$10 NLHE 6-max: Turn thoughts vs a really weird 3bet flat

$10 NL HE 6-max: Turn thoughts vs a really weird 3bet flat

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 15/12/7

Okay, villain is real nitty for 6-max, and he has a 75% fold to 3bet over 164 hands. I'm prepared to get it in on the flop, and was definitely expecting a 4bet shove. I guess that brings me to the question of why i didn't just 3bet shove myself, but I have no clue why he is flatting

What to do on turn?

pokerstars Game #30961878194: Hold'em No Limit ($0.05/$0.10) - 2009/07/28 0:43:22 ET
Table 'Atropos IX' 6-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 2: PiS.Juliam ($11 in chips)
Seat 3: lemlywinks ($23.90 in chips)
Seat 4: manicolo ($12.75 in chips)
Seat 5: r2pkr ($10.75 in chips)
Seat 6: GermanAGB ($1.95 in chips)
lemlywinks: posts small blind $0.05
manicolo: posts big blind $0.10
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to lemlywinks [Td Ad]
r2pkr: folds
GermanAGB: folds
PiS.Juliam: folds
lemlywinks: raises $0.20 to $0.30
manicolo: calls $0.20
*** FLOP *** [7d Jd Qs]
lemlywinks: bets $0.40
loubobs70 joins the table at seat #1
manicolo: raises $1 to $1.40
lemlywinks: raises $2.50 to $3.90
manicolo: calls $2.50
*** TURN *** [7d Jd Qs] [8h]
lemlywinks: wtf?

Lemlywinks said:

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 15/12/7

Okay, villain is real nitty for 6-max, and he has a 75% fold to 3bet over 164 hands. I'm prepared to get it in on the flop, and was definitely expecting a 4bet shove. I guess that brings me to the question of why i didn't just 3bet shove myself, but I have no clue why he is flatting

What to do on turn?

PokerStars Game #30961878194: Hold'em No Limit ($0.05/$0.10) - 2009/07/28 0:43:22 ET
Table 'Atropos IX' 6-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 2: PiS.Juliam ($11 in chips)
Seat 3: lemlywinks ($23.90 in chips)
Seat 4: manicolo ($12.75 in chips)
Seat 5: r2pkr ($10.75 in chips)
Seat 6: GermanAGB ($1.95 in chips)
lemlywinks: posts small blind $0.05
manicolo: posts big blind $0.10
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to lemlywinks [Td Ad]
r2pkr: folds
GermanAGB: folds
PiS.Juliam: folds
lemlywinks: raises $0.20 to $0.30
manicolo: calls $0.20
*** FLOP *** [7d Jd Qs]
lemlywinks: bets $0.40
loubobs70 joins the table at seat #1
manicolo: raises $1 to $1.40
lemlywinks: raises $2.50 to $3.90
manicolo: calls $2.50
*** TURN *** [7d Jd Qs] <font color='red'>8♥</font>
lemlywinks: wtf?

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Have you raised from SB a lot recently? Normally I'm expecting BB to call w Ax, 2 broadway cards, pairs, and not much else (sc's for example).

You're probably behind on the flop, probably to a good Q, but probably not 2 pair or better (which I'd expect a 7Af to 4bet). A 7Af is capable of betting draws, so the 8 is not necessarily a blank, but I think a pair is still more likely.

I'd lead the turn w a full psb or shove here - a single pair short of KQ will have a tough time continuing, so FE is decent, and if he continues we've got a lot of outs even against a made straight.

yea I should note that I have been stealing from this guy often, I mean he just folds so often I can't help myself

slycbnew said:

Have you raised from SB a lot recently? Normally I'm expecting BB to call w Ax, 2 broadway cards, pairs, and not much else (sc's for example).

You're probably behind on the flop, probably to a good Q, but probably not 2 pair or better (which I'd expect a 7Af to 4bet). A 7Af is capable of betting draws, so the 8 is not necessarily a blank, but I think a pair is still more likely.

I'd lead the turn w a full psb or shove here - a single pair short of KQ will have a tough time continuing, so FE is decent, and if he continues we've got a lot of outs even against a made straight.

