FWIW, I probably ALWAYS check-raise the nuts on the river here. Also, seems to me that villain is in the BB? Villain acts before us in each
Originally Posted by Deco
I check back. Are 10nl regs really bad enough to call the turn and river with an overpair?
I'd have put villains range on sets, straights flush draws and maybe two pairs once he calls the turn. That range isn't so great no more, sets beat us, two pairs have either filled out or are counter fitted and weaker straights may not call alongside the busted flush draws.
+1 to a bigger turn raise.
Lololol ok now wait a minute. Deco, idk what stakes you play - I'm not making assumptions or calling anyone out btw - but I don't think any "TAG-ish regs" at 10nl are 3betting 22-88. Also point out that there are only so many PP combos that hit this board left... 1 combo of 77, 1 combo of 66, 3 combos of 55, 3 combos of 44. So even less likely imo b/c the lower cards are the ones with more combos available.
With similar logic, do you see that he can't have 76s here? No combination of 76s is possible here because of the suits of the cards we can see (a 6 or 7 of each suit is visible to us). OP said villain was anything but spewy, so doubt he's 3betting tiny offsuit connectors... And fwiw the only straight flush draws he could have are 63hh and 32hh exactly. And he is NEVER playing these this way (though we do beat both of these).
Obviously he has a ton of two pair in his range on the turn since the board pairs - did you mean flopped 2 pair? Again this is basically impossible. No combos of 76s, just 1 combo of 54s.
It may seem ridiculous, but it's actually more likely that he flopped it here and is worried you filled up than that he filled up himself imo. 98s has 3 combos, and is something that a TAG reg COULD feel comfortable 3betting at 10nl.
But most likely of all:
Villain - "Sweet, KK!! I'ma 3bet dis ho."
~Hero calls 3bet~
Villain - "Yussss. Gonna own him."
~Flop, Villain bets, Hero calls~
Villain - "Aw yeah, takin' him down."
Villain - "Nawt dah best card, but he prob has JJ - time to pwn!!"
~Villain bets, Hero raises~
Villain - "Oh shit. Oh shit. Oh shit. What do I do? I can't fold KK to one raise... that's the scariest board in the world. He has to raise air here. CAWL."
"Okay don't get crazy. Don't bet. Please don't bet."
Okay maybe not QUITE like that, but you get the idea.