$10 NLHE 6-max: TPTK OOP facing triple barrel

pocketehs

pocketehs

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28/23/4 with a F3B 70% and cbet 77%

I find it hard to believe hes triple barrel bluffing here. i guess cause hes so agrro he can be tripling with KQ/KJ right?

I think think rivers a sighh fold but maybe Im being nitty?

His line just seems like KK+/ AQ / 66 so much


PokerStars - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: $10.10
BTN: $9.86
SB: $4.28
Hero (BB): $10.00
UTG: $10.00
MP: $7.46

SB posts SB $0.05, Hero posts BB $0.10

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.15) Hero has Q:spade: A:club:

fold, fold, CO raises to $0.30, fold, fold, Hero calls $0.20

Flop: ($0.65, 2 players) Q:diamond: 3:heart: 6:spade:
Hero checks, CO bets $0.40, Hero calls $0.40

Turn: ($1.45, 2 players) 2:heart:
Hero checks, CO bets $0.90, Hero calls $0.90

River: ($3.25, 2 players) 4:club:
Hero checks, CO bets $1.90
 
Aleksei

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Bet sizing is important here. Without reads I fold here just because that bet sizing looks like value so often -- people who don't have a solid grasp of bet sizing math tend to like overbet bluffing (especially if they're aggro) because overbets are so scary. In reality overbet bluffing rarely makes mathematical sense and personally I almost never overbet anymore period.
 
pocketehs

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Bet sizing is important here. Without reads I fold here just because that bet sizing looks like value so often -- people who don't have a solid grasp of bet sizing math tend to like overbet bluffing (especially if they're aggro) because overbets are so scary. In reality overbet bluffing rarely makes mathematical sense and personally I almost never overbet anymore period.

where is he overbetting?
 
John A

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You only need to be good here ~30% of the time for it to be +EV. He's in a steal position and definitely could be value betting worse + bluffing enough for this to be a call. You realize you massively under repped your hand, and when c/c after flatting from the blinds you open up his bluffing worse value range much wider correct?
 
Aleksei

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where is he overbetting?
That's the point, he's not. He's betting under 2/3 pot, which to me smells of a "please call me" bet unless he knows to balance his range (and note an aggrotard would still be more likely to balance by overbetting for value rather than underbet bluffing). A bet that small is just massively out of character with those stats, which sounds all kinds of alarms in my head.
 
Aleksei

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You only need to be good here ~30% of the time for it to be +EV. He's in a steal position and definitely could be value betting worse + bluffing enough for this to be a call. You realize you massively under repped your hand, and when c/c after flatting from the blinds you open up his bluffing worse value range much wider correct?
I frankly don't think he's bluffing all that much (I think he'd barrel it harder), but he could be value betting with worse a lot, true.
 
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baudib1

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I mean, when we flat AQ vs. CO/BTN, we're not doing it to c/c or c/f somewhere when we flop TPTK. Lead or C/R flop.
 
John A

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I frankly don't think he's bluffing all that much (I think he'd barrel it harder), but he could be value betting with worse a lot, true.

That's not true though.

1) If you play your hand like this, then opponents bluffing and value range is going to widen.
2) I don't how much players are thinking at this level, but his bluff doesn't need to be very big. He's not trying to push hero off a Q very often, he's trying to push him off 6x, and midpairs. Maybe at these stakes the river looks like a scare care also and can widen his bluffing range.

It's a pretty easy call really when you say villain is at least bluffing X% of the time + value betting worse at least 25% of the time.
 
Aleksei

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That's not true though.

1) If you play your hand like this, then opponents bluffing and value range is going to widen.
2) I don't how much players are thinking at this level, but his bluff doesn't need to be very big. He's not trying to push hero off a Q very often, he's trying to push him off 6x, and midpairs. Maybe at these stakes the river looks like a scare care also and can widen his bluffing range.

It's a pretty easy call really when you say villain is at least bluffing X% of the time + value betting worse at least 25% of the time.
Makes sense. Good to know thanks. :)
 
acky100

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everything john said basically, don't like a flop x/r or lead, whats your fascination with flop check raises baud :D

wp if you called, also prefer 3bet pre!
 
