$10 NLHE 6-max: Trips facing aggression V2

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 33/15/1.2

PokerStars - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: $10.21
BTN: $27.34
SB: $14.40
BB: $4.73
UTG: $26.11
Hero (MP): $28.00

SB posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10, CO posts ante $0.02, BTN posts ante $0.02, SB posts ante $0.02, BB posts ante $0.02, UTG posts ante $0.02, Hero posts ante $0.02

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.27) Hero has Q:club: J:club:

UTG raises to $0.30, Hero calls $0.30, fold, fold, fold, BB calls $0.20

Flop: ($1.07, 3 players) J:diamond: 3:spade: J:heart:
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets $0.80, fold, UTG calls $0.80

Turn: ($2.67, 2 players) 9:club:
UTG checks, Hero bets $2.00, UTG raises to $4.00, Hero calls $2.00

River: ($10.67, 2 players) 4:heart:
UTG bets $7.60, Hero calls $7.60

I think I should have folded pre. I dont do well against his range, but we are very deep.

bump

Preflop is fine imo, I'd be tempted to 3bet even seeing as we're deep and villains a fish. That river is sick, the turn minraise + the river bet is crazy strong.
QQ+ gone mad? JT? Air which floated the flop because fish go crazy on paired boards? Splits. It all seems very unlikely but villain reps very little and fish be crazy so I think I'm going to call. Very close spot imo.

We need 29% equity to call, assuming villain never bluffs, never goes sick with QQ+, not throwing J8o and below in and that we don't negate everything bar 99/J9 for not c-betting/checkraising the turn our equity is 23%.

Hand 0: 77.083%{ 99, 33, AJs, KJs, QJs, J9s+, AJo, KJo, QJo, J9o+ }
Hand 1: 22.917% { QcJc }

We're not going to need AA spaz outs or floated KQ spewfests that often to call. I could be wrong I probably pay off fish too often. But as shown above it can't be a bad mistake unless we know he only raises fullhouses or something daft.

Without a doubt, one of my biggest leaks is paying off the fish. So, take my analysis with a grain of salt.

However, I think he definitely has overpairs in his range here. If you add KK/AA (and also JT, why did you leave that out, Deco?), we are at 46.6%. This would make it an easy call. I guess it comes down to if you believe he could be doing this with KK/AA, which I personally think the average fish would. So many weaker players (myself included a lot of the time) will go broke with AA even if all the signs point to that they are beat.

My 2cents

JT is in there as part of "J9o+".

yeah sorry I just realized that

I play it the same.

things are not looking bright.but if he has kk playing that way fine.more like 33.why not cbet? strange..

Cheers guys, appreciate the input. Seems like I've had a lot of these spots recently.

Version 3 to come soon

youregoodmate said:

I think I should have folded pre. I dont do well against his range, but we are very deep.

Click to expand...

Correct. More importantly it's just not that against his range you aren't doing great, it's that you have high potential of having poor post flop positioning if the Co/BTN calls (not to even factor in squeezes). Same hand and open by the weak player and you're on the CO/BTN, then it's a much more profitable call. You don't have to play your hand for showdown value as often when you have position.

John A said:

Correct. More importantly it's just not that against his range you aren't doing great, it's that you have high potential of having poor post flop positioning if the Co/BTN calls (not to even factor in squeezes). Same hand and open by the weak player and you're on the CO/BTN, then it's a much more profitable call. You don't have to play your hand for showdown value as often when you have position.

Click to expand...

What do you think about 3betting? That would be my standard here anyways

John A said:

Correct. More importantly it's just not that against his range you aren't doing great, it's that you have high potential of having poor post flop positioning if the Co/BTN calls (not to even factor in squeezes). Same hand and open by the weak player and you're on the CO/BTN, then it's a much more profitable call. You don't have to play your hand for showdown value as often when you have position.

Click to expand...

Yeah I think this is a very good point. To a certain extent does the fact we are 250bb's deep and villain is a fish make it more marginal?

Also as acky asks is 3 betting here better than a fold?

actually i dont know why im asking it as a question, 3betting here is just printing money for me

acky100 said:

actually i dont know why im asking it as a question, 3betting here is just printing money for me

Click to expand...

You typically 3-bet UTG raisers? He prolly raises 10% pre in this spot, and its quite hard to get someone down to the 3.5%ish you need here to make this instantly profitable. So I'm not sure why you're saying it's "printing money".

"LOL u guize, I can 3-bet here and print money. And better yet, I'll make two posts in this thread advocating this non-standard line at 10NL and then provide no argument for it and act like yer all dumb if you don't agree."

