$10 NLHE 6-max: TPTP, turn donk

Do I believe this kind of guy???

poker stars $10.00 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players - View hand 1807845
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

Hero (BTN): $10.00 - VPIP: 19, PFR: 13, 3B: 4, AF: 2.2, hands: 327896
SB: $10.59 - VPIP: 24, PFR: 17, 3B: 0, AF: 1.6, Hands: 76
BB: $5.75 - VPIP: 42, PFR: 10, 3B: 0, AF: 0.1, Hands: 31
UTG: $8.92 - VPIP: 18, PFR: 9, 3B: 3, AF: 2.2, Hands: 598
CO: $13.33 - VPIP: 32, PFR: 7, 3B: 3, AF: 3.1, Hands: 118

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is BTN with Q ♠ A ♥
UTG calls $0.10, 1 fold, Hero raises to $0.40, SB calls $0.35, 1 fold, UTG calls $0.30

Flop: ($1.30) J ♥ 5 ♦ A ♣ (3 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets $1.00, SB folds, UTG calls $1

Turn: ($3.30) J ♦ (2 players)
UTG bets $1.99, Hero ?

Have you observed anything beyond his stats? Specifically, what if anything have you seen that might help define the kinds of hands he tends to limp-call UTG?

Arjonius said:

Have you observed anything beyond his stats? Specifically, what if anything have you seen that might help define the kinds of hands he tends to limp-call UTG?

Click to expand...

Nope, I could look in HEM but it would only be to satisfy my curiosity. At the time I did not.

just on his stats its hard to figure him out but looking at them id put him on j 10 suited maybe j a, really need more info on him other than just pure stats

I bet less on the flop. Keep his range wider. There's really no need for a big bet as we're not looking to get stacks in and we're either miles ahead or miles behind.

The turn is close. Could this be a feeler bet with A9/AT? Or KJ/QJ/AJ betting after improving their hand or perhaps Adxd betting their draw.

Really could go either way.
16 combos of A9/AT.
3combos of set
20combos of JQ-AJ.
2-6combos of flush draw.

With these figures alone it would be a call but all the negations based on the way he's played it side with folding. Jx are almost locks to do this, it's a very natural abc line to take once villain improves.

TP + FD and AT/A9 donks on the turn would be unusual for an aggressive player nevermind a passive one.
I fold. If I was to call I would fold any reasonable sized bet on the river.

He's a weird tight passive who suddenly came alive. FOLD FOLD FOLD!!!

I have a lot of trouble folding this situation but it needs to be done. Thats what everyone keeps telling me anyways.

I'm curious as to whether you all bet this turn had he not donked at you? Is it a bet-fold or check and call/make a river bet?

CaptainKout said:

I'm curious as to whether you all bet this turn had he not donked at you? Is it a bet-fold or check and call/make a river bet?

Click to expand...

Good question
I'd check back and bet the river.I don't think we get enough weak Ax along for two streets to counteract the Jx. My range before of A9/AT seems overly fair if we expect villain to come along for two streets and limp/call in the first place. He's a 18/9 not a 38/9 we can't expect his ranbge to have the likes of A3o in it. But ye that range is solidly out combo'd.

I think if he checks the river we can get some value as Jx becomes less likely and we get more Ax calls perhaps even a stray pocketpair. If he bets the river large we can fold. His sizing needs to be of the size that a feeler bet with Ax is possible. He's not going to pot the river with AT.

Looking back I think it's less close than I first described. The assumption that villain feeler bets here is a negation in itself because I don't think someone this passive genuinly value bets their Ax here and his sizing is a little larger than your average "please let me have this street cheap" bet.

I believe him, I fold

CaptainKout said:

He's a weird tight passive who suddenly came alive. FOLD FOLD FOLD!!!

I have a lot of trouble folding this situation but it needs to be done. Thats what everyone keeps telling me anyways.

I'm curious as to whether you all bet this turn had he not donked at you? Is it a bet-fold or check and call/make a river bet?

Click to expand...

If he is tight/passive, then why would he be betting turned trips or better? Tight/passives, especially at levels like this slow play way too much. And he's passive because he's not betting enough, and he can only get paid by slow playing.

Call, use your position and evaluate river.

John A said:

If he is tight/passive, then why would he be betting turned trips or better? Tight/passives, especially at levels like this slow play way too much. And he's passive because he's not betting enough, and he can only get paid by slow playing.

Call, use your position and evaluate river.

Click to expand...

Youre the coach, but I thought the rule of thumb with passives was that when they finally wake up, its a monster.

CaptainKout said:

Youre the coach, but I thought the rule of thumb with passives was that when they finally wake up, its a monster.

Click to expand...

Not trying to pick on you. Others said the same, but your quote was the most handy at the time.

If they are raising, or firing the turn a lot yes. But here it doesn't make a ton of sense for him to bet turned trips. Not that he won't ever, but there are tons of worse Ax's in his range still that he may be inclined to bet for value.

