$10 NLHE 6-max: TAG with a hand vs Crazy dude with outs

thepokerkid123

thepokerkid123

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$10 NL HE 6-max: TAG with a hand vs Crazy dude with outs

My adjusting to online poker is clearly going well, playing my usual high quality style of putting chips in bad.

The following hand went wrong on the turn, I really shouldn't have raised, it was a huge mistake and one that I do understand is really, really stupid and I can't think of one benefit of doing that and a ton of negatives. If I could replay it I'd call the turn and fold if I miss the river.

I'm not going to explain why I did what I did in this hand, but I will explain the pre-flop action and reads. I was 26/22 after a hundred or so hands, SB was 24/16 after 100 hands and my notes on him were "Not very spewy. Passive. Doesn't understand the value of blinds" (i.e. his blind steal is 22% and he folds his blind to me every time unless he has a hand, even SB vs BB) he was basically a weak TAG, playing for value only (which is no doubt ideal at these stakes), BB was 34/4 but remarkably folding his blinds to me most of the time and folding to c-bets unless he hit. CO didn't limp, he posted, because he posted and just checked means his cards aren't great but he did post so I'm going to assume he's looking to play and is likely to come along, therefore 75s is the absolute bottom of my range. He's also the reason I raised 4xbb instead of 3xbb.

Anyway, any thoughts on the following hand would be appreciated:

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG ($12.15)
MP ($2.81)
CO ($9.25)
Hero (Button) ($16.24)
SB ($31.33)
BB ($7.74)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 7
club.gif
, 5
club.gif

2 folds, CO checks, Hero bets $0.40, SB raises to $1.40, 2 folds, Hero calls $1

Flop: ($3) 10
club.gif
, 5
spade.gif
, 4
spade.gif
(2 players)
SB bets $1.50, Hero calls $1.50

Turn: ($6) 6
diamond.gif
(2 players)
SB bets $2.50, Hero raises to $7, SB raises to $27, Hero calls $6.34 (All-In)

River: ($32.68) 3
diamond.gif
(2 players, 1 all-in)

Yay for the luck of the fish.

Total pot: $32.68 | Rake: $2


Thanks. :)
 
slycbnew

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lol, enjoyed the setup description...

I'm ok w the pf call of the 3bet in position, assuming we're planning on making a play postflop? We're semi-deep against a passive deepstack, so calling in position w a hand that can hit the flop makes sense to me, as does calling and making a play without hitting postflop.

The flop and turn are pretty nice for us - too nice to raise the turn obv (serious lol's here :D ).

How did you read the small bets on flop and turn? Villain's looking for value w strong hands and afraid of scaring you away? When he puts you all in after you raise the turn, that's the way it looks obv, overpair or TT, but I would've been unsure up to that point.

Nice to hit one of your outs, but you have to call once he puts you all in, $6.34 to win 20, you probably have 13 outs.
 
thepokerkid123

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On the flop I thought his range was TT+, AK. I was really only calling because he bet half of the pot, the stacks are deep, I've got a ton of outs and he could still have AK which I'm ahead of.

As soon as he bets on the turn he no longer has AK in his range (like I said in the OP, he plays for value and gives up the rest of the time).

The turn raise was terrible, I don't know what I was thinking (if I was thinking). Maybe he c-bets AK but I really can't see him firing a 2nd barrel without TT+ and all I can represent is a set. Which obviously wouldn't play like this, and even if I would play it like this then I still don't want to give credit to anyone to be able to fold an overpair after we've built up the pot so much. Raising $7 commited my stack, so basically I was shoving my stack with a 26% chance to win the hand and almost no fold equity.

His bet sizing did seem like he wanted me to call, but then I don't really expect him to be bluffing so I wasn't surprised. Had he bet closer to pot size on the flop I think it's an easy fold and on the turn I really should just be calling anything that gives me correct pot odds/implied odds.

I think this hand is a good example of maybe over playing hands and getting a bit too creative, considering that I think $10nl is still beatable for a good winrate without continuing post-flop in situations like this which just seem to add variance.
 
B

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When weak/passive players start re-raising and playing aggressive, it's best to just get out of the way. Sometimes I'll call a continuation bet from them, but when they're double barreling its best to get out of the way.

The way you described SB, I'd put him on an over pair from his style of play. Amirite?

These type of players are often multitabling and are basically only focusing their attention on their very good hands.
 
thepokerkid123

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Yeah, no doubt he had a made hand.

Doesn't mean folding was ever the best choice.
 
U

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Yeah, no doubt he had a made hand.

Doesn't mean folding was ever the best choice.

I would argue that folding pf would be a great choice also on the flop or turn. You're saying the range you put him on was AK and lots of pairs. So middle pair on that board is pretty ugly. If all he has is two overs and a flush draw your still in pretty bad shape.

