$10 NLHE 6-max: Villain takes X/C flop and donk turn line, how do we proceed?

S

ScottishMatt

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poker stars $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 2231947
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

Hero (BTN): $10.39
SB: $6.16
BB: $7.30
UTG: $8.71
MP: $8.51
CO: $16.96

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is BTN with T
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K
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UTG calls $0.10, 2 folds, Hero raises to $0.40, 1 fold, BB calls $0.30, UTG calls $0.30

Flop: ($1.25) 6
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5
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T
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(3 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets $0.90, BB calls $0.90, UTG folds

Turn: ($3.05) 2
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(2 players)
BB bets $1, Hero calls $1

River: ($5.05) Q
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(2 players)
BB bets $2.40, Hero folds

Villain is 20/12 over 100 hands. The only sort of hand I could put him on for bet sizing on the turn and value betting the river was JJ or a flush draw that hit the Q. I don't think he value bets JT on the river and I can't see him bluffing too much here. Really confused by his line, that + I have been running bad just makes me not want to make a speculative turn raise without really knowing what I'm raising to accomplish. Any tips on how to assign a range here based on the weird line?
 
AlfieAA

AlfieAA

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ScottishMatt said:
Poker Stars $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 2231947
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

Hero (BTN): $10.39
SB: $6.16
BB: $7.30
UTG: $8.71
MP: $8.51
CO: $16.96

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is BTN with T
spade.gif
K
heart.gif

UTG calls $0.10, 2 folds, Hero raises to $0.40, 1 fold, BB calls $0.30, UTG calls $0.30

Flop: ($1.25) 6
heart.gif
5
heart.gif
T
club.gif
(3 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets $0.90, BB calls $0.90, UTG folds

Turn: ($3.05) 2
diamond.gif
(2 players)
BB bets $1, Hero calls $1

River: ($5.05) Q
club.gif
(2 players)
BB bets $2.40, Hero folds

Villain is 20/12 over 100 hands. The only sort of hand I could put him on for bet sizing on the turn and value betting the river was JJ or a flush draw that hit the Q. I don't think he value bets JT on the river and I can't see him bluffing too much here. Really confused by his line, that + I have been running bad just makes me not want to make a speculative turn raise without really knowing what I'm raising to accomplish. Any tips on how to assign a range here based on the weird line?
Click to expand...

TQ,JQ,KQ is what im thinking, but yeah weird line, i think he would prob 3bet/4bet call JJ...prob go with TQ if i was picking one hand to put him on..........not that you would 4bet TK lol
 
Yoshimiii

Yoshimiii

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I would expect villain to show up with a set here so often, this line is taken by villains that don't care if you raise them (or would like you to) and don't want to scare you away by check-raising. TQ is also very possible.

Good fold. He never takes this line with worse.
 
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ScottishMatt

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I don't think villain is going to 3-bet JJ OOP to my large iso here Alfie. Not when there is a good chance that UTG fish will call along and give him better odds for setmining.

As for him having a set, I did include that in a turn range and that is one of the primary reasons I didn't want to raise him. The tiny turn bet is just so weird for a set to make. Hence why I put some flushes in there as well. Are we happy to flat turn as we can be ahead some time? Seems absurd to fold there.
 
Yoshimiii

Yoshimiii

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ScottishMatt said:
I don't think villain is going to 3-bet JJ OOP to my large iso here Alfie. Not when there is a good chance that UTG fish will call along and give him better odds for setmining.

As for him having a set, I did include that in a turn range and that is one of the primary reasons I didn't want to raise him. The tiny turn bet is just so weird for a set to make. Hence why I put some flushes in there as well. Are we happy to flat turn as we can be ahead some time? Seems absurd to fold there.
Click to expand...

Could be an inducing bet, wanting you to raise him, also most bad villains bet small with made hands as they want you to call them desperately and not be scared away.

I would also call turn, can't fold for that price until I get more info on villain.

Once he bets the river I think you can discard all flush draws, especially for the price he's giving you. I don't see many villains take this line with a draw, and if they do then props to them, they deserve my cash :).
 
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ScottishMatt

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I was thinking along the exact same lines Yoshi. Glad to know I played this as best as possible.
 
Matt Vaughan

Matt Vaughan

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The turn is either a bet to induce or (imo more likely) a blocking bet with a flush draw. So he either has a set and is afraid you will stop betting, or he had a FD on the turn that hit top pair on the river that he is value betting now (he's never bluffing the river with missed FD's that don't catch the Q imo). I sigh-fold.

On the turn I might put in a small raise, to like $2.50. It's a bit awkward because I'm not 100% sure he continues with FD's, but he will snap-ship sets I think. The $ we get from picking up the pot and the EV from when he continues one more street with FD's is probably enough to make a raise the best play.
 
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