$10 NLHE 6-max: Value or SD spot on the river ?

R

razzor94

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poker stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $11.91 (119.1 bb)
BB: $12.28 (122.8 bb)
UTG: $10 (100 bb)
MP: $34.12 (341.2 bb)
CO: $13.54 (135.4 bb)
Hero (BTN): $16.56 (165.6 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with Q
diamond4.gif
Q
heart4.gif

2 folds, CO raises to $0.25, Hero raises to $0.90, 2 folds, CO raises to $2.20, Hero calls $1.30

Flop: ($4.55) T
club4.gif
6
spade4.gif
9
spade4.gif
(2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $2.50, CO calls $2.50

Turn: ($9.55) 9
heart4.gif
(2 players)
CO checks, Hero checks

River: ($9.55) 8
spade4.gif
(2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $2.92, CO calls $2.92

Results: $15.39 pot ($0.69 rake)
Final Board: T
club4.gif
6
spade4.gif
9
spade4.gif
9
heart4.gif
8
spade4.gif


The villain is shaping up to be very tight even even though i only have 33 hands on him. 6-6-0 made me think that i should maybe flat pre but again his open was small, from the CO and again i only have 33 hands on him.
I cbet little more than 1/2 pot becouse i put him on 99-QQ and AQ+ so i am kind of in a far ahead/far behind scenario. I am not worried the least about flush draws or straight draws as those are rarely in his range unless he has AQs or AKs. When he calls I somewhat rule out FDs becouse i think he would mostly raise them. I am certainly discounting any sets as i am sure he would raise given the board is so wet.
On the turn FDs fill and i check. This is another spot to think about whether to bet but i think nothing worse calls here except JJ.
When he checks the river everything screams JJ given the line he chose.
I bet small with the intention of folding to a check raise and he calls.

Any thoughts on my line, thought process, am i off somewhere with my bet sizing and could checking back QQ here against this opponent be the right play ?
 
AlfieAA

AlfieAA

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Why check the turn?

Looks like jj-AA

Maybe a 5bet pre?

He could just call the river because the flush and straights get there?
 
Figaroo2

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Because you closed the action pre flop he could still have AA KK JJ AK and if he's tight that's exactly what range I'd give him.
The fact that he checks the flop suggests he doesn't have AA very often but check calling the flop here could still be KK JJ or AK with one or two spades.
I think I probably check the turn once he calls on the flop if we bet turn pot commitment issues arise.
I also think I check the river. There is just as much KK as JJ and once you throw in really badly played AA and AsKs the combos are slightly more that beat you but it's close so it's not going to be a big mistake either way. I like the river sizing, any bigger and JJ might fold but I'd still expect to see KK just as often as JJ.
 
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razzor94

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Why check the turn?

Looks like jj-AA

Maybe a 5bet pre?

He could just call the river because the flush and straights get there?

Checking the turn as i dont make better hands fold and worse hands continuing(except JJ) by betting and for pot control.
5betting pre will just make him continue with hands that are better than mine and he will fold all his weaker holdings.
 
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razzor94

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Because you closed the action pre flop he could still have AA KK JJ AK and if he's tight that's exactly what range I'd give him.
The fact that he checks the flop suggests he doesn't have AA very often but check calling the flop here could still be KK JJ or AK with one or two spades.
I think I probably check the turn once he calls on the flop if we bet turn pot commitment issues arise.
I also think I check the river. There is just as much KK as JJ and once you throw in really badly played AA and AsKs the combos are slightly more that beat you but it's close so it's not going to be a big mistake either way. I like the river sizing, any bigger and JJ might fold but I'd still expect to see KK just as often as JJ.

I guess when he is tight as he is he could maybe just try to see a cheap showdown with AA or KK on this flop. Now that i think about it i dont think he thinks about my range in this spot or in general. He is just looking at his hand strength compered to the board and i should probably note that. He did actually show up with KK to my surprise.
 
AlfieAA

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Checking the turn as i dont make better hands fold and worse hands continuing(except JJ) by betting and for pot control.
5betting pre will just make him continue with hands that are better than mine and he will fold all his weaker holdings.

great point about checking the turn and you're right.....same with 5betting, you want to see a flop with QQ?

shouldnt be too hard to assign him a range v flop texture with 6/6 stats...

sorry about my terrible HA skills, ive not really done this before
 
John A

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Flop and turn look fine, but I don't understand the river bet. You say this guy is playing pretty nitty. Nitty players aren't going to pay off light on that river. Keeping that in mind, he probably doesn't 4-bet JJ that often, so I'd assign him JJ+ here and it would be a discounted JJ.

So he's going to show up with QQ+ here a good amount and you won't folding anything else. This is a simple combo count to do in a spot like this and see a VB doesn't make any sense.
 
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razzor94

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Flop and turn look fine, but I don't understand the river bet. You say this guy is playing pretty nitty. Nitty players aren't going to pay off light on that river. Keeping that in mind, he probably doesn't 4-bet JJ that often, so I'd assign him JJ+ here and it would be a discounted JJ.

So he's going to show up with QQ+ here a good amount and you won't folding anything else. This is a simple combo count to do in a spot like this and see a VB doesn't make any sense.

You are right. Didnt think it trough. I was multitabling and at the time it just seemed like a good spot to get value from.
 
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