Ducky7

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Why would we donk or c/r :s

Also kind of agree that we shouldnt flat hit TPTK and then fold it OTR however his sizing here makes me wonder if we are going to be good often enough, i think he vbets smaller with hands we beat
 
pocketehs

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You only need to be good here ~30% of the time for it to be +EV. He's in a steal position and definitely could be value betting worse + bluffing enough for this to be a call. You realize you massively under repped your hand, and when c/c after flatting from the blinds you open up his bluffing worse value range much wider correct?

isnt this what we want to do vs a player like this? like a 3bet pre is close imo because I think he folds like AJ TT KT and stuff so Im going to be playing OOP vs a stronger part of his range.

I mean, when we flat AQ vs. CO/BTN, we're not doing it to c/c or c/f somewhere when we flop TPTK. Lead or C/R flop.

not saying this is bad baudib but what does leading of x/ring OTF accomplish?

If we do and he raises or 3bets, what do we do?

everything john said basically, don't like a flop x/r or lead, whats your fascination with flop check raises baud :D

wp if you called, also prefer 3bet pre!

I did call. thanks.

3bet pre still if his F3Bet is like 70%? if so what F3B % should we not be 3betting OOP?

I just felt like this player was a decent reg and that I would get more value from calling pre. although its probs bad cause when I miss OTF and he cbets (which he does 77% of the time) I pretty much have to fold, right?
 
frozensprx

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I think this is actually a really easy call on the river. Based on the way you played the hand you set him up to try and bluff at it or value bet his medium pairs, so I don't know why the thought of folding should ever cross your mind in this exact spot vs. a CO open and you flat with AQ. Sure he will have you beat a small percentage of the time, but I think most of us agree he would play exactly the same even the river with his bluffs and worse value bets, so this is clearly a profitable call
 
RodneyC86

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He's gonna have worse queens here fairly often IMO. Your hand crushes his CO raising range. He's also not likely to have q2 to q6. Easy station up and call.
 
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baudib1

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everything john said basically, don't like a flop x/r or lead, whats your fascination with flop check raises baud :D

wp if you called, also prefer 3bet pre!

Generally not playing this hand this way but in this spot a flop C-R for value >> turn C-R for value

If you're not raising the flop, then what are you doing in this hand? passive line here sucks balls when we essentially have the nuts

In general we should be playing back pretty often on boards like this vs. a LP open. If you're not C-R TPTK on dry boards then think about how retarded your flop CR range is.
 
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baudib1

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3bet pre still if his F3Bet is like 70%? if so what F3B % should we not be 3betting OOP?

I just felt like this player was a decent reg and that I would get more value from calling pre. although its probs bad cause when I miss OTF and he cbets (which he does 77% of the time) I pretty much have to fold, right?

I'd rather flat AQs than AQo, you're just not going to flop something often enough with this hand. If you're going to fold to a cbet all the time when you don't hit top pair, it's even more reason to generate fold equity preflop.
 
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baudib1

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Here's a stove for illustration:
Let's say this player who is running 28/23 will open 30% of hands from CO, which is probably conservative. We totally whiff the flop (let's say T23r) and he cbets. Let's make some assumptions:

A. He is c-betting around 80% in this spot
B. He will slowplay top set but not middle or bottom set
C. Will check back a lot of his air, which may not be realistic but makes his betting range even stronger:

Board: Ts 2d 3c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 42.705% 40.39% 02.32% 99160 5689.00 { AcQs }
Hand 1: 57.295% 54.98% 02.32% 134982 5689.00 { JJ+, 99-22, ATs+, A5s-A2s, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T8s+, 98s, ATo+, A5o-A2o, K9o+, QTo+, JTo, T9o }

If you're folding AQ to a cbet you're giving up a ton of equity.
 
John A

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Here's a stove for illustration:
Let's say this player who is running 28/23 will open 30% of hands from CO, which is probably conservative. We totally whiff the flop (let's say T23r) and he cbets. Let's make some assumptions:

A. He is c-betting around 80% in this spot
B. He will slowplay top set but not middle or bottom set
C. Will check back a lot of his air, which may not be realistic but makes his betting range even stronger:

Board: Ts 2d 3c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 42.705% 40.39% 02.32% 99160 5689.00 { AcQs }
Hand 1: 57.295% 54.98% 02.32% 134982 5689.00 { JJ+, 99-22, ATs+, A5s-A2s, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T8s+, 98s, ATo+, A5o-A2o, K9o+, QTo+, JTo, T9o }

If you're folding AQ to a cbet you're giving up a ton of equity.

