$10 NLHE 6-max: Turning top pair into bluff on river gone wrong/right
Hi everyone going to cross post this in cash game hand analysis, as I think it's an interesting hand from my challenge that I am attempting and I gave my thoughts on what was going on throughout the hand. Link to my challenge(I'm going through every stake level at merge and streaming many of my sessions on Twitch) thread if anyone wants a look at that:
Let's dive into the hand!
Merge, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools (http://www.holdemmanager.com/) Powered By Holdem Manager (http://www.holdemmanager.com/) - The Ultimate Poker Software (http://www.holdemmanager.com/) Suite.
SB: $14.57 (145.7 bb)
Hero (BB): $14.57 (145.7 bb)
UTG: $10.41 (104.1 bb)
MP: $10.11 (101.1 bb)
CO: $11.29 (112.9 bb)
BTN: $11.66 (116.6 bb)
: Hero is BB with 8
UTG raises to $0.30
, MP folds
, CO calls $0.30, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.20
: ($0.95) 6
7 (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $0.40
, CO calls $0.40, Hero calls $0.40
: ($2.15) Q (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $1.10
, CO folds
, Hero calls $1.10
: ($4.35) 4 (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $2.30
, Hero raises to $12.77 and is all-in
, UTG calls $6.31 and is all-in
$21.57 pot ($1.19 rake)
Final Board: 6
Hero showed 8
and lost (-$10.41 net)
UTG showed K
and won $20.38 ($9.97 net)
So pre flop, UTG is a tag on the nittier side, playing 17/15, CO was a fish playing 40/5 I probably would have called pre even if CO was standard tag just because I think I play much better postflop then pretty much everyone at these stakes, even the "good regs". If it had been folded to me after UTG raise I obviously would have made a super easy fold. CO being a fish just made it an easier call for me.
So on flop UTG bets tiny, less than half pot, with an OESD this is obviously a super easy call even if CO hadn't come along for the ride.
Turn gives us top pair and UTG fires out again for just about half pot, CO folds, and I make a super easy call top pair + OESD definitely can't fold that here for half pot, maybe even a call for full pot.
Now river is the 4 of clubs, completing the club draw. I check with intention of folding, but then he leads out for half pot, a curious sizing IMO. I figured he would either bomb river if he had a flush (with his UTG opening range, it would be AK AQ AJ or KQ of clubs, he would definitely bet close to or over pot with any of those hands) or just check behind with any other PP or Queen that he hit (JJ, 1010, AQ, and KQ not of clubs). I knew almost for certain he didn't have a set based off of play leading up to river ( he would have bet wayyy bigger on flop if he flopped a set, with the board that drawy tags @ these stakes are soo scared of being sucked out on they are bombing it the whole way) Same with thing with turn, if he had turned a set (QQ) (or even flopped a set) he would have bet bigger on turn with 3 to a straight and double suited on board. So at this point I say to myself he HAS to have Aces here, nothing else makes sense (or obviously KK) but AA is what I'm saying to myself. And then I'm thinking given the action if I was in his shoes and had played AA as he had, I would be bettish smallish on river with the intention of folding to a jam, especially against a fellow lag/tag (thats generally what I am) (I played 24/17 over this particular session), if its a fish maybe he's going crazy if he overshoves to your river bet so you call, but I could so easily have made a flush here which he has to fold to. A fish came in the hand pre and I have some sort of suited connecting hand (which I actually did) like J10 of clubs or something or even if my q8 was clubs instead of diamonds, so obviously I have flushes in my range here, this is exactly how I would play it and if I were in his position I would definitely have folded to my shove. Which is why I thought it was a good play, he ended up calling. Which I don't like but was the right play in this particular vacuum of a scenario. Oh yea one other thing I wanted to mention I figured some people might say some small % of the time he could also have AQ or KQ non clubsuited when he bets this river with this size which might be true in a vacuum of just the river street. But I'm pretty sure he wouldn't cbet flop with those hands. Vil cbet is only 63%, and multiway gotta be even lower. I would be very surprised if he (or most vils) bets either of those on that flop.
I was pretty steamed about this hand for the rest of my session but I generally don't actually let it affect my play at all . I have another interesting hand where I range merged that I think might be good for another analysis I might post after this, we'll see. It took longer to write this than I thought it would haha. But yea so theres one of my big hands from this session that didn't quite work out for me! But I'm still very happy with how I played the hand.
Wrong: He called
Right: I had him pegged and think he made a bad call.