Also I think that when you're calling a "tight" player with that hand on a 3bet your not really looking for middle pair- I'm thinking two pair, a set, a straight(draw) or flush(draw). I really am not a fan of a bluff against what appears to be a fishy player who is showing strength- flop call seems like he wants you to pay him off and you did. If you were going to do something a raise on the flop might have been worthwhile but a call makes you look weak and its hard to raise the turn even though the straight hit- he CANT give you credit for the straight because it makes no sense; thats why you get paid off when you hit it against those guys and why that bluff wont work at 10NL.
 
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thepokerkid123

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I'm going to quote the hand and add my reasoning, if anyone has reason to disagree with any of it, please do. :)

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG ($12.15)
MP ($2.81)
CO ($9.25)
Hero (Button) ($16.24)
SB ($31.33)
BB ($7.74)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 7
club.gif
, 5
club.gif

2 folds, CO checks, Hero bets $0.40, SB raises to $1.40, 2 folds, Hero calls $1

Blind steal gone bad. I expect a call from CO so 75s is the bottom of my range but when SB raises I know we're looking at TT+ and AK, if I'm really optimistic I might include AQ in that range but it's pushing it. This guy probably beats $10nl because he just plays for value, he's not making moves, he's got what he's representing.
He did raise 3.5x my raise which is a big raise but:
1) I have position
2) I have SCers
3) He's TAG, that means he plays his big hands aggressively, since we're fairly deep I figure I can stack him a lot when I do hit and there are going to be a ton of flops where I can steal the pot.

Standard call, in my opinion.

Flop: ($3) 10
club.gif
, 5
spade.gif
, 4
spade.gif
(2 players)
SB bets $1.50, Hero calls $1.50

His range is the same, I figure he c-bets 100% of it.
TT is unlikely just because there's already a T on the board and TT is a tiny part of his range. I'm thinking I have 5 outs against AA/KK/QQ/JJ and I am ahead of AK.
I'm also fishy enough to be looking at that board and thinking of how many turn cards would improve my hand (a lot).

Folding never entered my mind.

Turn: ($6) 6
diamond.gif
(2 players)
SB bets $2.50, Hero raises to $7, SB raises to $27, Hero calls $6.34 (All-In)

Yeah, ok, I'm an idiot sometimes. Dumb raise, I already explained why in my previous post. Should have called and shoved the river or folded if I missed.

I think he almost always has an overpair, which maybe he could fold but considering I've been betting/raising him so much over the past 100 hands taking all of his blinds I think he must have me pegged as a bit too loose so I can't see him folding an overpair, the raise is just dumb, the sizing is just as bad.

Insta-call to his shove though.

River: ($32.68) 3
diamond.gif
(2 players, 1 all-in)


Total pot: $32.68 | Rake: $2
 
KardKlub

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Clearly raising preflop with 75s is a bluff. If called then atleast you have some sort of decent disgused hand but once three bet you have to remember you raised as a bluff and fold like a pussy.

Remember he has to play the rest of his hand oop so his range is beating yours.

When you flop the gut shot and middle pair, it's not wrong to call a half pot bet but these hero calls will cost you money to over pairs and good double barrel turn cards for him.

You explained the result perfectly.
 
thepokerkid123

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Hands like this seem to be causing me a lot of variance but I cannot agree that folding is an option at any point in this hand.

Pre-flop the implied odds are huge (they are any time you're against someone who will play their hand fast and the pot is still small relative to the stacks), plus there's a good chance of taking down the pot if overcards to his pocket pair come. Granted I don't know what those overcards are but if he checks the flop on an A high flop then it's an easy 2/3 pot bet that is going to get a fold a lot of the time. It's a standard call pre-flop, you just shouldn't fold here. Maybe if you don't think there will ever be +EV opportunities to bluff post flop, or you don't think villain will stack off with an overpair when you do catch a miracle flop (thereby ruining your implied odds) then we can make a case for folding but against your average TAG that's just not the case.

On the flop there's just no way you can fold. We're being charged 1/2 the cost of the pot and we currently beat 16 combinations of AK and are behind 6 combinations each of AA/KK/QQ/JJ (24 total) and drawing as good as dead to 4 combinations of TT. Getting 3:1 on our money, and 16 to 28, that's an easy call (we have only 1 less out to outdraw an overpair than AK has to outdraw us, plus we have a good redraw against AK so I think the 16:28 is fairly balanced). Granted that we have to consider the following streets of action, we can make the assumption that the top of his range (particularly TT) are going to try and get stacks in whilst the bottom of his range (AK definately, and sometimes QQ/JJ) may opt to keep the pot small. This means that even though we're getting good odds to call based on the price we're being offered on the flop, the cost to get to a showdown is going to be a lot more expensive when we're behind which is an implied cost but since we can dump the hand to significant further action (since AK drops out of his range) I'm not concerned about that in this hand. (*)

On later streets we can assume that any betting means we're up against a much stronger range, all overpairs and TT. Now any thought of fold equity is out the window, given the pot size and my table image.
Since we can still assume that AA-TT all play this hand exactly like this it's 24:4, most likely we've got 13 outs and the rest of the time we've got 8. I also think the 4 has a lower value because TT is by far the least likely to 3bet pre-flop, but we'll ignore that for the sake of simplicity.

