re: Poker & $10 NLHE 6-max: Villain c/r's river, want to call
Flop bet/reasoning is sound. I make it a little bigger for that little bit more fold equity and a bigger pot for when we hit but that's more my personal preference than necessity.
Originally Posted by orangepeeleo
Turn : I think our FE goes up a bit here as the J's not a bad card for us, making it more likely that he doesnt have one and might fold.
The J is a terrible card for us. In terms of fold equity the board hasn't devalued his hands much. Jx/Tx/KQ are going nowere. He may have Jx less often now but that doesn't really mean we're getting more folds and when he does have Jx we may face a checkraise.
That and we are now drawing to a much weaker hand than before. When a Q lands we're no longer auto-stacking QJ/JT/QQ/JJ/66/TT. They stack us! Are implied odds
have shrunk dismally.
The turn I probabaly still bet. A check back isn't bad either, may actually be better and I'm just spewy.
The river, chances are we're ****ed.
66/TT/JJ/JT/QJ = 19combos that checkraise all day
AJ/KJ = 16combos that may just call.
89 = 9combos we split
Even if we throw in J9 for 24combos the negation from the times when villain flats will set us back to below 16 combos. We have the equity to call, but not to 3bet.
Paired boards are even more deadly for straights than they are flushes as in order to hit our straight we need a c-ordinated board.
JJTQ will hold many more full houses than JJs2s7s because people are more likely to play JT/QJ than they are J2/J7