$10 NLHE 6-max: Villain c/r's river, want to call

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 31/19/3

poker stars $0.08/$0.16 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players - View hand 1650979
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BTN: $16.00
SB: $20.25
BB: $16.00
UTG: $19.23
Hero (CO): $19.43

Pre Flop: ($0.24) Hero is CO with 8 :club: 9 :club:
1 fold, Hero raises to $0.64, 1 fold, SB calls $0.56, 1 fold

Flop: ($1.44) T :club: 6 :spade: J :heart: (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.96, SB calls $0.96

Turn: ($3.36) J :spade: (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $2.08, SB calls $2.08

River: ($7.52) Q :diamond: (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $4, SB raises to $10

So, been trying to think through each hand I play this morning, will detail my thoughts here.

Flop : Betting because we have PE w/ the oesd and he folds to cbets 50% too so we have some FE as well.

Turn : I think our FE goes up a bit here as the J's not a bad card for us, making it more likely that he doesnt have one and might fold. He also folds to 65% of turn cbets so a bit more likely to get a fold there too.

River : Draw comes in and when checked to I now think there's value to be had from any Jx that he might have had, maybe AQ that was calling for a gutshot. He then c/r's us and I look at his stats, AF of 3, river Agg of 7 and the fact that we're getting 3.5-1 on our call makes me want to call here.

Would like to hear some other thoughts on this.

Call, raising sucks ldo.

Cool,

Can't edit now, but for others that read this, I'd like some comments on the thought process as well if poss, like thinking this much is new to me and I wanna make sure what i'm thinking makes sense lol

If I took villians line it would always be for value (his raise size looks particularly like its for value). Mostly FH's. If you think he does this with Jx then i'd call, but I think your beat here so much.

Flop bet/reasoning is sound. I make it a little bigger for that little bit more fold equity and a bigger pot for when we hit but that's more my personal preference than necessity.

orangepeeleo said:

Turn : I think our FE goes up a bit here as the J's not a bad card for us, making it more likely that he doesnt have one and might fold.

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The J is a terrible card for us. In terms of fold equity the board hasn't devalued his hands much. Jx/Tx/KQ are going nowere. He may have Jx less often now but that doesn't really mean we're getting more folds and when he does have Jx we may face a checkraise.

That and we are now drawing to a much weaker hand than before. When a Q lands we're no longer auto-stacking QJ/JT/QQ/JJ/66/TT. They stack us! Are implied odds have shrunk dismally.

The turn I probabaly still bet. A check back isn't bad either, may actually be better and I'm just spewy.

The river, chances are we're ****ed.
66/TT/JJ/JT/QJ = 19combos that checkraise all day
AJ/KJ = 16combos that may just call.
89 = 9combos we split

Even if we throw in J9 for 24combos the negation from the times when villain flats will set us back to below 16 combos. We have the equity to call, but not to 3bet.

Paired boards are even more deadly for straights than they are flushes as in order to hit our straight we need a c-ordinated board.
JJTQ will hold many more full houses than JJs2s7s because people are more likely to play JT/QJ than they are J2/J7

Deco said:

The J is a terrible card for us.

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I had the exact same thought, so I wouldn't always barrel this turn.

As for the river, we are usually not ahead when we get c/r. So without a specific read you should probably be making a good fold. I think you should defo bet river though, just make it a b/f.

I fold by default.

Any river raise regardless of anything you will find to be almost always a very strong hand.

dooydoo said:

I fold by default.

Any river raise regardless of anything you will find to be almost always a very strong hand.

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I strongly disagree with you. Maybe not necessarily on this hand, but definitely in the long run.

absoluthamm said:

I strongly disagree with you. Maybe not necessarily on this hand, but definitely in the long run.

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In my experience (which is only in the micros so far) a river c/r or reraise is usually a strong hand, especially when we've bet bet bet. The amount of times I've called with something that doesn't beat what they're repping and I'm ahead, well, they are few and far between.

thanks for the comments,

I called, for 2 main reasons

The price being offered us on the call, combined with his proven aggresion.

Was looking more for an analysis of my thought process in general, looks like it was OK in the main lol

He had 99 btw, hero call ftw