Being offered 3.4:1 on a draw that needs only a little better than 2:1 (28% against his range), this is an insta call. The part where my brain exploded during the hand was in thinking that I could add fold equity to this, which you obviously can't unless he'll believe you have a set and fold to it (which he wont).

The odds are further improved because assuming we've called the turn there is now an $11 pot with about $10.80 behind. None of our outs look like they've improved our hand so if we're assuming we had no fold equity on the turn then then we gain an extra $10.80 when we hit and lose no extra when we don't. - If we can't make that assumption, then the question becomes how much fold equity we have on the turn and whether or not we should shove (which I don't think is the case).






I realise that at the start of all of that I was talking about combinations of hands and at the end I just ran the hand from the turn through poker stove (exactly: 28.283% against 71.717% for the record) which is a bit inconsistant but whatever, analytical reasoning isn't a strongpoint of mine. You get the idea though (hopefully).



I guess this whole thread has been my long winded way of asking if this line of thought is flawed?
Am I over thinking what should at these stakes be a very simple game, and possibly causing myself to take -EV lines by getting too fancy?


* The flop considerations get a bit messy when we consider that 1) we might not get to see both streets (so our odds are reduced). 2) We might get bluffed. 3) we might see a scare card that we can bluff 4) if the turn improves our hand then we may be able to semi-bluff (which I horribly misjudged in this hand) and semi-bluffing is a pretty complicated subject on it's own... but going all in on a semi-bluff definately reduces it's effectiveness (a lot). 5) scare cards that actually strengthen villain's range (for instance if I saw Ac it's an insta-shove on the turn and any other A and I'll think about it, if he had AA/AK then it gets complicated).
 
slycbnew

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I agree w everything once we get to the flop (except the turn raise) - pf is iffy imo, not wrong, but I really want a read that Villain's spewey to call his 3bet - and your notes say he isn't.

He made the correct play on the turn to get it in against your presumed draw w his, what, overpair? top set? This doesn't look like a guy who's going to spew off if the turn goes b/c and the river completes the straight, and we kinda need him to in order to justify calling the pf 3bet imo.
 
thepokerkid123

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He had JJ, which was fair enough since there's no way I had QQ+.
 
U

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I think that saying calling a 3bet on the button against a TAG with 75s being a standard call just because your "deep" is wrong. I would consider it a marginal call since he has 15x the raise behind (that you can win) but thats about the bottom of what you need to get in terms of implied odds to make this call, and you have to hit the monster- not middle pair.
Yeah your kinda deepish- but your not 200bb deep, he is but effective stacks are about 160bb. So to justify that call he HAS to be able to stack off to you, thats the whole reason you call, you call to flop a monster and know that he is going to stack off to you.
 
Deco

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Everythings fine except for the turn raise. Fancy play syndrome or tilt imo, at these stakes it is never ever worth trying to get someone to fold an overpair or toppair.

The preflop call is ok if he has a tiny 3bet range but I'd still rather hold a pocketpair or something with abit more chance of hitting straight away. 75s is a hand that makes draws rather than hits flops for instant monsters. These hands are best for calling light 3betters as the draws give us equity to semibluff.

At these stakes just stick to set mining these spots deep.
 
Stu_Ungar

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Preflop - I dont think you are deep enough to play this in a 3-bet pot. Sometimes you wont stack off, sometimes your bluff will fail, sometimes you will fold the flop and sometimes you will win his stack.. but if you sum all of the totals over a 12 month period, I would suspect that you loose money calling a 3-bet here with 75s. If stacks were 250BB+ then I see it as being profitable.

Flop.. you have 40% equity, you can draw profitably here.

Turn - well you know that was bad (had the card been 6c it would have made a lot of sense).
 
Stu_Ungar

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I think that saying calling a 3bet on the button against a TAG with 75s being a standard call just because your "deep" is wrong. I would consider it a marginal call since he has 15x the raise behind (that you can win) but thats about the bottom of what you need to get in terms of implied odds to make this call, and you have to hit the monster- not middle pair.
Yeah your kinda deepish- but your not 200bb deep, he is but effective stacks are about 160bb. So to justify that call he HAS to be able to stack off to you, thats the whole reason you call, you call to flop a monster and know that he is going to stack off to you.

This is quite an important point.

You mentioned that sometimes you would out play him on the flop. This means that preflop you have already made a decision to commit more money in a significant % of circumstances. Its not 100% of the time, but its not 10% either so lets say you think you can bluff at 50% of flops. You are then committing to at least a 2/3 pot bet 1/2 of the time.

In preflop terms your implied money in the pot is therefore 100% more than your preflop call. So if you were getting about 15:1 on a call, once you factor in the fact you intend to bluff you really only get 7.5:1

If stacks were deeper these figures would rise significantly because your implied money in the pot remains fixed and therefore represents less and less as stacks increase.

But as played once you think about bluffing some pots, you simply arent deep enough.
 
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