Lol. Don't worry about hurtin my feelings, I'm used to the abuse. And I can always use the help with my thought process. Also I misread the post and thought he was betting 1.99 into 1.30 so its smallish bet and I guess I like the call in position. :icon_thum

Anyways, I thought passives were pretty much only betting the nuts and to a tight-passive, AK on that flop feels like the nuts(its what he's been waiting for essentially) so you'd expect a checkraise. But even this guy probably 3bets AK pre so I've got another reason why I don't think he's got ak, weak as they may be.

Furthermore, I feel like a second jack would be too "scary" for most passive players to bet with just an Ace especially weakish ones. With tp on a doubled board I'd expect a check call.

AA - you see people trying to slow play this occasionally but again doesn't really seem like an appropriate time to bet out and I'd still expect a flop checkraise more often than not.

Jx - and there are a plenty of them in his range are certainly capable of betting out here although the turn check-raise certainly would fit the profile too.

Ad xd - I don't know what the heck he'd do with an an ace high diamond draw plus tp

bluff - something like a mid pair that's taking a final stab, I don't know how often a small pocket pair makes it past that flop tho. No straights and no flush draws on the flop so I wouldn't expect him to be betting out a flush draw unless it was with a suited ace and doubtful even then.

I guess I'm just skeptical that a passive would lead out with something like A9 when the board doubles. It feels stronger to me coming from him but I guess I don't really know his tendencies.

And I think you can add a few more Jx's into his range since he's in the blinds and fish like to throw in that extra couple bb to see a flop.

John A said:

Not trying to pick on you. Others said the same, but your quote was the most handy at the time.

If they are raising, or firing the turn a lot yes. But here it doesn't make a ton of sense for him to bet turned trips. Not that he won't ever, but there are tons of worse Ax's in his range still that he may be inclined to bet for value.

Click to expand...

I think it's too great of an assumption to say someone will slowplay their trips when spiked on the turn based on them having passive preflop stats.

I think a passive -player is far more likely to play straightfoward with their spiked trips than go for thin value with A9/AT. Checking the turn OOP is not the same as the standard flatting the flop in position slowplay either, it's a far more risky prospect especially when the aces they wish to gain value from our unlikely to bet both streets for them.

There are more combos of Ax than Jx and 55. The question is, how often does someone who is fairly passive (not super passive) lead the turn w/ a J or 55 vs Ax. He would have to lead w/ Jx or 55 an extremely high percentage of the time in order to justify folding. Someone else can do the math if they want, but off the top of my head somewhere in 85%+ range. I'm arguing that said villain is leading the turn w/ Ax 15%+ of the time which I think is reasonable.

John A said:

There are more combos of Ax than Jx and 55.

Click to expand...

There probably aren't. At least not ones we beat.

Deco said:

16 combos of A9/AT.
3combos of set
20combos of JQ-AJ.
2-6combos of flush draw.

Click to expand...

Unless you think an 18/9 is limp calling A8o and below? which is too far of a stretch especially when I've been leniant assuming the likes A9 limp calls yet JTs/J9s do not.
With my combonatorics and your 15% ax bet assumption we would need Jx to bet this way a little more than 30% of the time. This is assuming we never need to pay more money on the river which is unrealistic so it should amount to even less than that.

I really cannot justify folding here to a single bet. Villain can have Ax, FDs, and other random shit

Deco said:

There probably aren't. At least not ones we beat.



Unless you think an 18/9 is limp calling A8o and below? which is too far of a stretch especially when I've been leniant assuming the likes A9 limp calls yet JTs/J9s do not.
With my combonatorics and your 15% ax bet assumption we would need Jx to bet this way a little more than 30% of the time. This is assuming we never need to pay more money on the river which is unrealistic so it should amount to even less than that.

Click to expand...

You aren't counting your combos correctly. Even if you discard that sometimes these guys will limp call Axs hands, even if we say that will never happen, you still don't have your numbers down. Re-check it.

John A said:

You aren't counting your combos correctly. Even if you discard that sometimes these guys will limp call Axs hands, even if we say that will never happen, you still don't have your numbers down. Re-check it.

Click to expand...

Deco said:

Really could go either way.
16 combos of A9/AT.
3combos of set
16combos of JQ-AJ.
2-6combos of flush draw.

Click to expand...

Aye JQ-AJ should be 16combos. The Axs hands are accounted for in the flush draws combos. (A8/A7/A6/A4/A3/A2)ss. The likes of Ad6d betting once the jack comes down is even more unlikely than A9/AT doing it. Would also be strange to include weak Axs hands without J9s/JTs making an appearance.

I don't think the 4 combos will cause us to add much to the 30% we need villain to play his Jx this way in order to fold. I think tight passives will play their Jx this way +50% of the time by a pretty large margin.