>_X

c9h13no3 said:

You typically 3-bet UTG raisers? He prolly raises 10% pre in this spot, and its quite hard to get someone down to the 3.5%ish you need here to make this instantly profitable. So I'm not sure why you're saying it's "printing money".

"LOL u guize, I can 3-bet here and print money. And better yet, I'll make two posts in this thread advocating this non-standard line at 10NL and then provide no argument for it and act like yer all dumb if you don't agree."

>_X

Click to expand...

Okay i'll elaborate cause i was obviously calling everyone in this thread dumb for not agreeing.

guy is 35/15 (this means he is bad C9, he probably isnt positionally aware)

even if he is opening 10% (probably is more because im a nit and even i open more than 10% UTG) he is still a fish and therefore like 99% of fish do, is calling 3bets OOP alllll the ****ing time basically

10% range or 40% range he is missing far more flops than he realises and will be playing fit or fold like 99% of fish do in 3bet pots.

We have a pretty ****ing sweet hand that is not good enough to call with yet flops good draws and decent top pairs etc, we have position bla bla bla

basically we have a hand that is good enough to play IP vs someone who is going to make lots of mistakes postflop when we aren't, fish dont 4bet a lot so we do not get pushed off our equity ever, and when we do we can play perfectly vs it cause they don't bluff, we almost always get the chance to see 4 cards or 5 for cheap when we want and realise ALL our equity.

Ye 3betting fish in position when we're deep with hands that play well deep JTs/QJs/ATs is a great way to stack them.

When they do call with AJ it's not like we're going to stack off. Most the time when we hit a pair we'll make a little money and when we hit twopair/straights/flushes we'll make a killing.

I'm on the fence whether to do it here only because his pfr is a little low and he isn't an absolute whale, it will likely be +EV though. If we had a 60/30 not 3betting would be throwing money away.

acky100 said:

Okay i'll elaborate cause i was obviously calling everyone in this thread dumb for not agreeing.

guy is 35/15 (this means he is bad C9, he probably isnt positionally aware)

even if he is opening 10% (probably is more because im a nit and even i open more than 10% UTG) he is still a fish and therefore like 99% of fish do, is calling 3bets OOP alllll the ****ing time basically

10% range or 40% range he is missing far more flops than he realises and will be playing fit or fold like 99% of fish do in 3bet pots.

We have a pretty ****ing sweet hand that is not good enough to call with yet flops good draws and decent top pairs etc, we have position bla bla bla

basically we have a hand that is good enough to play IP vs someone who is going to make lots of mistakes postflop when we aren't, fish dont 4bet a lot so we do not get pushed off our equity ever, and when we do we can play perfectly vs it cause they don't bluff, we almost always get the chance to see 4 cards or 5 for cheap when we want and realise ALL our equity.

Click to expand...

see its shit like this you need to teach me dude!

but yeah, the one word/sentence posts from you are tilting the **** out of me.

thanks for explaining.

isnt baudibs super famous thread applicable here?

Deco said:

Ye 3betting fish in position when we're deep with hands that play well deep JTs/QJs/ATs is a great way to stack them.

When they do call with AJ it's not like we're going to stack off. Most the time when we hit a pair we'll make a little money and when we hit twopair/straights/flushes we'll make a killing.

I'm on the fence whether to do it here only because his pfr is a little low and he isn't an absolute whale, it will likely be +EV though. If we had a 60/30 not 3betting would be throwing money away.

Click to expand...

Im seriously fist pumping with a hard on when i see 33/15, it gets a little more debatable when they're like 22/7 but to be honest they are still playing so fit or fold with the majority of their range i think we can just 3bet the shit out of them in later positions and still print money when they x/f flops

As played, the turn is the key decision point.

With the exception of not 3 betting preflop, the play of this hand is pretty standard until the turn when villain c/min-raises the 9. Why the 9? Is is because he has specifically 99? Or, is he the type of fish that is waiting to make sure an A doesn't hit the turn so his KK,QQ,TT is more likely to be good. Maybe villain is being super tricky and is trying to define your hand on the cheap. "Okay, he didn't raise my min-raise, so he doesn't have a J. My tens are good with a low river card."

The worst case scenario is that he has AJs, AJ, KJs, or KJ where we only have 13.64% equity with one card to come. If he has specifically 99 then we have 15.91% equity. Just for fun let's assume we just push to his min-raise on the turn. Is it plus EV against these types of hands?

Board: J♦ J♥ 3♠ 9♣
Equity Win Tie
UTG 85.74% 80.79% 4.96% { 99, AJs, KJs, AJo, KJo }
MP1 14.26% 9.30% 4.96% { QcJc }

I bet you can guess.

