$10 NLHE 6-max: Whats your river play?

IPlay

IPlay

Bum hunts 25NL
Silver Level
Joined
Oct 7, 2013
Total posts
2,593
Chips
0
Villain has 72AF over a decent sample size and is pretty splishy splashy

Winning Poker Network (Yatahay) - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (UTG): $25.02
MP: $14.56 (VPIP: 21.48, PFR: 18.51, 3Bet Preflop: 10.13, hands: 402)
CO: $11.88 (VPIP: 40.00, PFR: 15.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 21)
BTN: $10.65 (VPIP: 21.98, PFR: 17.47, 3Bet Preflop: 6.50, Hands: 743)
SB: $14.01 (VPIP: 21.04, PFR: 18.01, 3Bet Preflop: 6.75, Hands: 2,338)
BB: $5.82 (VPIP: 21.99, PFR: 17.43, 3Bet Preflop: 10.00, Hands: 249)

SB posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.15) Hero has J:spade: J:club:

Hero raises to $0.32, MP calls $0.32, fold, fold, fold, fold

Flop: ($0.79, 2 players) Q:club: T:heart: 7:spade:
Hero checks, MP bets $0.60, Hero calls $0.60

Turn: ($1.99, 2 players) J:diamond:
Hero checks, MP bets $1.80, Hero calls $1.80

River: ($5.59, 2 players) 4:club:
Hero ???
 
Keith_MM

Keith_MM

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Dec 13, 2013
Total posts
1,334
Awards
1
Chips
3
hmmm i'm tossing up between betting $2 or check calling. disadvantage of leading $2 is that with 89 in his range he could reraise , discounting AK ,QQ as with his 3bet stats he'd be 3betting AK QQ all the time preflop , although AK could well be in our range. We have trouble representing QQ as we'd have value bet the flop

we could check shove as a bluff and represent AK and still have equity against his range which will have hands like 77 TT AQ KQ J9 KJ k9. not sure he calls a check shove with much of his range maybe TT and maybe only get called by k9 78 and the rest folds so looks like check shoving is going to be -ev compared to check calling as he has a lot more combos (24:3)that beat us than we beat that will call a check shove.

check calling keeps in all the combos that we beat and with his aggression factor he's likely to bet them . if we lead the river , i don't see that he's calling with many of the hands that we beat and he's likely to shove with hands that beat us
 
Top