$10 NLHE 6-max: Trips, river call or shove?

fletchdad

fletchdad

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Title says it all..


Pacific $10.00 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players - View hand 2119560
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

Hero (UTG): $10.00 - VPIP: 22, PFR: 14, 3B: 4, AF: 1,5, Hands: 17089
CO: $7.85 - VPIP: 16, PFR: 11, 3B: 13, AF: 6,0, hands: 74
BTN: $1.00 - VPIP: 39, PFR: 12, 3B: 0, AF: 2,5, Hands: 33
SB: $10.00 - VPIP: 21, PFR: 13, 3B: 10, AF: 0,0, Hands: 24
BB: $21.03 - VPIP: 63, PFR: 24, 3B: 18, AF: 1,5, Hands: 59

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is UTG with T :diamond: A :diamond:
Hero raises to $0.40, 3 folds, BB calls $0.30

Flop: ($0.85) 5 :heart: 2 :spade: A :spade: (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.70, BB calls $0.70

Turn: ($2.25) 9 :club: (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $1.80, BB calls $1.80

River: ($5.85) A :club: (2 players)
BB bets $2.92, Hero wants to do the right thing here.....
 
youregoodmate

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Looks like a whale so I shove.
 
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AlwaysPlanAhe

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The river doesn't look like a bluff, you've barreled 2 streets quite big and his bet is comparatively small (and value-ey) so we can assume most of the time he at least has something decent that he wants to showdown.

List of villain's likely nutty range that if you shove, he calls and we're beat:

{AJ, A9, A5, A2, 55, 22, 34} - 35 combos

You shove he calls and we win:

{A8, A7, A6, A4, A3} - 20 combos

I removed TT+ AQ+ because of his huge 3bet%. It's weird because if you remove the {34} hand from his range it's marginally better to shove but the fact he's 65/34 means you sort of have to have it in there. I don't think villain calls a shove with mid PP's enough to be able to add that to the "he calls we win" list. And even though the "he calls and we're beat" list is considerably heavier @7:4 it's probably a bit closer than it looks. It's a shame you're not 150+ deep coz then I'm loving a min-raise/fold but in this spot I think it's better to just call.
 
KerouacsDog

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call, villain has better ace.....................?
 
Yoshimiii

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could be a blocking bet, raise river though nevertheless.
 
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MSINIWRAD

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I like a shove here and expect to get snap called with a worse A...given the amt of hands hes playing he prolly raises at some point with AJ, AQ, AK and almost certainly would try to build the pot with A9 or a set on the turn...expect his range to be all worse aces and MAYBE A-10 for a chop
 
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MSINIWRAD

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I really dont think 34 is in his range at all either again because he didnt raise you on the turn when you fired a second barrel...have to assume he would want value there hoping you did have the A
 
vinylspiros

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to me its a call. u dont have the nuts. you have a very good hand. he could have a boat or a better ace. pocet 5's,pocket 9's and even 34 beat you. its pretty obvious that he knows you have a hand like an ax type of hand so just call cause the paired board makes it dangerous enough. every time my opponent sees me betting strong and goes over the top,i think its a good sign of alarm.
This, in combination with the fact that he saw you raising under the gun and is playing strong against you on that board leads me to think he has a monster.
 
Yoshimiii

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to me its a call. u dont have the nuts. you have a very good hand. he could have a boat or a better ace. pocet 5's,pocket 9's and even 34 beat you. its pretty obvious that he knows you have a hand like an ax type of hand so just call cause the paired board makes it dangerous enough. every time my opponent sees me betting strong and goes over the top,i think its a good sign of alarm.
This, in combination with the fact that he saw you raising under the gun and is playing strong against you on that board leads me to think he has a monster.

I don't agree, the villain has fishy stats. I think villain can easily pay off with worse hands like a pair of tens+ if we raise his river bet or worse aces. Also it doesn't look like he has a full house the way he played it imo, if he has a full house I think he would bet more on river hoping that we have the ace. Might be wrong here but I still think it looks like a blokish type bet. 3/4 is what I would be most worried about.

Also it would help if we knew how many tables villain was playing.
 
forsakenone

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this is a good thread.

this hand happened when I was sweating fletchdad, he wanted to shove, I said call.

it's nice hearing everyone opinion on this.
 
