$10 NLHE 6-max: Top 2 on a monotone board vs a nit

Lemlywinks

Lemlywinks

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$10 NL HE 6-max: Top 2 on a monotone board vs a nit

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 10/7/2.3

This is a spot where I feel I spew too much (a good hand on a monotone board). First off, villain is an uber nit so I felt his UTG open was a very small range of hands including AKs, AKo, QQ+. He would stack overpairs so I fig'd I'd flat IP and play for stacks if I hit big. Problem is, I hit big on a monotone board.

When he pots the flop, I feel like he is protecting his big pair. If he has Ah/Ax or Kh/Kx, is it profitable to get it in?

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HAND #1
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poker stars, $0.05/$0.10 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

BB: $23.30 (233 bb)
UTG: $10.15 (101.5 bb)
MP: $12.75 (127.5 bb)
CO: $10 (100 bb)
Hero (BTN): $41.70 (417 bb)
SB: $11.95 (119.5 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is BTN with 9:spade: Q:spade:
UTG raises to $0.40, MP folds, CO calls $0.40, Hero calls $0.40, 2 folds

Flop: ($1.35) Q:heart: 4:heart: 9:heart: (3 players)
UTG bets $1.30, CO folds

Edit: It cut me out, I'm to act now
 
slycbnew

slycbnew

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You're roughly a coinflip against exactly AhAs,KhKs as his range, 49% (just ran it in pokerstove, I've never figured out how to copy the output to post here).

His range is a heckuva lot bigger than that, though. You're a huge dog to a made flush, but you're a 72% favorite against black AA and KK, both of which hands will want to discourage a fd. Against QQ+,AKo,AKs, you're an overall 60/40 favorite, so yeah get it in if that is his range. Note that QQ+, AKo, AKs is a 1.5% range - is he really that tight utg?
 
Lemlywinks

Lemlywinks

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Well I had only been playing with him for 163 hands, but I didn't really put him on much of anything else. He really had played just like your standard nit all game. I guess I need to include 10/10+ AKs, AKos, AQs, and maybe AQos??? but yea, from what i'd noticed (It was really one of our only encounters) his UTG raising range was real tight
 
trewtrew

trewtrew

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doubtful he would make such a strong lead with a flush, but he could be making this bet with a set and if he is a nit as u described him boubtful he raises UTG with 44 so if he has a set its probably 99 or QQ which has u truly crushed. He could have AA or KK with the heart but then u r still a slight fav in the hand. i would call the bet on the flop as u haave position and then from the turn u can gain more info. If a heart comes and he checks then if hes a real nit u can maybe take the pot from him if he has a set. If he has AK with the A of hearts and the turn brick he probably check and u can bet him of his hand and protect ur two pair.
 
W

WossaPotOddz

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Personally I would flat call here for 2 reasons.

Reason A is for value at a non flush turn
Reason B is for bluff at 4 to a flush turn

but mainly for reason B. If he has no heart then it wont take a very large bet to push him off his hand meaning you can avoid being pot commited and if he really is a nit then you can know 100% your 2-pair is no good V's a turn check raise on a 4 to a flush board. And even if he calls you have 4 outs.

In scenario A you will stack him as long as he doesn't already have the flush.

Taking these lines just saves the gamble and lets you get the money in further ahead than you would by going crazy on the flop but the shove would also be fine.
 
Mase31683

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Versus JJ+, AK you're 66% here.

This board is so damn scary that I feel you have to just shove the crap out of it (not shoving all in, just bet strongly and quickly). Far more often than having Ah/Ax or Kh/Kx he's going to have Ah/Kx or Ax/Kh. Will he call that? I don't know, but against those hands you are ~ 63%.

If he flopped the flush it's a cooler, but it's 5:1 more likely he flopped a flush draw so you have to make him pay for it. Don't let the 4th heart spike for cheap. Even if he doesn't have it, that's an action killer.

I'd put in a solid raise to $7.50, a little over pot. That leaves $2.50 behind, which crushes his implied odds. If he doesn't shove himself now, you can comfortably get it in on any turn since it wasn't profitable for a flush draw to call originally even getting the extra $2.50 from you now.
 
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Lemlywinks

Lemlywinks

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Results:

I shoved into this pot and he called with Jh/10h..

Which really surprised me coming from this guy, I mean a 10/7 doesn't usually have that kinda hand in his UTG range, so I'll chalk it up to a cooler :)
 
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