$10 NLHE 6-max: Tough spot 150bbs deep with TPTK

IPlay

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AFq-65 Didn't see him show down any hands and his cbet was 22% which indicates he may just be running kind of hot when flatting pre. Felt like GII this deep isn't the best play but folding felt pretty bad too.

Winning Poker Network (Yatahay) - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BTN): $18.37
SB: $10.30 (VPIP: 20.37, PFR: 13.27, 3Bet Preflop: 5.00, Hands: 345)
BB: $15.92 (VPIP: 37.84, PFR: 27.03, 3Bet Preflop: 7.14, Hands: 77)
UTG: $11.28 (VPIP: 26.96, PFR: 21.08, 3Bet Preflop: 2.61, Hands: 420)
CO: $10.25 (VPIP: 24.17, PFR: 20.85, 3Bet Preflop: 10.39, Hands: 215)

SB posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.15) Hero has A:spade: Q:diamond:

UTG raises to $0.30, fold, Hero calls $0.30, fold, BB calls $0.20

Flop: ($0.95, 3 players) 6:spade: Q:spade: 2:club:
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets $0.68, BB raises to $1.94, fold, Hero calls $1.26

Turn: ($4.83, 2 players) 3:club:
BB bets $3.44, fold

BB wins $4.59
 
c9h13no3

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What's his fold to c-bet percentage? I dump the flop unless it's extremely angry.
 
IPlay

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0/3 fold to cbet, 0/3 raise flop cbet. I get torn in spots like this where I hold the As because I have a backdoor draw to the nuts but I also block a lot of villains bluffs. I think peeling flop is fine IP but probably closer to a fold OOP. I'm going to look at this hand a little deeper tomorrow and will post my thoughts.
 
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Papier24

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On this flop he represents only a few hands I think. Obviously he can have a set of sixes or deuces. Maybe a flush draw or maybe even a combo draw like 54s. You can rule out AA or KK since it's really unlikely that he slowplayed them with his 3bet frequency.

On the turn there's a slim chance that he got there with 54s. The only bluff he has in his range is a flush draw which you even block. So on the turn I definetly like the fold.

I personally like your play on the flop too but I know some people might already fold this. With TPTK you're just so high up in your range in this spot that you basically have to call in order to not get exposed. I mean if you fold this hand to a raise on the flop with what hand do you even call. Just sets ? You can fold QJ, KQ on the flop but AQ I think should be in your calling range.
 
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braveslice

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Given his 3bet is so tight I don’t think he is a thinking player thus folding to his flop rise is recommended. Now turn his bet size for non-thinking player is huge saying basically villain bets to protect. So fold is not wrong.

We can try to find reasons to call? What is his CB and T CB? If he is as aggressive as AFq says, he will be betting QJ here for value sometimes to protect flush draws. I think we need more aggression stats to go forward.

If we give him 16% opening range { 22+, A2s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KQo}

OP or better 16 combos, FD 3 combos, Top pair 18 combos.

To make a call we really need to think he is stupid enough to raise-barrel TPMK or second pair often because you have FD obviously. VPIP and PFR do not indicate this kind of behavior. I think we can safely say that when hero has A-high FD blocker, TAG opponent's range from UTG does not contain enough FD to even consider it. Here we have :qs4: and :as4: as a blockers. If we remove Q as a blocker (let say 4s) the number of combos doubles to 6. Removing both blockers the combo count for FD is 16. Removing only A gives opponent 13 combos of FD.
 
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Beanfacekilla

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Fold flop. Line is extremely strong here. He is trying to cage you. The real question is (already pointed out), is he crazy/stupid enough to take this line with worse? Like the worst hand he has is prob NFD.


I sometimes fold A-Q to UTG open, player dependant. One could argue 3b pre, but we are obv folding to 4b if we do, so the only thing it accomplishes is defining his hand. I don't mind the hand as played, but I prob find a fold here OTF.
 
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I'm for sure folding this turn, I would have called the flop too probably in the heat of the moment but having the ace of space it becomes dicey, does he raise a smaller flush draw unless he's aggro...
 
c9h13no3

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0/3 fold to cbet, 0/3 raise flop cbet. I get torn in spots like this where I hold the As because I have a backdoor draw to the nuts but I also block a lot of villains bluffs. I think peeling flop is fine IP but probably closer to a fold OOP. I'm going to look at this hand a little deeper tomorrow and will post my thoughts.
Yeah, 3 flops probably isn't enough. But he certainly fits the profile of a spewy guy who can't fold.