EV = Amount in Pot + Amount Won from Bets + Amount Lost from Bets
EV = (8.67) + (.1426)(20.99) + (.8574)(-22.99)
EV = 8.67 + 3.06 - 19.71
EV = -7.98

Nope.

But it's only the worst case scenario part of the story. What if we know that 100% of the time he holds KK, QQ, he's calling our push? What's the EV against those hands?

Board: J♦J♥3♠ 9♣
Equity Win Tie
UTG 3.79% 3.79% 0.00% { KK-QQ }
MP1 96.21% 96.21% 0.00% { QcJc }

EV = (8.67) + (.9621)(20.99) + (.0379)(-22.99)
EV = 8.67 + 20.19 - 0.87
EV = 27.99

Oooh that's pretty.

But, I also mentioned TT. Assume he just folds those outright to a turn shove.

There are 6 combos of TT, 9 combos of KK, QQ, and 11 combos of the worst case. Based on my assumptions above, that's only 26 combos of hands we're playing against on the turn. What's our EV against that entire range if we shove?

EV = (6/26)(8.67) + (9/26)(27.99) + (11/26)(-7.98)
EV = (.23)(8.67) + (.35)(27.99) + (.42)(-7.98)
EV = 1.99 + 9.80 - 3.35
EV = 8.44

Given the narrow assumptions above, shoving the turn is plus EV.

Homework:
- What affect does widening his turn shove calling range (eg. adding TJ) have on our EV? Narrowing it (eg. removing QQ)?
- What if he folds more to the shove?
- Is shoving the turn based on these assumptions the highest EV play?
- Any other question that comes to your mind with this scenario, you should play with.

Have fun.

Ugh! I just realized that the EV calcs are missing a very important detail.

Worst Case:
EV = (.1426)(8.67) + (.1426)(20.99) + (.8574)(-22.99)
EV = 1.24 + 3.06 - 19.71
EV = -15.41

Best case:
EV = (.9621)(8.67) + (.9621)(20.99) + (.0379)(-22.99)
EV = 8.34 + 20.19 - 0.87
EV = 27.66

Final Case:
EV = (.23)(8.67) + (.35)(27.66) + (.42)(-15.41)
EV = 1.99 + 9.68 - 6.47
EV = 5.20

I knew it didn't look right, before. Especially the worst case. Let this be a lesson to you.

Check your work!

hutz said:

shoving the turn is plus EV.

Click to expand...

Have you seen how deep we are? We're possibly folding out KK+ by shipping the turn.

Deco said:

Ye 3betting fish in position when we're deep with hands that play well deep JTs/QJs/ATs is a great way to stack them.

When they do call with AJ it's not like we're going to stack off. Most the time when we hit a pair we'll make a little money and when we hit twopair/straights/flushes we'll make a killing.

I'm on the fence whether to do it here only because his pfr is a little low and he isn't an absolute whale, it will likely be +EV though. If we had a 60/30 not 3betting would be throwing money away.

Click to expand...

Yep my exact reasoning for not.

youregoodmate said:

Have you seen how deep we are? We're possibly folding out KK+ by shipping the turn.

Click to expand...

Yes I did.

I never said it was the best option.

I was just pointing out a line of thinking to get you started answering further questions in order to come to the right answer. It doesn't matter how deep you are, the highest EV play line is the right one. If shoving is the highest EV play line, that's what you do.

There are many others who read these threads that are just learning how to approach thinking about the game. My original reply is aimed at them as well.

Since you're around and didn't really say in the op, what was your thinking on the turn check raise? Ick?

hutz said:

Yes I did.

I never said it was the best option.

I was just pointing out a line of thinking to get you started answering further questions in order to come to the right answer. It doesn't matter how deep you are, the highest EV play line is the right one. If shoving is the highest EV play line, that's what you do.

There are many others who read these threads that are just learning how to approach thinking about the game. My original reply is aimed at them as well.

Since you're around and didn't really say in the op, what was your thinking on the turn check raise? Ick?

Click to expand...

My thought was Im behind but I cant really lay it down because he still has weaker J's and big pairs in his range. I think raising the turn given Im in position and can still get value on the river is a little suicidal. I had no intention of getting stacks in after he min raises.

youregoodmate said:

My thought was Im behind but I cant really lay it down because he still has weaker J's and big pairs in his range.

Click to expand...

Huh?

Logically this makes no sense. Is he really raising TJ or worse UTG? Are you being honest with yourself there? Because if he is, then raising the turn looks even better.

What do you put him on check/min-raising that turn card? Be specific.