This is a discussion on $10 NLHE 6-max: Whats your river play? within the online poker forums, in the Cash Game Hand Analysis section; Villain has 72AF over a decent sample size and is pretty splishy splashy
Winning Poker Network (Yatahay) - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6
hmmm i'm tossing up between betting $2 or check calling. disadvantage of leading $2 is that with 89 in his range he could reraise , discounting AK ,QQ as with his 3bet stats he'd be 3betting AK QQ all the time preflop , although AK could well be in our range. We have trouble representing QQ as we'd have value bet the flop
we could check shove as a bluff and represent AK and still have equity against his range which will have hands like 77 TT AQ KQ J9 KJ k9. not sure he calls a check shove with much of his range maybe TT and maybe only get called by k9 78 and the rest folds so looks like check shoving is going to be -ev compared to check calling as he has a lot more combos (24:3)that beat us than we beat that will call a check shove.
check calling keeps in all the combos that we beat and with his aggression factor he's likely to bet them . if we lead the river , i don't see that he's calling with many of the hands that we beat and he's likely to shove with hands that beat us