I don't think your backdoor draw has any value to calling a flop bet. Maybe checking back, but it's like a 1% draw with no implied odds. Basically the suited ace just takes out some of his bluffs.

Villain always shows up with like Q6 in this spot :\
 
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Brave, I think you have the villain that raised flop wrong.

Ok, I'm going to dig a little deeper into this one. TBH I'm pretty shocked at all the people advocating for a flop fold. I was contemplating calling the turn myself.

Villains value range Q6s, 66, 22 which is 8 combos. He is repping a very thin value range. Putting Q6s in there is also being pretty nice IMO.

On the flop I need 26% equity to call so it looks like he needs to be bluffing 4 combos on the flop for me to call.(I'll have 27%) So I think calling flop is good unless we know villain is never bluffing. Also, as Papier said I am at the top of my range besides sets so I really shouldn't fold

What I think villains flop bluff range looks like, 54s, 53s, 75s, 87s. It could be more than this but this alone justifies a call and these are villains highest equity bluffs.

Also when I was playing with the equity calc having the As vs Ax non spade gives me 4% more equity in the hand and makes it to where villain needs 6 bluff combos instead of 4 so I think it does matter. It also makes the turn A LOT easier because I can call 25% more turns when I hold the As then I can with an Ad because I have to fold to all spade turns. So it just makes overall equity realization much easier. So I think on this flop I can continue with my AsQx, Sets and flush draws and fold my non spade queens and air.

Turn 3c

This exact turn is an easy fold because villains bluff range improves and it leaves me with 19% equity while I need 29% to call. If turn peels off as a spade or a blank such as Td, Jd, 9d I can call and evaluate river.
 
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Oh and this doesn't even cover the point Bean brought up, does he ever take this line with worse or AQ himself? If he ever has that same range as above and takes this line with AQ it is a good call down, If he ever takes this line with KQ it is a fist pump call down but I don't think we can assume villains are doing this without a read.

9 handed sure but I probably won't be folding AQo vs UTG at a 6 max table but maybe against a NIT 9 handed. Sometimes I do 3 bet here against nits that fold a ton.
 
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Beanfacekilla

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What about KK and AA? You didn't mention that in range (did you? read thread fast) Totally plausible he would take some line like this with overpair.
 
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What about KK and AA? You didn't mention that in range (did you? read thread fast) Totally plausible he would take some line like this with overpair.

Just soooo unlikely that he flats AA/KK pre instead of squeezing with his image.
 
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Aww, my take was on UTG. Missed completely he is BB :eek: Bean too?
 
Keith_MM

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Brave, I think you have the villain that raised flop wrong.

Ok, I'm going to dig a little deeper into this one. TBH I'm pretty shocked at all the people advocating for a flop fold. I was contemplating calling the turn myself.

Villains value range Q6s, 66, 22 which is 8 combos. He is repping a very thin value range. Putting Q6s in there is also being pretty nice IMO.
surely Q6s is 3 combos, 66 and 22 are another 6 combos each giving 15 combos. Q6s is definitely in there if you try and claim 53s and 75s are in his range as well.
On the flop I need 26% equity to call so it looks like he needs to be bluffing 4 combos on the flop for me to call.(I'll have 27%) So I think calling flop is good unless we know villain is never bluffing. Also, as Papier said I am at the top of my range besides sets so I really shouldn't fold

What I think villains flop bluff range looks like, 54s, 53s, 75s, 87s. It could be more than this but this alone justifies a call and these are villains highest equity bluffs.
i don't see him having those hands in his range vs an UTG open except maybe 87s, although his stats are loose LAGgy his 3bet % would imply he's got some idea of ranges
 
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Ok, I'm going to dig a little deeper into this one. TBH I'm pretty shocked at all the people advocating for a flop fold. I was contemplating calling the turn myself.

Villains value range Q6s, 66, 22 which is 8 combos. He is repping a very thin value range. Putting Q6s in there is also being pretty nice IMO.

