€10 NLHE 6-max: Valueshove river w/ overpair on this dry board? vs unknown

had only done about 2 orbits at the table before this hand, consequently dont have much info for villain. he was play at 32/28 at the time but obv thats not accurate due to sample so im not relying on that to mean hes a bad.
the hand before id seem him check back a flop after 3bing, then call a turn and river bet by someone else w/ AK high and he was good... not sure if that was read he had on the other player or what, but it made me think hes a bit of a station- which i had in mind during this hand.

pokerstars Hand #83490514129: Hold'em No Limit (€0.05/€0.10 EUR) - 2012/07/18 5:11:08 ET
Table 'Herget II' 6-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 2: DonQFlamingo (€8.08 in chips)
Seat 3: agyque (€15.60 in chips)
Seat 4: jchoop (€10 in chips)
Seat 5: Kullakaevaja (€7 in chips)
Seat 6: VADE00 (€26.86 in chips)
DonQFlamingo: posts small blind €0.05
agyque: posts big blind €0.10

*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to jchoop [Kd Kc]
jchoop: raises €0.30 to €0.40
Kullakaevaja: folds
VADE00: calls €0.40
DonQFlamingo: calls €0.35
agyque: folds

*** FLOP *** [9c 7d Th]
DonQFlamingo: checks
jchoop: bets €0.90
VADE00: calls €0.90
DonQFlamingo: folds

*** TURN *** [9c 7d Th] [2s]
DonQFlamingo leaves the table
jchoop: bets €2.10
VADE00: calls €2.10

*** RIVER *** [9c 7d Th 2s] [4d]
jchoop: ship it?

Bigger on the flop & turn.

Btw, this board is not dry at all. Your opponent is going to have a ton of pair+draw, and oesd hands. Since villain has shown the ability to bluff catch, I'm okay sticking the whole stack in there. But the vast majority of his hands are going to be JT, 98, 88 type stuff that might not want to play a pot that big. So I'd lean more towards a half pot bet against unknowns.

I like bigger bets on flop and turn, like said, tons of pair and gutshots, some worse overpairs, not much to be scared about the way action has went either. Ship river.

yeah, bet sizing isn't perfect.

On the flop, if you want to set up a shove on the river, you need to multiply the $1.30 pot by 15.75, which means the pot should grow by the cubic root of that on each street, i.e. 2.5. Assuming it goes heads up from flop to river, that means firing 75% of pot on each street.

Make that $1 / $2.5 / $6.1

That way, by the river the shove is $6.1 into a $8.3 pot, which is better than the $6.6 into a $7.3 that you have.

And that's only if you want to have the same relative bet size on each street. There are pretty decent arguments to bet bigger on earlier streets and smaller on later ones.

Uh yeah.... cubic root of 63.185 multiplied by no. players left to act divided by 16.37^0.66.

Or for the thick ones here, bet bigger twice and the money will go in nicely on the river

c9h13no3 said:

Bigger on the flop & turn.

Btw, this board is not dry at all. Your opponent is going to have a ton of pair+draw, and oesd hands. Since villain has shown the ability to bluff catch, I'm okay sticking the whole stack in there. But the vast majority of his hands are going to be JT, 98, 88 type stuff that might not want to play a pot that big. So I'd lean more towards a half pot bet against unknowns.

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implying that you like flop & turn bets as played or make them more to further deval draws? also, do you think its worthwhile considering that hes a player more likely to pay me off light because of his AK high bluff catch calling?

BelgoSuisse said:

yeah, bet sizing isn't perfect.

On the flop, if you want to set up a shove on the river, you need to multiply the $1.30 pot by 15.75, which means the pot should grow by the cubic root of that on each street, i.e. 2.5. Assuming it goes heads up from flop to river, that means firing 75% of pot on each street. ........

Make that $1 / $2.5 / $6.1

That way, by the river the shove is $6.1 into a $8.3 pot, which is better than the $6.6 into a $7.3 that you have. that is much nicer, i agree

And that's only if you want to have the same relative bet size on each street. There are pretty decent arguments to bet bigger on earlier streets and smaller on later ones.