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RamdeeBen

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Mixed feelings on this one!

His high VPIP makes me wanna jam, but he passive line pre/post/turn given how high his 3bet percentage is, makes me kinda wanna just call.



Thinking about it now, I think just calling is probs best as I don't think he's going to be bad enough to call of a shove with just random pairs in his range.

I think we eliminate; A,J+/TT+

I think he has like sometimes worse A,x/middle pairs hands but I think there are going to be times he shows up with A2/A5/A9 22/55/99.

The question here..does he show up with more worse Ax hands to justify a jam here for the times he shows up with FH's and does he really call of a jam from anything we beat? (other than A,x hands)
 
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duggs

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jam it in, he is a whale, he has an ace and just wet himself, we have greater than 50% equity v calling range so easy vbet, plus given he leads trips he probably leads 2pair+, occasionally he has AJ but still a shove
 
duggs

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The river doesn't look like a bluff, you've barreled 2 streets quite big and his bet is comparatively small (and value-ey) so we can assume most of the time he at least has something decent that he wants to showdown.

List of villain's likely nutty range that if you shove, he calls and we're beat:

{AJ, A9, A5, A2, 55, 22, 34} - 35 combos

You shove he calls and we win:

{A8, A7, A6, A4, A3} - 20 combos

i think we can heavily discount sets and flopped 2 pair and even turned 2 pair, since if he is leading out trips on the river he seems pretty likely to just donk lead according to hand strength, and check call otherwise, which makes me think they would lead flop or turn or raise somewhere yea?
 
OMGITSOVER9K

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yeah its a ship, and given stats doesn't he raise TP here or on turns at times?
 
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AlwaysPlanAhe

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i think we can heavily discount sets and flopped 2 pair and even turned 2 pair, since if he is leading out trips on the river he seems pretty likely to just donk lead according to hand strength, and check call otherwise, which makes me think they would lead flop or turn or raise somewhere yea?

I don't think we can heavily discount 2pr+ but I would agree they make up a small part of what villain's range is. From my experience a fish who chooses to slowplay a hand will check both flop and turn and most of the time river unless a card comes out that changes their plan. In this scenario flopped 2pr+ that has decided to slowplay flop will continue through with that plan on the turn. The bet on the river is either a block bet or value and because of this I can only imagine villain's range to be something very strong (and will call a shove) or something very weak like 9x/44/77/etc (that probably wont).

I think our calling range v's his river bet range is strong and we win this pot a stupid % of the time when we call. If we shove then it's not our hand v's his river bet range, it's our hand v's his stack off range which is going to be verrrry heavily weighted toward nutted.

Also hero bet the flop and turn very big so if villain's river is a block then it's because he wants to avoid paying $4-4.50 on the river....so thinking he will call off a $7 river shove after hero close to potting flop and turn with Axxx board is a bit optimistic. However even with my 7:4 range ratio I definately agree it's very very close and perhaps BE if villain refuses to fold 9x. Actually if we know villain will call river shove with a stubborn 9x then I would agree shove is profitable...
 
duggs

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i can see the merit in that, but surely villain is more likely to lead out flop or turn or c/r given his stats and the flush draw on the flop?

i think he turns up with sets and 2 pair very rarely so i think his range we lose to looks more like

AJ, 4 combos
maybe 6 combos between the rest of his range you gave as i think most are pretty unlikely given he 3bets a bunch (and therefore will most likely raise monsters on the flop with a flushdraw out there).
 
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AlwaysPlanAhe

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You know what I am actually thinking that if villain isn't c/r the turn with 2pr+ then he's most likely c/r the river so river donk does weigh more toward block bet than value. You have convinced me to shove.
 
JCgrind

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vs normal player call, vs this fishball jam and fistpump
 
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IMO with the stats available the only options are call or shove just depends on what type of player you are.
 
Yoshimiii

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IMO with the stats available the only options are call or shove just depends on what type of player you are.

Type of player HERO is should have nothing to do with it, especially against a fish who isn't looking at our range of hands that we can have. It's a shove/call depending what type VILLAIN is.
 
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