What I think villains flop bluff range looks like, 54s, 53s, 75s, 87s. It could be more than this but this alone justifies a call and these are villains highest equity bluffs.

surely Q6s is 3 combos, 66 and 22 are another 6 combos each giving 15 combos. Q6s is definitely in there if you try and claim 53s and 75s are in his range as well.

i don't see him having those hands in his range vs an UTG open except maybe 87s, although his stats are loose LAGgy his 3bet % would imply he's got some idea of ranges

One question at first : Aren't there only 3 combos of 66 and 22 each when there's already one 6 and a 2 on the board ?

To be honest I'm also really really suprised that so many people suggest to fold on the flop. That's why I kinda wanted to react on this thread again.

I really don't understand why a hand like 75s should not be in villains range on the bb ? At least it is much more likely than Q6s because this hand is just completly crap. I actually believe that villains bluffing range is much wider than you guys suggest. He could basically raising you with every single possible flush draw involing suited connectors or suited one gappers. I'm not saying that this is very likely or would be a good play by the villain but is most certainly a possibility.
You're basically only behind 22 or 66 since I would rule out QQ+ completly. As more as I think about this hand I believe folding here on the flop is just super nitty and on a table with somewhat good players you would easily get exposed.
When you fold AQ on the flop here just fold preflop already. I mean honestly do you expect to hit a straight or full house with this hand on the flop ? This is actually one of the best boards you can see with AQo. I'm not calling with the expection to always be in front but sometimes in poker you have to call when you're at the top of your range, even if there's the possibility you're beat.
 
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surely Q6s is 3 combos, 66 and 22 are another 6 combos each giving 15 combos.

Qs is on the board, Qd is in my hand so he can have Qc6c,Qh6h for two combos.

6c6h
6c6d
6d6h

Is the combos for sets, it is only possible to have 6 combos of any pocket pair pre. So only 3 combos are avaiable per set.

Q6s is definitely in there if you try and claim 53s and 75s are in his range as well. i don't see him having those hands in his range vs an UTG open except maybe 87s, although his stats are loose LAGgy his 3bet % would imply he's got some idea of ranges

I'm with Papier on this one once again, he would be silly to fold a hand like 75s with the odds he is getting. Peeling the BB light is the new trendy poker play like cbetting and 3 betting once was. Also 75s is really a superior hand to Q6s because we can flop gut shots and realize our equity more. 75s has 25.06% against mine and UTGs range, Q6s has 25.17%. So they are baically the same equity wise but 75s will be able to bluff more and make it to showdown more then Q6s.

Even still though, we could easily find 4 other bluff combos if villain isn't peeling suited one gappers in this spot, which he probably is anyway. We can just put KJs, JTs, 98s, 87s and still have to call. The point really is that he has to have 4 combos of bluffs for me to call. You can switch out the hands but all that is needed is 4 combos.
 
c9h13no3

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The suited Q combos are likely in his range, he's getting a discount from the BB. And yes, he's repping a narrow range, but check-raising with two left to act convinces me he's that narrow.

Range = sets, Q6s, Q2s, Kx flush draws including K2, other combo draws. This isn't a spot where you've been picking on him from the button, and he thinks he needs to fight back. He check/raised multiway in the earliest relative position.
 
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I think that the flop is a mandatory call, I mean if we fold here what are we calling with? 22, 66 only? if any of our opponents gets the vibe that we are over valuing other peoples check raises this could get awful. This could be a spot to try to exploit our opponents for there lack of check-raises but in this case we dont really have enough information on vil and his stats is starting to point in the direction of TAG or LAG (may not be a good one, but still).

On the turn I think its a close spot. I dont really get why you didnt include hands like T8ss or T9ss in his check raising range, did I miss something? anyways, I think you can call here and fold the river, people tend to not three-barrel and even if he does, folding AQo seems pretty balanced on the river. Folding turn does not seem bad though, against many opponents that would be the best play I just dont know if we have enough information on vil to make the fold.

also, I dont really think that check raising in this spot is super strong, he is raising into two opponents but the pre flop raiser has allready given up, he could be trapping but I cant find too many combos that would like to trap here.
 
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I didn't put those in his bluff raising range because it doesn't exactly matter which combos he is bluffing with. What matters is that the math says that I can call if he is bluffing with his 4 strongest bluff hands. So yeah, I agree that he can have those as bluffs too but I just wanted to figure out where the line is drawn. I also agree that the PFR gave up and I bet when checked to on the BTN so villain could think I am betting light in this spot which will lead to even more bluffs.

I also agree with your turn suggestions and I think I can really just flip a coin and call/fold and it not be too bad either way.
 
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