re: Poker & $10 NLHE 6-max: Trips facing turn raise and river shove
Originally Posted by Matthew Southall
This was my logic too. I actually thought it's more probable that the villain is just betting a FD (since it checked to him) than it is that the villain has a made hand. Then I thought: in the event that the villain does have a made hand, it's probably not AQ or QQ (since he didn't 3bet squeeze preflop) and there are only 4 combos of sets and the rest is just weak Qx hands which I can outdraw if I hit an Ace, a 7 or a backdoor flush. So I thought I should peel at least one street.
On the turn, I actually wasn't sure if I played this correctly. Should I have check-raised instead of donking out? And should I have 3bet the turn once my donk bet got raised?
I think if you check turn, it will look like you are drawing to villain here. So by checking, I think V bets this turn card, and we could very well c/r, and blow the pot up. And our goofy line will have V making mistakes and calling off light.
Point being, I think checking is better than donking. I feel like V will bet more hands if you check, but he will probably not call with some hands he may bet here OTT if we lead out like this. Like air that he bets the flop with, he will try to bet again (perhaps) if we check.
And by donking, we also allow V to play perfectly against us, if he is weak. He may just fold. Also, you are sort of coming out and saying you have a big hand with this. V may be hip to it.
There is a risk of V checking back I suppose, but in this spot I think we can count on V to bet turn here.