Ok, this one has been out there for a few days now, so, the rest of the story.
Thanks everyone for your input. I do certainly agree, bigger bet on the turn. If I had it to play over, I'd happily take it down there and never see a river, or maybe just have bet big enough on the turn that if the scare card river hits I have no choice but to call. I know I'm ahead on the turn. Every penny I get in on the flop and turn is money in good, no matter how the hand ends.
The flop, I felt ok with. It's a small bet, but I wanted a call. Hell, I wanted everyone to call and was disappointed most of them folded. I was thinking that if anything scary fell on the turn, I'd just bet big enough that draws couldn't profitably call. If the board paired, I'd be in an awkward spot as trips suddently become a boat and I'm crushed. I confess I think I just didn't consider that nuance in the moment. And, of course, when the 2nd club hit making flush draws possible, I didn't bet big like I intended.
I tanked for an age on the river, the clicked call just as time was running out, honestly figuring he was better than 50% to have the flush, but so puzzled by the action that, in combination with the possibility he was bluffing
, I was willing to pay something to be able to analyze this line later. I'm thinking if *I* had the flush, I'd bet something that would get a call, not a massive overbet.
He had A8 offsuit. A clean miss all the way to the river.
I would not say this is necessarily a +EV call, I think i just lucked out and caught a bluff. I don't know how often overbets on the river signify weak holdings, though sooner or later I'll query the old DB to see what people tend to have in this situation. Something like this happened yesterday, but with a villain with less nutso stats and on a board that was drawy all the way. I let that one go. I also had a weaker hand myself, so it was a lot more plausible I was beat.
Thanks, everyone. I really do appreciate your insights.