on the turn? If villain has clubs, I invited him to stick around, but it seemed goofy unless he happened to have something else that justified sticking around, and that something else happened to be clubs.
 
slycbnew

slycbnew

Cardschat Elite
Silver Level
Joined
Aug 8, 2008
Total posts
2,876
Chips
0
Yeah, I bet the turn larger - 1/2 psb, even 2/3, won't discourage a flush draw at 10nl, and we make more when he has to c/f river...

I don't see much more than the flush that bets the river, though the turn bet is so small it might be something else... don't think it's worth calling though.
 
thepokerkid123

thepokerkid123

Visionary
Silver Level
Joined
Jul 31, 2009
Total posts
917
Chips
0
Raise pre-flop unless your opponents are calling stations, even then I don't hate raising but can find a call.

I bet bigger on this flop, you know someone has the inside straight draw and at least two overcards (if not overcard and a pair), plus all pocket pairs are stacking off (except from regs, but even they'll pay you well). So anyway, I bet like 50-65c here.

Turn. I bet the pot because:
Occasionally someone will have caught the T. Pocket pairs still think they're good. A lot of hands just picked up a flush draw. There's still the straight draw + overcards hands around.

River... this is a really ugly spot, I expect this is a leak of mine but I fold (a lot) to overbets and I fold here. Don't take that as solid advice though.


Yes, I just made a response that answered everything you didn't want answered and didn't answer the one question you actually had. What's wrong with that? :)
 
Last edited:
WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Nov 7, 2007
Total posts
22,973
Chips
0
Bet bigger on flop and turn. Guess I'm much more of a station that the guys above me but I call. I think you split fairly often, see the occasional flush of course, but you'll also see all kinds of random stuff from a player of the "caliber". If you are beat just consider it a loan that he'll pay back with interest in a few hands.
 
B

baudib1

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Dec 2, 2008
Total posts
6,635
Chips
0
Folding the river, we have bad pot odds in hoping for a chop. Unless you've seen villain overbet as a bluff on this kind of board with say, two pair or a set, you can't really call this.
 
KardKlub

KardKlub

Visionary
Silver Level
Joined
Dec 11, 2008
Total posts
527
Chips
0
you bet the flop and turn, i don't see why he would lead out here with the nuts, Im probably calling and he'll show me AK
 
RoyalFish

RoyalFish

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Jan 14, 2009
Total posts
240
Chips
0
Ok, this one has been out there for a few days now, so, the rest of the story.

Thanks everyone for your input. I do certainly agree, bigger bet on the turn. If I had it to play over, I'd happily take it down there and never see a river, or maybe just have bet big enough on the turn that if the scare card river hits I have no choice but to call. I know I'm ahead on the turn. Every penny I get in on the flop and turn is money in good, no matter how the hand ends.

The flop, I felt ok with. It's a small bet, but I wanted a call. Hell, I wanted everyone to call and was disappointed most of them folded. I was thinking that if anything scary fell on the turn, I'd just bet big enough that draws couldn't profitably call. If the board paired, I'd be in an awkward spot as trips suddently become a boat and I'm crushed. I confess I think I just didn't consider that nuance in the moment. And, of course, when the 2nd club hit making flush draws possible, I didn't bet big like I intended.

I tanked for an age on the river, the clicked call just as time was running out, honestly figuring he was better than 50% to have the flush, but so puzzled by the action that, in combination with the possibility he was bluffing, I was willing to pay something to be able to analyze this line later. I'm thinking if *I* had the flush, I'd bet something that would get a call, not a massive overbet.

He had A8 offsuit. A clean miss all the way to the river.

I would not say this is necessarily a +EV call, I think i just lucked out and caught a bluff. I don't know how often overbets on the river signify weak holdings, though sooner or later I'll query the old DB to see what people tend to have in this situation. Something like this happened yesterday, but with a villain with less nutso stats and on a board that was drawy all the way. I let that one go. I also had a weaker hand myself, so it was a lot more plausible I was beat.

Thanks, everyone. I really do appreciate your insights.

RF
 
Related Betting Guides: CA Betting - AU Betting - UK Betting - SportsBetting Poker - BetStars
Top