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+1

You have 15 outs V's most hands, 13 outs V's a set and his flop call could have been an ego call with a super weak hand. Shoving the turn is shexshee.

Fold to 3bet stat is for preflop unless you specifically have a filter for post flop betting actions.

15/12 I wouldn't call a nit. More like 12/9 is a nit to me. 15/12->21/18 is more standard TAG, but it's really semantics anyway.

A 15/12 is prolly flatting pp's and AQ, which 3betting oop seems suicidal. Might also flat some SC's against a tighter opponnent, but that should be more an in position thing. The fact that he's the bb leads some people to call wider with lots of SC type hands since they feel they're getting a good price.

His AF is 7, so I actually prefer flatting this flop raise. He's going to be doing this with quite a lot of hands. At these lower stakes, I like to play draws passively, since FE doesn't get you too far generally.

In this spot he's either got a set, or TPTK based on my perceived flatting range. Now that AF of 7 means something else, that this player folds. He's not the type to just call bets for no reason. He likes to play the hands that he selects quite strongly. The only hand we're really behind right now is a set, and we still have 33% equity against that.

I like flatting here for a couple reasons.

1) He's very aggressive. By raising we take away his exploitable trait. He will likely fire his own draws and tptk hands and keep on firing. However once raised, he's not going to keep firing at a pot he no longer thinks is able to be bought.

2) Raising turns our hand into a bluff. We have quite a bit of equity, but raising is only going to drive out hands we weren't really afraid of anyway. If he shoves here, we're behind, and we have to call anyway. 1/3 of our stack's in the middle, so we're getting 2:1, which the Fdraw is worth alone. I'd rather take the cheap shot at the flush, than putting the whole stack on it behind.

Mase31683 said:

2) Raising turns our hand into a bluff. We have quite a bit of equity, but raising is only going to drive out hands we weren't really afraid of anyway. If he shoves here, we're behind, and we have to call anyway. 1/3 of our stack's in the middle, so we're getting 2:1, which the Fdraw is worth alone. I'd rather take the cheap shot at the flush, than putting the whole stack on it behind.

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We've also got a double belly buster (see, Wossa, I told you I love that phrase!), does that change anything? I think your analysis is sound, I just like our 13-15 or so outs a helluva lot and am perfectly happy to call a shove.

slycbnew said:

We've also got a double belly buster (see, Wossa, I told you I love that phrase!), does that change anything? I

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Know what? I completely forgot about the turn, lol.

Once we get to the turn, we're kind of in rough shape from my viewpoint. He's not the type to call draws very often. So if he's calling, he's either got a monster, or just a hand that he feels has showdown value and that getting stacks in will be -EV for that hand (Stuff like top pair fits nicely here).

Against an unlikely hand like KQ or Q2, we have 38% equity. Against AQ, 34%.

The problem is that the pot is already big, but we don't know if we're going to have a big hand or not. Pumping more money into the pot when we have < 40% equity's not a great thing. I think I'd check, and hope he checked behind.

If he bets, just go straight odds. If you're getting 3:2 peel the river. Not a fun spot though for sure.

K good. I shoved turn and he folded. "sheezee enough"

Thought I was making a good play, just needed to reinforce that

Lemlywinks said:

K good. I shoved turn and he folded. "sheezee enough"

Thought I was making a good play, just needed to reinforce that

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The shove maximizes our FE - a fold is really what we want to see here, good play. To Mase's point, we're not a favorite here, the outs just provide balance to the possibility he doesn't fold.

I had a similar hand today, rivered my straight after villain called (my FE was not as good as yours here, villain was a loose passive fish who wasn't going to let go of tp), and got flamed in chat for at least five minutes.

Fun - and obvious that this works better against an aggressive villain than a passive fish, your line is better than mine was, because my FE wasn't as good as I think yours is here. Kudos!

i think making any decent size bet on the turn commits both u and ur opponent so just shove it in there and really hope he folds but if u get called hey u have nut flush draw and double belly buster so u can easily outdraw him and he might even call allin with a hand like Kd10d and ur in better shape.