$10 NLHE 6-max: turn a combo draw on weird board- x/c or x/r arguments

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 18/13/1

18/13/2 4% 3 bet

I x/jammed the turn which is probably super spewy but id like to hear what your thoughts are here

pokerstars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (6 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from http://www.flopturnriver.com

Hero (CO) ($20.31)
Button ($10.93)
SB ($10.05)
BB ($7.35)
UTG ($18.70)
MP ($5.96)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 9 , 8
2 folds, Hero bets $0.30, Button calls $0.30, 1 fold, BB calls $0.20

Flop: ($0.95) 7 , 4 , 10 (3 players)
BB bets $0.50, Hero calls $0.50, Button raises to $1.80, 1 fold, Hero calls $1.30

Turn: ($5.05) A (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $2.55, Hero raises to $12.50, Button calls $6.28 (All-In)

River: ($22.71) 3 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Raise flop when BB donk bets to around $1.50~ here usually (obviously depending on his H.U.D stats). Turn have a combo draw and have a ton of outs, shoving turn here is never spewy, it really depends on what you think the villain has, if he has two pair or a set it's best to just call turn and see it cheap as you have little to no fold equity against these hands. Also the pot is bigger than his stack by the time he bets the turn and he is getting nearly 3:1 to call so in this situation I think calling the turn is better than shoving, if u hit the straight/flush on the river you get his stack around 85% of the time here I think and when u miss the river u can safely fold. It looks like he has a set or A/10 here more than a diamond flush draw.

IMHO, villain stats are pretty solid for 6 max. Personally, based purely on his stats, I would tend to give him more respect.

dj11 said:

IMHO, villain stats are pretty solid for 6 max. Personally, based purely on his stats, I would tend to give him more respect.

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If by solid=Nit then yes




Ok we are gonna have plenty of equity here but villain is repping a pretty strong line here.
I dont think we are really ever getting folds here and our draws are resonable disguised with the back door FD and open ender so we are usualy getting calls on the river when we spike.
His range is just so narrow imo, 44,77,TT,AT,TdXd,9d8d,Adxd, well yeah we got like 25-32% equity against his calling range but for the jam to be profitable he needs to have a lot more folds then I can find.

As for the flop im raising that up 99% of the time. We got equity and he donks into us, this is junk so much of the time and when the BB does call we still have plenty of outs.

Easiest call ever on the turn. Do you really think you have fold equity against a guy who raises the flop over 2 players.

c9h13no3 said:

Easiest call ever. Do you really think you have fold equity against a guy who raises the flop over 2 players?

Raising the flop is also pretty terrible.

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Interesting. Could you eloberate your thinking about that?

S93 said:

Interesting. Could you eloberate your thinking about that?

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Eh, I deleted it because I realized we were the PFR.

I still think a call is fine here, because getting the button to come along is a big win. Plus there's nothing stopping us from getting him off his silly donking later in the hand.

c9h13no3 said:

Easiest call ever on the turn. Do you really think you have fold equity against a guy who raises the flop over 2 players.

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Very much this.

13 of our 15 outs will get us paid because the straight is concealed and the flush was backdoored and we're getting such fantastic odds. Either he has the set and will shove river, or he has a busted FD/SD and will likely shove river as a bluff. And if he ends up having JJ, QQ, AT type hands then we still had the right odds to call the turn even without impliedness.

Looking at his stats and the action I'm guessing this is 44 or 77.

I really think it is a call flop, call turn.
Your draw is not enough to jam against a guy that 3-bet on the flop, but i think you can milk half of the pot if the river hits you so you have some implied odds.
That half pot raise on the turn from the villain might feel weak but actually bad TAGs do this to induce a bluff when they have sets.

swingro said:

I really think it is a call flop, call turn.
Your draw is not enough to jam against a guy that 3-bet on the flop, but i think you can milk half of the pot if the river hits you so you have some implied odds.
That half pot raise on the turn from the villain might feel weak but actually bad TAGs do this to induce a bluff when they have sets.

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I don't think he is trying to "induce a bluff here", this is simply him trying to give good pot odds so he can shove the river probably as he thinks his set is invulnerable as he doesn't want the hero to fold. Also I don't see why anyone would try and bluff the turn here no matter what cards we hold, the fold equity against him here is so low.