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tbh i wasnt looking to shove the river here at all, was planning on a 1/2pot value bet like C9 said. not happy to get it in with overpairs vs unknowns, esp when he calls flop and turn. pots pretty big by the river and im wondering who sticks around for that long.
agree that ill be up against AT, JT, 88 a lot, i had him on those few hands. finding it pretty hard to believe i get called by these OTR though hence not happy about the shove, but seeing him call off AK high did make me think i can get paid light by him. i feel like i should be up against a set here when pots this size, but surely a set raises me at some point in the hand, so i definitely think im ahead after the turn and river totally brick.

also, my flop and turn bets were 3/4 pot? (75% OTF and 72% OTT)might be something to do with table ninja rounding to nearest BB, sizing changing to include/not include rake or something, i dunno.

so whats the general consensus on how big my flop and turn bet sizing should be? i really REALLY hate potting any street other than the flop when theres no raise involved as its too easy to distinguish when i want to get the money in and when i dont.

fwiw i did ship the river and he called... wont say what he had just yet

acky100 said:

I like bigger bets on flop and turn, like said, tons of pair and gutshots, some worse overpairs, not much to be scared about the way action has went either. Ship river.

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i swear you and i credit villains with the exact same ranges

im also not a fan of building big pots with a 1 pair hand OOP. is this reasonable or am i just being a nit? lol

A nit in this case. OOP with an overpair, you'll be right 80% of the time to just bet all the way through.

[] dry board

baudib1 said:

[] dry board

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i said dry because i do not expect to be getting called by virtually any hands that connect with it when i open x4BB UTG, ie dry vs his expected range. I now realise that this is a mistake in itself of giving vil too much credit.

jchoop said:

i said dry because i do not expect to be getting called by virtually any hands that connect with it when i open x4BB UTG

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People flat with a pretty large range from the BTN, even vs an UTG open.

jchoop said:

i said dry because i do not expect to be getting called by virtually any hands that connect with it when i open x4BB UTG, ie dry vs his expected range. I now realise that this is a mistake in itself of giving vil too much credit.

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It's a mistake of analyzing flop texture and of ranges. Any Jx or 8x hand has at least a straight draw and most of them also have pairs. Any Tx/9x hand has a pair and probably also a straight draw. These hands are in most flatting ranges.

K72r is a dry board. 933 is a dry board. Any board where a flopped straight is possible is by definition not dry.

baudib1 said:

It's a mistake of analyzing flop texture and of ranges. Any Jx or 8x hand has at least a straight draw and most of them also have pairs. Any Tx/9x hand has a pair and probably also a straight draw. These hands are in most flatting ranges.

K72r is a dry board. 933 is a dry board. Any board where a flopped straight is possible is by definition not dry.

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The only flopped straight is J8, do you really expect that in his call vs UTG open range? Just saying if I'm gunna flat a tight players open from UTG otb, I'm gunna have a big card hand or a pair- I realise that by assuming villain thinks this als, I'm assuming that he thinks like I do, which Is a mistake

jchoop said:

The only flopped straight is J8, do you really expect that in his call vs UTG open range? Just saying if I'm gunna flat a tight players open from UTG otb, I'm gunna have a big card hand or a pair- I realise that by assuming villain thinks this als, I'm assuming that he thinks like I do, which Is a mistake

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86 has a flopped straight too. 86s is a fine flatting hand on the BTN.

Anyway, a flop is wet when there are a lot of draws possible, not when it's very likely that someone flopped the nuts already. T97 is wet because connectors from QJ to 76 and one gapers from KJ to 68 have a straight, an oesd, a pair + draw, or two pairs. That's a huge range of hands, most of which qualify has decent hands to flat from the btn, especially if suited.

jchoop said:

The only flopped straight is J8, do you really expect that in his call vs UTG open range? Just saying if I'm gunna flat a tight players open from UTG otb, I'm gunna have a big card hand or a pair- I realise that by assuming villain thinks this als, I'm assuming that he thinks like I do, which Is a mistake

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UTG raises, BTN flats. Flop is T97. This flop is better for button than for UTG.