$10 NLHE 6-max: $ : $ : Squeeze P/F - Flop 2nd Pair - Am I missing out on value?

E

Eisenheim

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Am I missing out on value here by not betting flop and turn?
What calling range do you give him?

888 Poker - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: 51.4 BB (VPIP: 12.78, PFR: 6.67, 3Bet Preflop: 1.20, hands: 181)
MP: 104.2 BB (VPIP: 19.79, PFR: 15.94, 3Bet Preflop: 7.04, Hands: 397)
CO: 174.1 BB (VPIP: 37.50, PFR: 12.50, 3Bet Preflop: 8.33, Hands: 27)
BTN: 114.4 BB (VPIP: 35.48, PFR: 16.13, 3Bet Preflop: 9.09, Hands: 32)
SB: 100.5 BB (VPIP: 21.31, PFR: 19.67, 3Bet Preflop: 4.00, Hands: 62)
Hero (BB): 197 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A Q

fold, fold, CO raises to 3 BB, fold, SB calls 2.5 BB, Hero raises to 11 BB, fold, SB calls 8 BB

Flop: (25 BB, 2 players) T Q K
SB checks, Hero checks

Turn: (25 BB, 2 players) 6
SB checks, Hero checks

River: (25 BB, 2 players) A
SB checks, Hero checks
 
skrsh76

skrsh76

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There is not am fish in sight in this table. So I will switch tables.
I will bet a little higher to squeeze 13bb.

Flop I will check and turn is a half pot bet and check back river when called
 
fletchdad

fletchdad

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There are actually some very fishy stats on the table, not a lot of hands but no reason to switch tables here IMO. The SS rock has position on you, but ok. CO and BTN look to be agro tards, and as you get more hands, they look to be good players to have on your table. Position is ok with them as well. You have the one decent reg stats on your right. BvB I am not checking back OTF here.


AJ definitely in his calling range as well as KQ, KJs. He called the original raise and called your squeeze. AKs, AA-JJ can all be discarded IMO (he will not call OOP but 4bet), but if you have reads that say otherwise? TT is a toss up here. A lot of PP, probably 77+, maybe all of em?? (from JJ he should 4bet, maybe TT as well), On such a drawy board you want to bet the flop here. The turn doesent change anything and OTR you let a lot of hands that beat you get there, so bet the turn as well. He could get agro with a lot of drawing hands as well as 2P, so if he comes back at you, I hope you have some info on his aggression with made hands vs draws. If you bet the flop and he comes back at you, I am probably folding. If it happens OTT I am going to put more draws in his range and probably GII.

So, yea, losing value AND giving his calling range that this flop helps a free card is not the way I would play here. Bet that flop.
 
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TimovieMan

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There are actually some very fishy stats on the table, not a lot of hands but no reason to switch tables here IMO.
Agree. The CO and BTN don't look too good.
The SS rock has position on you, but ok.
That's a good thing. Steal his blinds!
You have position on the lagtards, and you have nits on your left. You're practically in the Jesus seat (actually, the SB is, but whatever).
I'd be happy with a table like this.

Also, you can 3-bet/4-bet SB lighter since he's probably going to be entering more pots with CO and BTN so his range will be weaker in general.

(from JJ he should 4bet, maybe TT as well)
Actually, when OOP, I think these hands play better if you just call the 3-bet instead.


As the preflop 3-bettor, this is a pretty good flop to c-bet and get a fold, imo.
 
fletchdad

fletchdad

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Agree. The CO and BTN don't look too good.
That's a good thing. Steal his blinds!^
^^^^^Yea, I was backwards here...
You have position on the lagtards, and you have nits on your left. You're practically in the Jesus seat (actually, the SB is, but whatever).
I'd be happy with a table like this.

Also, you can 3-bet/4-bet SB lighter since he's probably going to be entering more pots with CO and BTN so his range will be weaker in general.

Actually, when OOP, I think these hands play better if you just call the 3-bet instead.

^^^^^^ You mean TT-JJ only, I guess? I was just thinking how a guy like this would play, and what his calling range is, but you have a point, . TT is certainly in it, and JJ as well, it depends, since a squeeze could also warrant a 4 bet with JJ just for the FE as well as flopability..??


As the preflop 3-bettor, this is a pretty good flop to c-bet and get a fold, imo.

comments above
 
Figaroo2

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Two checks flop and turn is usually an indication that he doesn't have much here. After you check back the flop most players will take a stab at it. Once they don't bet the turn we should bet as we may still get called by worse and most draws and giving another free card is asking for trouble.
If he was looking to check raise all along then more fool him for not betting the river and at least getting some value from your two pairs.
Its a hand we are only usually getting one or two streets of value from and with 4 to a straight we have to bet small to get any value from worse 2 pairs or pair of aces.
I don't mind checking this flop and taking a free look at improving a gutshot to the nuts. If we bet and get raised we miss the chance of hitting the nuts.
My play is bet half pot turn and 25-30% pot on river folding to a raise.
 
TimovieMan

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^^^^^^ You mean TT-JJ only, I guess? I was just thinking how a guy like this would play, and what his calling range is, but you have a point, . TT is certainly in it, and JJ as well, it depends, since a squeeze could also warrant a 4 bet with JJ just for the FE as well as flopability..??
I was mostly thinking that his 3-bet% is a mere 4%, so his 3-bet range is basically JJ+/AK, and since he's OOP, he might even be calling with JJ.
Of course, since he's up against a weaker opponent, he should be more eager to 3-bet JJ/TT/AQ here, but we don't know how much of a thinking player he is.
So yeah, he likely doesn't have QQ+/AK here, and JJ is a toss-up.

TT/99 and suited broadways and connectors are his most likely range here.
A lot of those outflopped us, and a big part of those that didn't won't continue on a flop like that. That's why I like the check on the flop.

Since he didn't fire on the turn, I would take a stab at it for 50-60% of the pot.

I would check the river back as well, but I really like Fig's suggestion of making a thin value bet here by betting 25-30% of the pot.
At these stakes they're not bluff-raising in a spot like this, and we're going to get "bluff-catching" calls by weaker two-pairs and Kx hands.
Most opponents that DO have a J will likely call as well, as they wouldn't want to bloat the pot since they're most likely chopping, and getting more money in simply means they'll pay more rake and win less.
 
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