I'm coming on the tail end of this and haven't read the other posts above honestly. But this isn't really how you should be thinking about OOP situations imho. True you have 42% equity when you get to see ALL five cards (and really you have less than this because you left out TT), but you're not guaranteed to see all five since a good opponent is going to double in the right spot with a fairly wide range at a decently high frequency. Really if you c/c the flop you have less than half of that to improve by the turn.

That being said, c/cing with AQo against the right opponents (someone who isn't super aggressive on later streets) is fine on certain boards. Those opponents are fewer and farther between now a days though.
 
acky100

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Strongly disagree that we should be more inclined to flat AQs than AQo, sounds like old 2p2 logic (omg flat because its suited.... but hey lets build a **** off big pot when we have the unsuited one!)

And Jake, i don't know tbh what number you'd wanna not 3bet AQ, i'd probably keep 3betting it even if he folded 80% atleast a good amount of the time, you don't win a lot of money flatting raises OOP, its more of a lose less play where calling loses less than folding your big blind, yeah maybe AQ is strong enough where you actually make more than a full bb when you call, i just think it makes more money per time when you 3bet it.
 
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baudib1

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I'm coming on the tail end of this and haven't read the other posts above honestly. But this isn't really how you should be thinking about OOP situations imho. True you have 42% equity when you get to see ALL five cards (and really you have less than this because you left out TT), but you're not guaranteed to see all five since a good opponent is going to double in the right spot with a fairly wide range at a decently high frequency. Really if you c/c the flop you have less than half of that to improve by the turn.

That being said, c/cing with AQo against the right opponents (someone who isn't super aggressive on later streets) is fine on certain boards. Those opponents are fewer and farther between now a days though.

How does it make sense for us to play fit or fold if more people are firing with air?
 
John A

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How does it make sense for us to play fit or fold if more people are firing with air?

It's hit or fold, but that's not what I'm saying either. I'm saying c/cing potentially two streets w/ A high is not profitable against most opponents. That's why position is such a huge advantage in rotational poker games. If you call the flop, you don't know the ratio of how often your opponent is bluffing or checking the turn. And even against the range you gave, you're behind by the time you get to the river most of the time. You're too vulnerable to being bluffed off your hand, despite your odds/equity.
 
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Aleksei

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In general we should be playing back pretty often on boards like this vs. a LP open. If you're not C-R TPTK on dry boards then think about how retarded your flop CR range is.
C/R is a hugely aggro and very hard to balance line which at any rate tends to result in a fold (forfeiting value on further streets on a board that's unlikely to change). There is like nothing that calls a flop x/r on that board that we beat, unless villain is an aggrotard (in which case he will probably 3bet jam instead and we may well end up folding the best hand). There's no value x/r anywhere on a board like this.

What I like to do personally is to x/c donk turn. It gives you initiative just like x-raising does, but it's an easier line to balance plus lets you make sure that you're still ahead (on a board like that you will usually be).

As for my CR range, I typically CR strong hands on really scary boards (like, QQ on 985 two-tone for instance). Depending on villain I'll often donk those instead though.
 
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baudib1

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It's hit or fold, but that's not what I'm saying either. I'm saying c/cing potentially two streets w/ A high is not profitable against most opponents. That's why position is such a huge advantage in rotational poker games. If you call the flop, you don't know the ratio of how often your opponent is bluffing or checking the turn. And even against the range you gave, you're behind by the time you get to the river most of the time. You're too vulnerable to being bluffed off your hand, despite your odds/equity.

I'm not talking about c/c 2 streets.
 
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baudib1

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C/R is a hugely aggro
you say this like it's a bad thing

and very hard to balance line which at any rate tends to result in a fold (forfeiting value on further streets on a board that's unlikely to change). There is like nothing that calls a flop x/r on that board that we beat, unless villain is an aggrotard (in which case he will probably 3bet jam instead and we may well end up folding the best hand). There's no value x/r anywhere on a board like this.
It's not hard to balance at all. In fact, C-R TPTK and overpairs ADDS balance to our CR range.


As for my CR range, I typically CR strong hands on really scary boards (like, QQ on 985 two-tone for instance). Depending on villain I'll often donk those instead though.

I think this is pretty much terrible but I'd like to know how you're in a position to CR QQ on 985 anyway....
 
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